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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2018 6:45:42 GMT -6
Already got a 2/3rds clear sky here in Belleville with clouds only to the north. Gonna be a sunny day, which is bad news for severe storms later as in more aggressive/violent storm potential.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2018 7:17:10 GMT -6
Slight Risk retained with same probabilities for the 7AM SPC day 1 outlook update, only shaved most of Missouri out of the Slight but most Illinois counties and the immediate metro remains within the Slight.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 1, 2018 7:22:36 GMT -6
Short range models sure aren't showing much here today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 1, 2018 8:56:27 GMT -6
Short range models sure aren't showing much here today. Latest 3km WRF shows a tornado IMBY, lol. I don't like how today is evolving at all... |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 1, 2018 9:18:15 GMT -6
I'm not gonna lie I am scared for there are and points east. I could see isolated violent storms RIP through here. The ingredients seem extreme plus already 60 degrees. I would say 2 to 4 PM be careful. If storms fore from rolla to warrenton to bowling green and quickly race ne we are in trouble
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Post by RyanD on Dec 1, 2018 9:18:31 GMT -6
I'm quite worried about today as well. More of a gut feeling though. I don't think it'll be widespread. I'm worried about a few discrete tornadic supercells.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 1, 2018 9:19:11 GMT -6
Short range models sure aren't showing much here today. Latest 3km WRF shows a tornado IMBY, lol. I don't like how today is evolving at all... In a good way or bad way? Its very humid down this way but we're shocked in mostly cloudy all morning. Some breaks of sun. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 1, 2018 9:31:56 GMT -6
Latest 3km WRF shows a tornado IMBY, lol. I don't like how today is evolving at all... In a good way or bad way? Its very humid down this way but we're shocked in mostly cloudy all morning. Some breaks of sun. Clearing in the dry slot is going to allow for ample destabilization. WRF shows a ribbon of ~1500j/kg SBCAPE developing along the river with discrete supercells developing just W of the Metro and sweeping NE into IL. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 1, 2018 9:33:38 GMT -6
In a good way or bad way? Its very humid down this way but we're shocked in mostly cloudy all morning. Some breaks of sun. Clearing in the dry slot is going to allow for ample destabilization. WRF shows a ribbon of ~1500j/kg SBCAPE developing along the river with discrete supercells developing just W of the Metro and sweeping NE into IL. Ahhh. No bueno! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 1, 2018 9:35:03 GMT -6
Full sunshine here, except for a few wispy clouds. Temp is already up close to 60 with a humidity of 97%.
Don't know whether the fuse will get lit but the potential for severe weather is definitely there.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 1, 2018 10:10:19 GMT -6
Tds appear to be running a little behind near STL and west of hwy 67.
Based on current trends think initiation may end up in metro east..highland to chesterish area...lifting north
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 1, 2018 10:11:41 GMT -6
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 1, 2018 10:18:46 GMT -6
Kinda surprised this storm isn’t producing any blizzard warnings in Nebraska. I know the wind in the warm sector was whipping this morning.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 1, 2018 10:23:40 GMT -6
Gfs is a nice big Rainer late week.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 1, 2018 10:32:36 GMT -6
Gfs would be a waste of an almost perfect track
Just to be 35 and rain. Ugh
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Post by dschreib on Dec 1, 2018 10:33:18 GMT -6
58/58 in Sparta. Mostly cloudy, SE wind.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 1, 2018 10:38:48 GMT -6
Gfs would be a waste of an almost perfect track Just to be 35 and rain. Ugh Way too slow, needs to come out faster before the cold air moves out. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2018 10:39:01 GMT -6
10:30 SPC update has now shifted east of St. Louis into exclusively Illinois side only as Chris alluded to earlier.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
Member is Online
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Post by bob on Dec 1, 2018 10:47:51 GMT -6
i thought next weekend system was passing south of us so wont we be on cold side of storm
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 1, 2018 10:53:22 GMT -6
i thought next weekend system was passing south of us so wont we be on cold side of storm Doesn't matter if the cold side isn't very cold. If the storm takes too long to eject out, then the high pressure has time to retreat taking the cold air with it. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 1, 2018 11:00:35 GMT -6
Man they just keep nudging the slight risk area further east. Grrrrrr
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Dec 1, 2018 11:26:00 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2018 11:29:12 GMT -6
FV3-GFS close to epicness with next weekend's storm. Temps marginal but it's showing 1-2' (feet) of snow accumulation mainly west of the Metro.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2018 11:38:34 GMT -6
WRF/NMM seem to suggest a relatively decent band of light to moderate snow mainly north of I-70 Sunday Night into Monday AM with a dusting to possibly an inch. Certainly some good mood flakes if anything else.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 1, 2018 11:40:21 GMT -6
Gfs is a nice big Rainer late week. Yeah, however, the GFS ALWAYS gets rid of the cold too soon. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 1, 2018 11:41:55 GMT -6
Table rock lake before and after this down by 86 bridge and big ceder lodge from.last night storm    What structure is that? |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 1, 2018 12:04:01 GMT -6
CU field seems to be getting agitated  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2018 12:04:27 GMT -6
November ends as the 6th coldest for St. Louis (38.6*F) and Quincy, IL (35.0F) and 4th coldest for Columbia, MO (37.4*F).
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2018 12:05:32 GMT -6
Winds picking up here, also see the clouds are starting to break up now per outside observation and satellite. Now's when temps should really soar.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2018 12:10:04 GMT -6
As for storm initialization this afternoon it's looking more likely that not that the immediate metro will be spared as activity doesn't flare up until east of the Mississippi, and even then its from Edwardsville, IL into Quincy that seems to have the best probabilities similar to the system a couple weeks ago in a window from 2-7PM per the NWS. After then looks like the CAA clouds come charging in and temps start to slowly fall.
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