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Post by mchafin on Dec 1, 2018 23:40:57 GMT -6
“winter” outbreaks are so dangerous. People don’t expect to go to the holiday parade and be stuck in a severe thunderstorm much less a tornado. We’ve all been talking about the severe threat all day. Sadly, not everyone has this kind of forum to keep them posted.
Just a question and not an accusation, did the local NWS around Taylorville give ample warning of the risk today? While there was a watch at the time, I’m assuming people didn’t take the watch seriously.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 2, 2018 0:00:11 GMT -6
Thats some strong WAA on the GFS to. Have to think an ice storm may happen immediately south of the snowfield Since the WAA is always underdone, I would already be thinking sleet contamination will cut the double digit snowfall numbers in half. Could be a fun storm that drops good snow for some, but more likely a wintry mix. Not likely here. If the storm is slower and stronger like the earlier GFS showed the orientation of the cold air won't be sloped much at all. The cold dome penetrates pretty far South out in front of this system. Basically if the system is weaker like the gem and GFS show tonight. Mid level winds will back out of the East this far North. The models tonight pretty much have the most ideal St. Louis snow event. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 2, 2018 0:01:38 GMT -6
Have been waiting for a run like that from GFS and GEM. Back in business.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 2, 2018 0:42:05 GMT -6
Euro is maybe slightly north of the 12z, but we are on the extreme north edge. Southern MO gets pounded
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2018 0:45:49 GMT -6
Euro is maybe slightly north of the 12z, but we are on the extreme north edge. Southern MO gets pounded Kuchera method is printing out 20" for Springfield, Mo
Thats alot of digital snow
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 2, 2018 0:48:23 GMT -6
Euro is maybe slightly north of the 12z, but we are on the extreme north edge. Southern MO gets pounded Euro is pretty flat with that... the way just about every storm has been wrapping up- closed lows, would have to think it's too far south. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 2, 2018 0:53:08 GMT -6
I do like where we sit right now. Still a long ways to go with this one. I agree Coz, I would think a stronger north solution would be likely.
I forgot how Chris' storm watch works..it is storm of interest first..then watcher?
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 2, 2018 0:55:50 GMT -6
I do too... I'm going to be watching
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 2, 2018 1:06:44 GMT -6
I do like where we sit right now. Still a long ways to go with this one. I agree Coz, I would think a stronger north solution would be likely. I forgot how Chris' storm watch works..it is storm of interest first..then watcher? It's Dec 1 and it's been a hell of a lot of fun already. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 2, 2018 3:51:43 GMT -6
NWS forecast is interesting. High chance to likely snow Friday night and 80% of snow on Saturday? I hope that doesn't come back to bite them in the a$$ like last year, lol.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 2, 2018 4:48:23 GMT -6
6z GFS is flatter, weaker and south keeping most of the area dry again, lol. They can't all be winners.
Disco is interesting, here's a snippet typed up by Mr Glass:
A large and quite formidable surface high then
settles into the Midwest in the wake of the cold front Thursday
night into Friday. This surface high and associated cold air mass
looks like it could be one of the key players for a potential winter
storm/event Friday night into Saturday. There seems to be a growing
consensus that a southern stream upper trof will move through the
Plains and into the lower-mid MS Valley during this time frame,
providing significant forcing/lift for widespread wintry
precipitation. The GFS and ECMWF have key differences in details.
The GFS (supported by the CMC GEM) depicts a stronger trof and
expansive precipitation across the entire CWA, while the ECMWF`s
upper trof is not as amplified and it has stronger surface high
pressure to the north, yielding precipitation confined to the
southern 3/4ths of the CWA. This is still 6-7 days away, something
to watch and changes are almost assured.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 2, 2018 8:18:03 GMT -6
Chris, there is a potential story about Country Classic Cars by Litchfield, IL. A few years back they were destroyed by a fire. Now, they got hit by one of the twisters last night. If I owned that place, I’d stay home for a while, otherwise I might be struck by lightning.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 2, 2018 8:22:12 GMT -6
Someone is going to get dumped on fri-sat. The question is who and where but I like where we sit at the moment. The trend over the last few months is for systems to get stronger as we approach and pull north, so I don't think you could ask to be in a better position at the moment.
What we don't want to see is for the models to trend weaker and flatter which could slide the whole system more quickly to our south. But like I said the seasonal (and long term) trend would argue against that.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 2, 2018 9:10:06 GMT -6
NWS forecast is interesting. High chance to likely snow Friday night and 80% of snow on Saturday? I hope that doesn't come back to bite them in the a$$ like last year, lol. Yeah, I found that percentage and the call for all snow this far out interesting. That's almost a sure sign the thing will fall on its nose. |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 2, 2018 9:12:23 GMT -6
What's the likelihood the Fri-Sat system moves north enough that Chicago also gets in on the action? Would be nice if both STL and Chicago could have some fun at the same time for once.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 2, 2018 9:21:09 GMT -6
The "good" news, from The State Journal-Register: Twenty-one people, ranging in age from 9 to 97, were taken to Taylorville Memorial Hospital with storm-related injuries ranging from chest, head and extremity trauma, along with smoke inhalation, according to hospital spokesman Michael Leathers. Seventeen of those patients had been discharged by 11:30 p.m., and three with more serious injuries were transferred to Memorial Medical Center in Springfield. No fatalities had been reported.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 2, 2018 9:27:51 GMT -6
This is not a good week for those with affected with SAD, as there isn't likely to be much sunshine this week if at all beyond a few brief glimpses. Today through Tuesday night looks cloudy for all with Wednesday likely remaining cloudy along and east of the Mississippi with some sun possible west but only brief before the next system from the northwest tracks in Thursday with more clouds and some light precipitation. Maybe some brief clearing Thursday night into Friday AM before the system we're all chirping up about arrives likely socking us in the clouds at minimum if anything else for Friday PM into potentially as late as next Sunday. Those shades are gonna get just a bit dusty...
