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Post by Tilawn on Dec 2, 2018 12:26:23 GMT -6
Quite breezy overnight and this morning. I assume the winds will die down after sunset this evening?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2018 12:31:11 GMT -6
12z euro is weaker and south on the 24 hour charts.
1040 high pressing into northern Missouri is going to be tough to work with.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 2, 2018 12:32:59 GMT -6
12z Euro looks very close to GFS And GEM 1040 HP sitting over northern Missouri the Low pressure riding alon the coast. There will likely be very little precipitation in our area on this run
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 2, 2018 12:43:23 GMT -6
Snowman- Airplane is on
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 2, 2018 12:45:03 GMT -6
"Surely you can't be serious?" |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 2, 2018 13:06:03 GMT -6
Yea euro is abysmal.
"Hey Mo how were the 12z runs today? Ummmm...not great." Hopefully someone gets my reference.
I still think it will come back north.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2018 13:17:08 GMT -6
Yea euro is abysmal. "Hey Mo how were the 12z runs today? Ummmm...not great." Hopefully someone gets my reference. I still think it will come back north. I listen way to much to 101 ESPN to not get this reference
The 12z GEFS members still have a massive spread to them. Still plenty of time and plenty of model runs before this one gets figured out
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2018 13:28:27 GMT -6
Yea euro is abysmal. "Hey Mo how were the 12z runs today? Ummmm...not great." Hopefully someone gets my reference. I still think it will come back north. I listen way to much to 101 ESPN to not get this reference
The 12z GEFS members still have a massive spread to them. Still plenty of time and plenty of model runs before this one gets figured out
I can still hear Brad Thompson setting this line up... |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 2, 2018 13:34:49 GMT -6
Glad you guys appreciated that! Not sure what I would do without the fast lane on my 40 minute commute home every day.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2018 13:47:55 GMT -6
I listen way to much to 101 ESPN to not get this reference
The 12z GEFS members still have a massive spread to them. Still plenty of time and plenty of model runs before this one gets figured out
I can still hear Brad Thompson setting this line up... "Hey Mo, how do you think the Blues will do tonight?"
"Ummmmm....not great"
Thats been an all to common one lately
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 2, 2018 14:10:03 GMT -6
I can still hear Brad Thompson setting this line up... "Hey Mo, how do you think the Blues will do tonight?"
"Ummmmm....not great"
Thats been an all to common one lately
Haha yea it has. But on a serious note really sad to have that much talent unable to figure it out. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 2, 2018 14:51:27 GMT -6
Wonder if it'll still be an 80 chance of snow on the update. Lol
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jbfestus
Weather Weenie
Festus, MO
Posts: 31 
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Post by jbfestus on Dec 2, 2018 15:02:11 GMT -6
Supposed to be meeting my wife's family in Branson this weekend. Looks like early indications of a rather big snowfall down there.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 2, 2018 15:17:20 GMT -6
Chances are it will end up showing what is was last night in the end. Lots of snow always seems like what it shows a week out is what happens then.we lose it then it's back.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 2, 2018 15:46:03 GMT -6
Wonder if it'll still be an 80 chance of snow on the update. Lol Chances went down to 40%. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 2, 2018 15:48:27 GMT -6
Honestly I would hold 40 percent till like Friday
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 2, 2018 15:48:42 GMT -6
Saying it makes no sense isn't correct.
There is so much going on that wild upper level changes between model runs are to be had.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 2, 2018 15:50:58 GMT -6
Wonder if it'll still be an 80 chance of snow on the update. Lol Chances went down to 40%. Dave is on board. No numbers yet. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 2, 2018 16:14:34 GMT -6
Gas look better this run huge swath of snow
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2018 16:17:13 GMT -6
Saying it makes no sense isn't correct. There is so much going on that wild upper level changes between model runs are to be had. yeah, we still have to get a stubborn stacked low that's been doin all kinds of wonky things out of the way first. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 2, 2018 16:18:04 GMT -6
I like where we are only need 50 mile north shift for the metro. We can definitely do that. Also looking like a few inches possible Thursday as well
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 2, 2018 17:34:41 GMT -6
Ya latest trends today has the storm getting pretty squashed late week. Might be time for our southern folks to cash in this time. We shall see.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 2, 2018 17:54:24 GMT -6
Fv3 at 18z is a decent improvement over 12z. Gfs ensembles better too. Lol
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 2, 2018 18:05:10 GMT -6
GFSs hinting at closing off 500 across southern MO- that should help pull it north
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2018 18:06:56 GMT -6
There's really no need to latch onto each model solution or run at this point...the large-scale features continue to suggest a potentially significant winter storm impacting parts of the region late this week.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 2, 2018 18:10:16 GMT -6
We must though
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 2, 2018 18:36:09 GMT -6
Pictures from Taylorville suggest solid EF3 damage...complete roof failures and partial wall collapses with outbuildings completely destroyed.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 2, 2018 18:45:31 GMT -6
There's really no need to latch onto each model solution or run at this point...the large-scale features continue to suggest a potentially significant winter storm impacting parts of the region late this week. I agree with 99% of what you say but we must latch on to Every. Single. Model. Run. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 2, 2018 18:54:46 GMT -6
Pictures from Taylorville suggest solid EF3 damage...complete roof failures and partial wall collapses with outbuildings completely destroyed. I saw one pic of a house completely destroyed...all walls gone down the foundation. Can never tell from the pics but I couldn't really see any signs of secure anchoring to the foundation at all. |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 2, 2018 19:16:51 GMT -6
The Euro and GFS are close to getting those jet streaks to couple just right. As-is the southern stream and northern stream energy doesn't phase quite right and the feedback doesn't fully take hold. It's close though. I can definitely envision a scenario where the jet coupling aligns better and pulls the storm further north. On the EPS spaghetti charts it's apparent that model solutions could be very sensitive to the precise nature of the phasing. At any rate the highest odds on the EPS appear to be in northern Oklahoma for now. There's still time for that to change though. Of course, change is a double edged sword. The storm could just start trending further south too.
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