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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 19:52:12 GMT -6
Might see some sleet or graupel this evening.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 20:04:37 GMT -6
The Nam sucks.
The way the nam comes at us would be a long period of light snow and freezing drizzle.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2018 20:04:58 GMT -6
Hope the HRRR is too warm on temps. Otherwise plain ol rain is gonna eat into my totals for the first portion. The HRRR has a temp issue that is fairly well known. Plus if you look at its soundings, where its printing out rain would easily be snow. I do think rain will be an issue at the onset in the southern counties, but wont last very long Hope you're right. I don't like the trends here. Nam is warmer as well. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2018 20:05:31 GMT -6
I'm gonna end up depending on that back edge holding on and backbuilding I think.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 11, 2018 20:21:18 GMT -6
Nam and hires nam look ok to me...
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 11, 2018 20:24:50 GMT -6
Might see some sleet or graupel this evening. Radar says it should be doing something but nothing hitting the ground as of yet |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 11, 2018 20:25:04 GMT -6
Nam and hires nam look ok to me... They look to support the going forecast almost perfectly to me |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 11, 2018 20:28:55 GMT -6
The lift off the NAMs for most of the event is below the DGZ... tough to get good flakeage.
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Post by bear1 on Nov 11, 2018 20:31:06 GMT -6
Might see some sleet or graupel this evening. Radar says it should be doing something but nothing hitting the ground as of yet Same here, it's been over me for the past hour & nothing has hit the ground yet. Temp at 40° |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 11, 2018 20:34:28 GMT -6
It's about a difference of 1000 feet with the moisture streaming across Missouri. Shows up real well on MU's xband.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 11, 2018 20:41:24 GMT -6
The lift off the NAMs for most of the event is below the DGZ... tough to get good flakeage. Yeah the nam has a decent look of convergence. But the lift with the upper low is very unorganized. The qpf looks OK over a long period but the quicker hitting hrrr and rap would dole out a couple inches of snow. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 11, 2018 20:50:26 GMT -6
Radar says it should be doing something but nothing hitting the ground as of yet Same here, it's been over me for the past hour & nothing has hit the ground yet. Temp at 40° The radar is not lying. It has been spitting grauple and sleet all evening and sometimes comes down moderately. I have seen this from Villa Ridge, Washington, and New Haven and cannot believe others are not reporting this. It even spits grauple below the radar beam which shows nothing. But flakes do not exist yet. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2018 21:03:42 GMT -6
Currently some thundersnow around Amarillo. Gonna be some big totals in north TX.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 11, 2018 21:15:43 GMT -6
Same here, it's been over me for the past hour & nothing has hit the ground yet. Temp at 40° The radar is not lying. It has been spitting grauple and sleet all evening and sometimes comes down moderately. I have seen this from Villa Ridge, Washington, and New Haven and cannot believe others are not reporting this. It even spits grauple below the radar beam which shows nothing. But flakes do not exist yet. We aren’t reporting this because it’s not happening at our places. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 11, 2018 21:16:15 GMT -6
HiRes NAM showing some convective streamers on the back edge of the deformation zone as the parent low rotates through the bootheel tomorrow.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 11, 2018 21:28:12 GMT -6
The radar is not lying. It has been spitting grauple and sleet all evening and sometimes comes down moderately. I have seen this from Villa Ridge, Washington, and New Haven and cannot believe others are not reporting this. It even spits grauple below the radar beam which shows nothing. But flakes do not exist yet. We aren’t reporting this because it’s not happening at our places. I have to go with Mr. Plow on this one. We haven't seen a thing here either. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 11, 2018 21:41:37 GMT -6
MZZU filling in. Atmosphere starting to steadily saturate.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2018 21:49:57 GMT -6
Goin the wrong direction on the models and nws forecasts. Oh well, whatever we get we get. It's November after all.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 11, 2018 21:59:57 GMT -6
Goin the wrong direction on the models and nws forecasts. Oh well, whatever we get we get. It's November after all. Gfs and gem trying to give you hope for Thursday. I would jump on if the euro brings it back, even with the odd setup. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 11, 2018 22:02:28 GMT -6
Goin the wrong direction on the models and nws forecasts. Oh well, whatever we get we get. It's November after all. Gfs and gem trying to give you hope for Thursday. I would jump on if the euro brings it back, even with the odd setup. I won't buy into something that unusual until it's happening I don't think lol. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 11, 2018 22:15:00 GMT -6
AMA radar is absolutely bonkers.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Nov 11, 2018 22:16:08 GMT -6
Currently some thundersnow around Amarillo. Gonna be some big totals in north TX. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 11, 2018 22:31:15 GMT -6
I have a few drops of something on my windshield as I got into my car to head to work. Something made it to the ground...not much.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 11, 2018 23:27:08 GMT -6
the 18z Euro brought back the Thursday system with snow over the se half or so of the area. We'll see what 00z does
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 12, 2018 0:04:46 GMT -6
Good run of the Euro, best run of the night, widespread 2+ inches for everyone
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2018 0:23:19 GMT -6
Good run of the Euro, best run of the night, widespread 2+ inches for everyone Ya that's a surprisingly wet euro run |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 12, 2018 0:24:57 GMT -6
Has the Late week system too, with snow for the metro.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 12, 2018 0:30:31 GMT -6
Man, what a powerhouse 500 low it has late week. Temps in 20's it shows. 850's slightly below 0.Back to showing a warning level snow.
Not sure what to think. We're within 90 hrs now. Odd situation.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2018 0:35:25 GMT -6
Man, what a powerhouse 500 low it has late week. Temps in 20's it shows. 850's slightly below 0.Back to showing a warning level snow. Not sure what to think. We're within 90 hrs now. Odd situation. Its extremely odd but the NAM, GFS, super GFS, Canadian, and Euro all have some cut off upper low forming in Arkansas then moving this way bringing snow with it. What a weird and wild system this could be |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 12, 2018 0:37:25 GMT -6
Agree, I mean odder things have happened. But that would be one to remember if it pans out. In November nonetheless.
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