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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 13, 2018 20:41:20 GMT -6
Hate to be buzzkillington.... But sleet or DAM come into play here? Not for the metro. Low does very well at producing plenty of cold air. Other than maybe right at onset and end. This would be 97% snow with the dry slot not a big factor for us if at all for the immediate viewing area. |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 13, 2018 20:41:37 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2018 20:42:43 GMT -6
Hmm, so that will put some of you guys at 15 inches for the winter and me at 0 lol. I'm moving to Canada. hehe! let you in on a little joke. its sunny and 65 in st louis. it hasnt snowed...and wont. what you are witnessing is a computer virus and a few posts by us to make you think we are getting snow. |
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Nov 13, 2018 20:42:58 GMT -6
Hate to be buzzkillington.... But sleet or DAM come into play here? No neither one of those is a problem in fact literally every single parameter you can look at points towards huge flakes honestly taking the name output verbatim there would be spots reaching 15" In the words of Super Troopers: Mother of God |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 13, 2018 20:43:47 GMT -6
Wasn't there a system last March that produced some hamsters on steroids? I think we might see some of those again March 11th of this year is what im thinking about. Got a surprise 3-4" in Arnold. The flakes were the size of mini snowballs That was a bit different set up... we had mid level lapse rates near 8*C/Km with that. Not saying if the NAM is accurate these won't be hamsters with the instability. TS+ may be in play. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 20:44:17 GMT -6
Upper low is already cutoff and in the process of strengthening  |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 13, 2018 20:45:37 GMT -6
No neither one of those is a problem in fact literally every single parameter you can look at points towards huge flakes honestly taking the name output verbatim there would be spots reaching 15" In the words of Super Troopers: Mother of God Shenanigans |
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Post by snowjunky on Nov 13, 2018 20:46:16 GMT -6
So what is the next map to come out and at what time? I use to know all this but it has been so long since it mattered.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 13, 2018 20:46:29 GMT -6
What are the odds the NW trend keeps going further? 😊
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 13, 2018 20:49:17 GMT -6
You guys crack me Up! Man I tell u what, this board is finally starting to feel like old times again! Love it. 😎
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 20:49:25 GMT -6
If this happens I will literally ask nothing more of this winter. I'm not even kidding.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2018 20:49:29 GMT -6
NAM looks great, not much change at all really. The dry slot definitely tries to get into the area, wrapping back into the SE counties on the NAM. I would look for some thunder potential on the nose of that dry slot.
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Post by REB on Nov 13, 2018 20:50:12 GMT -6
I guess it’s time to put out the snow board for measuring.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 13, 2018 20:51:36 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 13, 2018 20:51:45 GMT -6
I guess we should throw the NAM out.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2018 20:51:49 GMT -6
If the nam and hires nam are correct you're going to need plows and salt tilawn. That inch or less will be added to a bit.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 20:53:17 GMT -6
March 11th of this year is what im thinking about. Got a surprise 3-4" in Arnold. The flakes were the size of mini snowballs That was a bit different set up... we had mid level lapse rates near 8*C/Km with that. Not saying if the NAM is accurate these won't be hamsters with the instability. TS+ may be in play. I think there was virtually no wind throughout the column in that March storm as well. Almost a perfect setup for hamsters to form and clump together |
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Post by birddog on Nov 13, 2018 20:53:38 GMT -6
Should I put on my snowplow yet?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 20:54:04 GMT -6
NAM looks great, not much change at all really. The dry slot definitely tries to get into the area, wrapping back into the SE counties on the NAM. I would look for some thunder potential on the nose of that dry slot. There is definite changes tho downstream. Moisture advection is a lot more flat the closed low orientation looks like it flattens because the vorticity is TREMENDOUS and this thing bombs even further than 18z which was a big step up from 12z. There is definitely an element of occlusion that helps us. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 13, 2018 20:54:43 GMT -6
What are the odds the NW trend keeps going further? 😊 For me, I just have to keep myself calm with this one and not get too excited. I'm really on the northern fringes of this storm. But I'd be super upset if I lived in the city and points East and south if this storm went East of those areas. I really had this bad feeling that 0z data was going to adjust this storm East a bit. But the NAM did not. So I would be happy if I lived East of the river. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 20:56:35 GMT -6
Whoa whoa whoa let's stop talking about snow plows and snow boxes you guys are going to jinx this thing before it even gets going.
Everyone is mandated to wear summer swimwear the next 2 days because there is no snow storm coming we all must pretend like this isn't going to happen so it actually happens.
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Post by pbc12871 on Nov 13, 2018 20:56:53 GMT -6
I have never been so depressed on the day before a hunting trip ever. Had it been anyone but my best friend of forty years that invited me, I think I would cancel. I am not sure even a twelve point behemoth buck is worth missing sn epic snow. God knows I may not get the chance to see another one for five years given recent winters. At least if Lucy pulls the football, you can all won't have to read ten pages of me b******g about it!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 20:57:32 GMT -6
Could we see thunder with this? If so at one point during a setup like this would you expect it. It would be cool to have some tomorrow night on the lead edge down here as it is blowing up.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2018 20:57:36 GMT -6
chris' map has got the ladies talking! 😂
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Post by TK on Nov 13, 2018 21:00:00 GMT -6
Whoa whoa whoa let's stop talking about snow plows and snow boxes you guys are going to jinx this thing before it even gets going. Everyone is mandated to wear summer swimwear the next 2 days because there is no snow storm coming we all must pretend like this isn't going to happen so it actually happens. Exactly Friv - I think Chicago will be the real winners here... |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 13, 2018 21:00:20 GMT -6
chris' map has got the ladies talking! 😂 Thanks for figuring out a creative way to say what i was thinking |
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Post by birddog on Nov 13, 2018 21:03:28 GMT -6
Whoa whoa whoa let's stop talking about snow plows and snow boxes you guys are going to jinx this thing before it even gets going. Everyone is mandated to wear summer swimwear the next 2 days because there is no snow storm coming we all must pretend like this isn't going to happen so it actually happens. I was kidding friv! I have been here long enough to know better! |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 13, 2018 21:04:47 GMT -6
If the nam and hires nam are correct you're going to need plows and salt tilawn. That inch or less will be added to a bit. Already planned to load both trucks up with the snow equipment in the morning. |
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Post by landscaper on Nov 13, 2018 21:07:19 GMT -6
0z RGEM hammers us very similar to the NAM
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Post by TK on Nov 13, 2018 21:08:15 GMT -6
chris' map has got the ladies talking! 😂 OMG - That is funny!!! |
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