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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2019 12:32:39 GMT -6
62 Degrees already today....another snow falling on warm ground tomorrow. Ground will cool significantly tonight and tomorrow with temps in the 20’s |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 14, 2019 12:33:25 GMT -6
62 Degrees already today....another snow falling on warm ground tomorrow. 20° tonight |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 14, 2019 12:40:26 GMT -6
62 Degrees already today....another snow falling on warm ground tomorrow. 20° tonight It wont take long to cool the ground off. A few nights ago the ground had frozen pretty well by 10 pm. when I took the dogs out. Also, the flash freeze following the rain last week are good examples. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2019 12:48:06 GMT -6
It wont take long to cool the ground off. A few nights ago the ground had frozen pretty well by 10 pm. when I took the dogs out. Also, the flash freeze following the rain last week are good examples. Concrete has a low specific heat capacity anyway. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 14, 2019 12:49:02 GMT -6
This winter won't be epic for me unless I get a good snowpacked road in front of my house which will be hard to get now unless the snow arrives at night. Despite seeing 18" so far I've still not had a snowpacked road. It has either been wet or at best partially packed. Ideally I wanted a 6+" snowfall with snowpacked roads followed by subzero temps but it's too late in the season to realistically expect that to happen. So far I give this winter a B+. I agree, and likewise for me. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 12:51:37 GMT -6
Not sure what the soil temps are 2 or 4 inches down, but with it being around 20 tonight surface temps shouldnt be a problem. Yard looks like ots been through a monsoon though, its so damn wet. Hopefully that firms up before the snow or..eeeww.
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Feb 14, 2019 13:22:14 GMT -6
Soil temp on sand based field 4 inches  |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 14, 2019 13:29:38 GMT -6
Based on the Disco out of KC, it looks like they may win the jackpot from this storm. Currently a WWA, with the possibility of upgrading to Winter Storm Watch around KC.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2019 13:32:29 GMT -6
The ground still had frost in it yesterday underneath the inch or two of slop on top...I'm not too worried about ground temps tomorrow but the DAM is concerning.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2019 13:44:23 GMT -6
18Z HRRR steady as she goes.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2019 14:00:37 GMT -6
Getting ready for FB live... standby
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 14, 2019 14:02:54 GMT -6
Great Chris... I'm at the dentist getting my crown cemented.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2019 14:04:02 GMT -6
NAM looks good this run
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 14, 2019 14:12:23 GMT -6
So close, yet so far. very sharp gradient with a couple inches here and 6-8" just south of the metro. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 14:12:52 GMT -6
It's ok. I still think the Vort will tighten up a bit and we get better fronto into the metro. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2019 14:15:02 GMT -6
So close, yet so far. very sharp gradient with a couple inches here and 6-8" just south of the metro. Dry air is really going to put up a fight from the metro points N and NE Certainly increases the bust potential in the metro a bit |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 14:15:10 GMT -6
So close, yet so far. very sharp gradient with a couple inches here and 6-8" just south of the metro. Don't think there is 6-8 there. Looks like it mixes just South of STL. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2019 14:22:25 GMT -6
It’s funny how it’s turning out, 24 hours ago it was still bone dry for our area now it is the wettest of all models
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2019 14:22:54 GMT -6
Hi res looks better.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2019 14:23:11 GMT -6
It’s funny how it’s turning out, 24 hours ago it was still bone dry for our area now it is the wettest of all models Never a doubt |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 14, 2019 14:32:28 GMT -6
What didChris say on his live?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2019 14:38:06 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2019 14:39:46 GMT -6
15Z SREF is at 2.7" (not including Sunday potential). Now that the NAM is giving us it's blessing I think this is a pretty solid bet. Bust potential for the west and south is on the lower side. I still think bust potential at the airport is higher here because a shift south would quickly put the airport in the dry zone.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 14:40:53 GMT -6
Jack pot jackpot jackpot...no whammy no whammy no whammy. STOP
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 14, 2019 14:56:02 GMT -6
I’ll take the NAM for $1,000 please! Good lord that’s pretty incredible to see it show that much snow after sampling in reliability timeframe. Really liking my 3-5” benchmark now.
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Post by jkfriedmann on Feb 14, 2019 15:02:09 GMT -6
WWA is up!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2019 15:02:12 GMT -6
The 00z will have a full sample...the AM raobs did not...it was still offshore.
The trend to watch will be speed of onset. RPM...and now the Hrrr speeding things up with an onset time close to noon...if not a bit earlier for STL proper.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 14, 2019 15:14:02 GMT -6
In and out during daylight hours and alot of dry air to overcome. Chris the onset, is that virga for a few hours starting at onset? Or does onset reflect that enough saturation has happened for precip?
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 14, 2019 15:19:31 GMT -6
Model agreement is just about as good as it’s going to get. Ensembles, globals, and mesoscale.
Metro and south appear to be the big winners.
Only models showing a further north solution is the Canadian high resolution version of the 3K NAM (HRDPS), the ICON, and I guess you could make a case for the GEPS being a tad north as well.
We’ll have to see what the 00z suite brings.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 14, 2019 15:20:12 GMT -6
Really hoping for a slight NE jog with this evening's runs...some of the models track the vort max pretty far N into MO...consensus is from roughly Sedalia to Farmington which would put the Metro right in the axis of heavier snow. The mid-level Fgen also seems to set up roughly along 70 in MO before sliding a bit SE with time.
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