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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 30, 2018 17:48:46 GMT -6
Little bit concerned about the triple point lighting up tomorrow afternoon...if enough destabilization is realized there appears to be enough of a trigger and shear values are troubling. Both the EC and NAM are showing SBCAPE of 700j/kg+ along the river with 50kt+ 0-6km and 30-40kt 0-1km bulk shear values. If any supercells develop near the warm/occluded front and root into the PBL there could be a few tornadoes tomorrow. The favored region for this would be from the Metro NE into IL.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 30, 2018 17:49:30 GMT -6
hoping i can get my leaves up this weekend now that they finally blew off
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 30, 2018 17:59:18 GMT -6
I'm not positive, but I think the TOR watch that got issued a few minutes ago is the first one of the year for Oklahoma City.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 30, 2018 18:37:50 GMT -6
Storms down in TX and OK are rapidly intensifying. Looks to be a wild few hours.
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Nov 30, 2018 18:41:40 GMT -6
Good hook  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 30, 2018 18:44:43 GMT -6
Little bit concerned about the triple point lighting up tomorrow afternoon...if enough destabilization is realized there appears to be enough of a trigger and shear values are troubling. Both the EC and NAM are showing SBCAPE of 700j/kg+ along the river with 50kt+ 0-6km and 30-40kt 0-1km bulk shear values. If any supercells develop near the warm/occluded front and root into the PBL there could be a few tornadoes tomorrow. The favored region for this would be from the Metro NE into IL. From the 615pm disco and a local chasers FB post... "Forecast sounding from the 12z 3km NAM valid 18z over St. Louis is still quite impressive with much better MLCAPE along with the strong shear in place. 1500J+ of SB/MUCAPE with 1000J+ of MLCAPE is quite impressive for this time of year which is aided by cold mid-level temps with dewpoints around 60. A lot more looping in the low-level part of the hodograph with SE surface winds turning more SW and winds increasing in speed with height. Critical angle is also slightly better up to 54 compared to 48 from yesterday's data." |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 30, 2018 18:45:04 GMT -6
Or the fish gets away when you get it within ten feet of landing it. Yea we've lose the big one more than once. Then once every ten years or so we catch one right near the bank. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 30, 2018 20:05:17 GMT -6
LeaveS are good for yards
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 30, 2018 20:38:13 GMT -6
NAMs say tornado chance tomorrow
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 30, 2018 20:41:58 GMT -6
Yeah some of those NAM forecast soundings are pretty gnarly.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 30, 2018 20:46:29 GMT -6
Upgrade to Slight Risk is almost assured for areas along and east of the Mississippi River, maybe even a 10% hatched risk area as well but that's less likely. A solid high-end Slight Risk to almost marginal Enhanced Risk is probably the way to go.
Also still clinching for that low to mid 70 degree reading tomorrow for the high (for the STL metro-area into southwestern Illinois), especially if we can get any significant peaks of sun. If we do, things could get explosive quite quickly between 1PM-4PM.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 30, 2018 20:51:41 GMT -6
Yeah some of those NAM forecast soundings are pretty gnarly. Classic looking hodographs |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 30, 2018 20:53:06 GMT -6
Saint Joseph, MO is gonna have some fun times underneath that low/upper level low center as the system will be fully stacked with some white out conditions mixing with some rain and maybe even some thundersnow (big iff).
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 30, 2018 21:10:48 GMT -6
But will storms fire off along the dryline? If they do they may be fairly discrete and isolated. Definitely something to watch.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 30, 2018 21:33:26 GMT -6
But will storms fire off along the dryline? If they do they may be fairly discrete and isolated. Definitely something to watch. That's the biggest question. I suspect there will be some CINH and subsidence behind the shortwave that pivots through during the morning hours. But if there is enough convergence along the dryline/pacific front and triple point, that makes for a ripe setup for discrete supercells. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 30, 2018 21:58:06 GMT -6
Not sure where it is along I-40 in Oklahoma but a storm chaser is reporting tornado damage at a mobile home park.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
Member is Online
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Post by bob on Nov 30, 2018 22:01:01 GMT -6
trying to catch up. sounds like next weekend storm is going to miss us?
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 30, 2018 22:02:17 GMT -6
There's a PDS tornado warning in OK right now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 30, 2018 22:12:32 GMT -6
There's a PDS tornado warning in OK right now. Looks like a strong tornado on radar...check out that BWER!   |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 30, 2018 22:13:43 GMT -6
Dang thats one impressive couplet
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 30, 2018 22:16:15 GMT -6
trying to catch up. sounds like next weekend storm is going to miss us? Still to early to tell. Its very unlikely the storm goes north of us but it very much could go to far south for us to get anything. |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 30, 2018 22:18:05 GMT -6
Cc showing debris
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 30, 2018 22:45:00 GMT -6
Yikes, debris was lofted to about 15,000ft. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2018 0:16:20 GMT -6
Slight Risk up for much of the Bi-State area for this Afternoon per the Midnight Update. 5% Tor, 15% Wind/Hail.
Here's the section of the outlook regarding our area:
...Middle Mississippi Valley...
It appears that an evolving dry slot will overspread portions of the
lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley region early today. This
likely will allow for daytime heating to contribute to boundary
layer destabilization prior to the onset of increasing forcing for
ascent near the mid-level cold core, along/north of a still
intensifying cyclonic mid/upper jet (in excess of 90 kt at 500 mb
forecast across the Ozark Plateau into the Ohio Valley by late
afternoon).
A residual corridor of surface dew points near 60 F may contribute
to mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by early this
afternoon. In the presence of strong deep layer shear and still
sizable low-level hodographs, near/southeast of the secondary
surface low, the environment may become conducive to organized
severe storm development. This could include a couple of
supercells, and a risk for tornadoes, which may spread from portions
of central/eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois, before
diminishing around/shortly after dark.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 1, 2018 0:56:48 GMT -6
Euro back north for late next week. Shows 3+ for about everyone. Looks like mid/upper levels are a bit weaker of previous run. 850 goes through central MO? Surface way south. Seems odd
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 1, 2018 1:38:04 GMT -6
Those storms gonna hold together tonight? Been making steady progress this way.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 1, 2018 3:06:07 GMT -6
Looks like they've lost a lot of puunch. Given that radar that BRTN posted I'm very happy about that.
Separate item - my friend in Alaska continues to report aftershocks in the 4 to upper 5 range every 10-20 minutes. He figures sleep will be a stranger until things settle down some.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 1, 2018 4:00:49 GMT -6
As that line moved through here we had maybe 30-40 mph gust, very briefly. And extremely heavy rain for a few minutes. No biggie.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 1, 2018 4:47:48 GMT -6
Media reports of 1 fatality in Aurora, MO where a hotel was hit by a possible tornado..reports in that area of 80+ mph winds with storms earlier.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 1, 2018 6:24:27 GMT -6
Baro. Pressure at Lambert was 29.35" or 993.9 mb. Are your ears poppin'?
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