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Post by ElburnDave on Nov 13, 2018 19:15:06 GMT -6
Twenty-five pages in three days in November! Who’da thunk it?
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 19:16:06 GMT -6
Did anyone see the 18z EURO today? Didn't know that was a real thing. I don't know where to access the rap and HRRR past 21 hours. But comparisons to the nam the rap is a little bit further SE than the nam tomorrow afternoon. I think they've been running the 6/18Z cycles for awhile, but it's only recently become available to the public. You can get the extended RAP and HRRR on Pivotal Weather. HRRR is extended on the 0/6/12/18 cycles. I believe RAP is extended on the 3/9/15/21 cycles. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 19:22:34 GMT -6
This is exactly what I have envisioned with my rant above. This is the 21z rap at hour 39. This is the most likely scenario  |
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Post by GlendaleWxGuy on Nov 13, 2018 19:32:06 GMT -6
John Fuller just showed 1.2” for downtown STL on channel 11 news. I don’t think the gfs was even that bearish....wonder what model he is looking at.
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Post by amstilost on Nov 13, 2018 19:32:30 GMT -6
And,.....BOOM  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2018 19:32:40 GMT -6
I like Chris's idea of a more W to E oriented band across the S counties with it becoming more N to S with time, backing up to the river.
It'll be interesting to see if this trends further N/NW...it doesn't have a lot of room to do so but as Coz said this type of system typically does trend N at this range.
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Post by amstilost on Nov 13, 2018 19:33:33 GMT -6
The 'BOOM' was to friv's post, not John's forecast.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 13, 2018 19:39:25 GMT -6
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Post by dschreib on Nov 13, 2018 19:40:09 GMT -6
These "two areas of significant snowfall totals" forecasts will give me nightmares of Feb 16, 2015, until it actually jackpots my backyard. Worst storm EVER.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 13, 2018 19:42:02 GMT -6
These "two areas of significant snowfall totals" forecasts will give me nightmares of Feb 16, 2015, until it actually jackpots my backyard. Worst storm EVER. This made me lol... wife jumped and the dogs barked! |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 13, 2018 19:48:12 GMT -6
And now we all sit at the edge of our chair. Grinding our teeth as we watch the NAM roll in...fingers crossed. Alcohol ready for either occasion...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 19:48:53 GMT -6
The 00z HRRR is beautiful.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 13, 2018 19:49:37 GMT -6
The 00z HRRR is beautiful. Please share for us novices! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 19:51:33 GMT -6
The nam is a little SE through 12 hours.
Not by much.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 13, 2018 19:54:16 GMT -6
The nam is a little SE through 12 hours. Not by much. Guess my eyes are bad. It looks a tad more west to me with slightly better moisture. |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 13, 2018 19:55:46 GMT -6
Looks like Dave picked the wrong (or is it the right) winter to retire...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 20:05:34 GMT -6
The 500mb vertical velocities over the area tomorrow night on the NAM are bonkers
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 20:07:02 GMT -6
The nam output is mother !phooey!ing epic
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 20:08:02 GMT -6
Break out the champagne
Don't even need to see the qpf.
It's going to be unreal.
I haven't even looked because the stacked lift is mind boggling
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2018 20:08:28 GMT -6
Nam looking solid at hr 32
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 20:08:41 GMT -6
Holy cow the NAM is going off
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 13, 2018 20:08:45 GMT -6
The 500mb vertical velocities over the area tomorrow night on the NAM are bonkers Yes they are. I can’t wait to see what hr 36 looks like. So far I think this is gunna be a good run. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Nov 13, 2018 20:09:01 GMT -6
I've been watching this thread for the past 2 days like I haven't watched one in a few years. I have a funny feeling like I'm going to tick off the SOCO folks again with another NOCO last minute bullseye  |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 13, 2018 20:09:35 GMT -6
Holy cow the NAM is going off If we had a $1... |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 20:09:54 GMT -6
I can't believe it.
You guys are going to melt
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 20:10:15 GMT -6
The NAM is going to drop a foot for a big portion of the CWA
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 20:11:00 GMT -6
I've been watching this thread for the past 2 days like I haven't watched one in a few years. I have a funny feeling like I'm going to tick off the SOCO folks again with another NOCO last minute bullseye Nope. It's an epic bullseye for all of us. Just like I said. Drops mic |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 13, 2018 20:11:16 GMT -6
KABOOM!!!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 20:11:48 GMT -6
Holy cow the NAM is going off If we had a $1... Ya we've seen this before, but I dont think this close to the event in a long time. This time frame is the NAMs wheelhouse usually |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Nov 13, 2018 20:12:08 GMT -6
I've been watching this thread for the past 2 days like I haven't watched one in a few years. I have a funny feeling like I'm going to tick off the SOCO folks again with another NOCO last minute bullseye Nope. It's an epic bullseye for all of us. Just like I said. Drops mic hey, I'll take it!! |
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