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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 9, 2019 10:46:20 GMT -6
outside of this system, much of the long range data is indicating the arctic plunge towards the end of the month.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 10:46:48 GMT -6
Yea, the system for next weekend will probably be a watcher after this one goes through.
Worldseries...sorry I doubted your optimism.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2019 10:47:24 GMT -6
Maybe we need an ordained minister as a member. Friv if you could become internet ordained, thatd be great.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 10:48:40 GMT -6
Heres the GEM QPF  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2019 10:59:59 GMT -6
I wld certainly hesitate to go too high on lsr attm. Maybe reassess after system comes onshore. We may hv some contamination that cld eat into those qpf's plus we are 2 plus days out. Im still thinking advisory level despite the beef but there is potential to graduate to a warning level impact. Surface temps support being conservative as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 11:07:59 GMT -6
12z GEFS still showing 4-7” across the area. It’s certainty more on the light side compared to the other models. You know a system is good when 4-7” is considered “light”
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 9, 2019 11:12:01 GMT -6
Surface temps will not be a problem with this system.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 11:21:09 GMT -6
What is the 12z UKMETs qpf
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 11:21:26 GMT -6
The 12z ukie is a crush job. I suspect the euro will be between Uncle Ukie and America Jr(aka Canada). And I also bet the NWS will up amounts along and SE of I44/64 to 6-8".  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2019 11:49:26 GMT -6
Surface temps will not be a problem with this system. Current forecasted temps both fri and sat is 35 and nws still has snow mixing in with rain saturday....that cld be when lift subsides to the point we get super cooled droplets and we get a period of drizzle. Or if snow continues, it will be a wetter snow if we see those temps, however i agree that if most of the precip falls during the colder periods it wont make much diff. |
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Post by RyanD on Jan 9, 2019 11:53:47 GMT -6
I'm still trying to figure out why the NWS has the highest totals NW of STL. That is going against most guidance isn't it? I can't blame them though for going conservative at this point. There's still plenty of time to bump up the numbers if needed. I think the Xmas Eve 2002 storm is a great analogy. We got 12" in Red Bud. Last time I saw a foot or more of snow actually. I've never seen it snow continuously for so long as we held on to the backside def snow for a long time albeit a light snow. I think areas from STL south are in the best position though the further south they'll be sleet some sleet contamination.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 11:53:55 GMT -6
I think widespread 4" to 8" is a solid...safe forecast....with a definite mix with sleet in areas I mentioned earlier. Other than the initial period of precip onset and wetbulbing...when a mix of rain, sleet and snow is likely...it should be all snow along I70...and north.
I will hold to my guns with mixing of snow and sleet south of a Cuba...to Farmington...to Salem IL line. But even with that mixing... totals of 4-8 still seem reasonable....to cover the range of possibilities.
I suspect the GFS is not handling the deformation zone well...and I think at least a 1-3 inch def zone is possible...and that is accounted for in my 4-8. If the def zone is more robust and slower to translate east...then a few 10" lolipops are possible in areas of greatest overlap between the WAA snow and def zone snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2019 12:03:58 GMT -6
I think widespread 4" to 8" is a solid...safe forecast....with a definite mix with sleet in areas I mentioned earlier. Other than the initial period of precip onset and wetbulbing...when a mix of rain, sleet and snow is likely...it should be all snow along I70...and north. I will hold to my guns with mixing of snow and sleet south of a Cuba...to Farmington...to Salem IL line. But even with that mixing... totals of 4-8 still seem reasonable....to cover the range of possibilities. I suspect the GFS is not handling the deformation zone well...and I think at least a 1-3 inch def zone is possible...and that is accounted for in my 4-8. If the def zone is more robust and slower to translate east...then a few 10" lolipops are possible in areas of greatest overlap between the WAA snow and def zone snow. Agree with all points...that crossover looks to be right around the metro or JUST S of the city right now. The deformation/long duration is what would push this into warning criteria...and that's certainly possible. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 9, 2019 12:07:02 GMT -6
That Channel that does the Weather 24 hours has 5-8 inch for the area.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Jan 9, 2019 12:08:54 GMT -6
I think widespread 4" to 8" is a solid...safe forecast....with a definite mix with sleet in areas I mentioned earlier. Other than the initial period of precip onset and wetbulbing...when a mix of rain, sleet and snow is likely...it should be all snow along I70...and north. I will hold to my guns with mixing of snow and sleet south of a Cuba...to Farmington...to Salem IL line. But even with that mixing... totals of 4-8 still seem reasonable....to cover the range of possibilities. I suspect the GFS is not handling the deformation zone well...and I think at least a 1-3 inch def zone is possible...and that is accounted for in my 4-8. If the def zone is more robust and slower to translate east...then a few 10" lolipops are possible in areas of greatest overlap between the WAA snow and def zone snow. Not used to seeing you go over 5 inches possible very often. Definitely makes a person take notice. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2019 12:09:56 GMT -6
12 gfs on the noaa site does try to warm the ams up early next week, with the snowcover temps at the surface will lag but a small disturbance pops up mid week bringing a cold front and light precip with it then during this timeframe beyond that a couple important storm systems further out in fantasy periods. This board will stay engaged for a time based on what im seeing. This emerging pattern could mean business.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 12:10:39 GMT -6
Maybe we'll seem some Watches go up with the afternoon package if not tomorrow morning's.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Jan 9, 2019 12:10:53 GMT -6
what does 12z Euro look like
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 9, 2019 12:11:49 GMT -6
Anyone remember me asking for one good snow before the end of the season on the last Thread?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 12:12:52 GMT -6
Maybe we'll seem some Watches go up with the afternoon package if not tomorrow morning's. They usually try to put watches up 48 hours before the event so this afternoon would make sense. I could understand them waiting until tomorrow morning to |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 12:13:37 GMT -6
what does 12z Euro look like In Frivs words..."crush job" |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 12:13:52 GMT -6
what does 12z Euro look like Doesn't go out that far yet. Only up to Thursday AM. Ask again in about 30 mins. Then again if it's good you probably won't have to as surely someone will spill the beans. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 12:14:37 GMT -6
what does 12z Euro look like In Frivs words..."crush job" Must have the pay-for version giving you faster access? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2019 12:15:23 GMT -6
I need "Bone Crusher"
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 12:16:05 GMT -6
OMG...y’all gunna like the EURO holding to its guns!
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2019 12:16:15 GMT -6
This is turning out to be the best weekend ever... Baby born Friday morning and then snow!
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 9, 2019 12:19:26 GMT -6
OMG...y’all gunna like the EURO holding to its guns! Still showing double digits for a large area centered on the metro |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 12:19:56 GMT -6
Euro is going to drop 8-12" for much of the area
WSC, even Chicago gets several inches on this run. When is your flight again?
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 9, 2019 12:25:55 GMT -6
Holds on to the def zone into Sunday evening.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 12:26:20 GMT -6
Euro drops warning level snow as far north as Des Moins and as far south as Fredricktown. That's a massive snow field
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