|
|
Post by dschreib on Jan 9, 2019 13:48:54 GMT -6
Chris, just make sure the snow map is non-phallic...for the sake of internet sanity.
EDIT: I'm awake...cautiously optimistic, knowing that sleet is going to contaminate the totals down this way, despite all of the reassurances. That is, if there isn't a 100 mile shift north first.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2019 13:50:51 GMT -6
SREF plumes average at airport right now is 5”.
High of 9”
This is ending Saturday night. Def. snows still to come.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 13:56:32 GMT -6
12Z CIPS hazard guidance shows an expansive swath of snow. Don't read too much into the amounts. It's factoring in a lot of duds.  |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 14:05:20 GMT -6
Im in the interesting position of being the end user of my own forecast. I was supposed to take my son back to school in Cincinnati Saturday...but I have already made the decision to ditch that idea. We are going back Friday (bummer for him to leave home a day early) and I'm just going to ride it out there with him...and come home either late Sunday or early Monday. Good times!
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Jan 9, 2019 14:12:08 GMT -6
Is Festus southern Jeffco enough to get 8”?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 14:20:45 GMT -6
Is Festus southern Jeffco enough to get 8”? Jeffco looks to be in a really good spot. I think we have a legit chance to approach double digits |
|
giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
|
Post by giarC71 on Jan 9, 2019 14:21:03 GMT -6
Is the storm on shore yet?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 14:21:10 GMT -6
Is Festus southern Jeffco enough to get 8”? Nobody is breaking down counties by north to south at this stage of the game....I am just saying a general 4-8 inches across the board... |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 14:25:21 GMT -6
Chris, just make sure the snow map is non-phallic...for the sake of internet sanity.
EDIT: I'm awake...cautiously optimistic, knowing that sleet is going to contaminate the totals down this way, despite all of the reassurances. That is, if there isn't a 100 mile shift north first.
As is that's not happening The low level jet veers over Southern Mo. It's very unlikely the models will trend to where they are more vigorous than the nam last night. And that run of the nam had screaming low level jet roaring N/S into NE MO. I would probably expect a slightly wealer intial WAA push. Even more promising for you is the mid levels ramp up Saturday morning though afternoon on every model but the GFS. This focuses pretty strong lift over SWIL and SEMO. This will be a much wetter snow than 1-5-14. So the accumulations will be a bit less but the water equivalent could be over 1". So the impacts will likely be worse. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2019 14:25:21 GMT -6
12z EURO is a thing of beauty...strong hit of WAA snowfall with the 850mb low tracking just S of STL which puts areas along I-70 in the favored region for the deformation. Taken virbatim, 10"+ through the heart of the area...
|
|
|
|
Post by weatherj on Jan 9, 2019 14:27:28 GMT -6
I even like where I sit with this one. Even if it winds up a bit drier over here, I still think 6 + is doable.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2019 14:27:40 GMT -6
Chris, just make sure the snow map is non-phallic...for the sake of internet sanity.
EDIT: I'm awake...cautiously optimistic, knowing that sleet is going to contaminate the totals down this way, despite all of the reassurances. That is, if there isn't a 100 mile shift north first.
As is that's not happening The low level jet veers over Southern Mo. It's very unlikely the models will trend to where they are more vigorous than the nam last night. And that run of the nam had screaming low level jet roaring N/S into NE MO. I would probably expect a slightly wealer intial WAA push. Even more promising for you is the mid levels ramp up Saturday morning though afternoon on every model but the GFS. This focuses pretty strong lift over SWIL and SEMO. This will be a much wetter snow than 1-5-14. So the accumulations will be a bit less but the water equivalent could be over 1". So the impacts will likely be worse. No way impacts will be worse...no heavy drifting and crashing temps with this one. But it definitely has good potential to have major impacts on the roadways. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 14:34:32 GMT -6
Based on the morning data I'm willing to up my confidence level for an advisory level event to high. There's definitely some support for winter storm warning style amounts. I just want to see more evidence before entertaining that thought. It's definitely a watcher in my book though.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Jan 9, 2019 14:35:09 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 9, 2019 14:37:36 GMT -6
Any chance of thunder with any of this?
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 14:41:53 GMT -6
The nam has a perfect phase and is super amped.
But that's not going to happen.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 14:44:30 GMT -6
The nam has a perfect phase and is super amped. But that's not going to happen. Yea it reverted back to its crazy strong solution here at 18z. I would rather that did not happen, though the backside would probably be pretty intense. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2019 14:57:00 GMT -6
Im in the interesting position of being the end user of my own forecast. I was supposed to take my son back to school in Cincinnati Saturday...but I have already made the decision to ditch that idea. We are going back Friday (bummer for him to leave home a day early) and I'm just going to ride it out there with him...and come home either late Sunday or early Monday. Good times! Will you yell at the weather guy if he's wrong? ;-) |
|
|
|
Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Jan 9, 2019 14:58:28 GMT -6
Is it possible the storm blows its load into the stratosphere and there for cuts into snow amounts?
|
|
nrs2420
Wishcaster
Pacific, MO
Posts: 227
Snowfall Events: It has snowed several times.
|
Post by nrs2420 on Jan 9, 2019 15:04:19 GMT -6
Is it possible the storm blows its load into the stratosphere and there for cuts into snow amounts? Yes |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 15:08:12 GMT -6
The nam has a perfect phase and is super amped. But that's not going to happen. The 500mb vorticity chart at hour 60 looks awesome. Probably too amped, but I wouldn't completely dismiss it either. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2019 15:15:23 GMT -6
Euro is going to drop 8-12" for much of the area WSC, even Chicago gets several inches on this run. When is your flight again? 7am. I think I'll be fine assuming a good flight path. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2019 15:18:15 GMT -6
Honestly the NAM looks a lot like the EURO and GEM...I'd argue that the EC is more amped than the NAM. But either way, the consensus track of the h85 low is across S/SE MO into S IL and the h7 low tracks overhead which puts the metro in a very favorable region for deformation snowfall after a solid hit of WAA snow.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 15:23:58 GMT -6
I thought the same thing, the EURO, NAM and GEM all look fairly similar
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 15:28:04 GMT -6
I thought the same thing, the EURO, NAM and GEM all look fairly similar FV3 as well. The GFS is the only model showing a less amped solution. It’s ensembles don’t even agree with it |
|
|
|
Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 9, 2019 15:28:56 GMT -6
I thought the same thing, the EURO, NAM and GEM all look fairly similar I actually find this unsettling at this stage in the game. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 9, 2019 15:31:53 GMT -6
Any chance of thunder with any of this?
I'll take a closer look tonight, but from what I'm seeing, not really.
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 15:33:37 GMT -6
I thought the same thing, the EURO, NAM and GEM all look fairly similar FV3 as well. The GFS is the only model showing a less amped solution. It’s ensembles don’t even agree with it So at this stage of the game we discount the ICON since it shows a setup similar to the GFS since no one knows anything about that model? |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2019 15:35:26 GMT -6
Any chance of thunder with any of this?
I'll take a closer look tonight, but from what I'm seeing, not really.
I've never seen any soundings that showed steep mid-level lapse rates or thunder potential...just a beautiful, deeply saturated column. |
|
|
|
Post by rb1108 on Jan 9, 2019 15:36:41 GMT -6
Crapuweather says 6-10". Lock it in, lol.
|
|