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Dec 2, 2018 9:33:35 GMT -6
The "good" news, from The State Journal-Register: Twenty-one people, ranging in age from 9 to 97, were taken to Taylorville Memorial Hospital with storm-related injuries ranging from chest, head and extremity trauma, along with smoke inhalation, according to hospital spokesman Michael Leathers. Seventeen of those patients had been discharged by 11:30 p.m., and three with more serious injuries were transferred to Memorial Medical Center in Springfield. No fatalities had been reported. And the other one?  |
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Post by RyanD on Dec 2, 2018 9:38:52 GMT -6
Chris, there is a potential story about Country Classic Cars by Litchfield, IL. A few years back they were destroyed by a fire. Now, they got hit by one of the twisters last night. If I owned that place, I’d stay home for a while, otherwise I might be struck by lightning. The owner was interviewed by Fox 2 last night I believe. I just watched a video of it on my phone. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 2, 2018 9:45:02 GMT -6
Chris, there is a potential story about Country Classic Cars by Litchfield, IL. A few years back they were destroyed by a fire. Now, they got hit by one of the twisters last night. If I owned that place, I’d stay home for a while, otherwise I might be struck by lightning. The owner was interviewed by Fox 2 last night I believe. I just watched a video of it on my phone. And Kelley Hoskins was out there doing a live report Sunday morning |
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Post by dschreib on Dec 2, 2018 9:45:49 GMT -6
The "good" news, from The State Journal-Register: Twenty-one people, ranging in age from 9 to 97, were taken to Taylorville Memorial Hospital with storm-related injuries ranging from chest, head and extremity trauma, along with smoke inhalation, according to hospital spokesman Michael Leathers. Seventeen of those patients had been discharged by 11:30 p.m., and three with more serious injuries were transferred to Memorial Medical Center in Springfield. No fatalities had been reported. And the other one? Math is hard.
(Maybe they're still at TMH, but just not discharged yet.) |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 2, 2018 9:46:27 GMT -6
Picture from Taylorville from WAND-TV Decatur. Full story here |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2018 10:17:29 GMT -6
What's the likelihood the Fri-Sat system moves north enough that Chicago also gets in on the action? Would be nice if both STL and Chicago could have some fun at the same time for once. Very unlikely... 12z gfs and ggem are both much further south today too. |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 2, 2018 10:22:30 GMT -6
What's the likelihood the Fri-Sat system moves north enough that Chicago also gets in on the action? Would be nice if both STL and Chicago could have some fun at the same time for once. Very unlikely... 12z gfs and ggem are both much further south today too. Even though it is nearly a week out and the northern trend has been alive and well so far this season? |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 2, 2018 10:23:11 GMT -6
Both GFS and GGEM show a 1040 HP parked right over Missouri, suppression city on this run. We just need a weaker HP or a stronger storm
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 2, 2018 10:23:29 GMT -6
Not buying the gfs and gem solutions. It makes no sense. If we were in the bullseye right now I would be concerned.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2018 10:25:33 GMT -6
Very unlikely... 12z gfs and ggem are both much further south today too. Even though it is nearly a week out and the northern trend has been alive and well so far this season? Yes, there hasn't been a strong high sitting over the area for those other storms. This is a Mid Atlantic setup. Even STL might be too far north, but Chicago is extremely unlikely to be impacted by it in a meaningful way (2+ inches). Chicago has a better chance on Thursday for a 1-3 inch storm if the lead wave trends stronger. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2018 10:54:49 GMT -6
Not buying the gfs and gem solutions. It makes no sense. If we were in the bullseye right now I would be concerned. What the jet streak does is the key to this setup. Last nights GFS run had a more amplified jet streak which allowed for more divergence aloft around here and also moved the convergence aloft (high pressure system) further north. The good news is that systems this year have been trending more amplified like others have been saying |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 2, 2018 11:27:42 GMT -6
Not buying the gfs and gem solutions. It makes no sense. If we were in the bullseye right now I would be concerned. What the jet streak does is the key to this setup. Last nights GFS run had a more amplified jet streak which allowed for more divergence aloft around here and also moved the convergence aloft (high pressure system) further north. The good news is that systems this year have been trending more amplified like others have been saying Exactly. I'm confident that it will amplify. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 2, 2018 11:28:22 GMT -6
Here's the Lincoln, IL sounding at 6pm last night. This would have been somewhat representative of the environment to the south and west in the prior hours when/where most of the tornadoes occurred. Though with a bit less SRH overall (about 200-300 m2/s2 in the lowest 1km). Note the sharp kink in the shape of the hodograph above 0.5km; research has shown that these high SRH sickle shaped hodographs tend to be well correlated with tornadic events. These wind profiles in the lowest part of the atmosphere allow mostly streamwise horizontal vorticity (rather than crosswise) to be ingested into low-level mesocyclones and contribute positively to vertical vorticity, updraft strength, and eventually tornado-genesis. While air and dewpoint temps were relatively low, considered together we had low dewpoint depressions / LCL heights (which were actually a bit higher at 10F / 750m) allowing the less evaporatively cooled "not to negatively bouyant" RFD air to be stretched into tornadoes.  |
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