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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 11, 2019 9:23:06 GMT -6
Think it’s time for a new Thread?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 11, 2019 10:43:53 GMT -6
The gfs has an impulse around spring equinox that looks favorable for snow very close to here. But this time of year,with such rapid changes taking place, its hard to say. There is an upward trend in the forecasted nao just prior to the period of interest. The cpc does forecast cold dry conditions relative to normals for the next 2 weeks so theres a chance. Taking it all in, i wld say, id have to be surprised to see any real significant impactful storm, but perhaps an episode or two of light snow with less than significant impact is possible if i had to stick my neck out. It does look like with the emerging pattern we cld start a drying out process in terms of precip. For river stages, thats a different story.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 11, 2019 10:48:45 GMT -6
The latest i remember accumulating snow was on april 16. I believe that happened in 1983 but cant say for sure. I was on I55 at that evening and it was snowing hard with big flakes and the intensity was enough to turn the ground white.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 11, 2019 11:49:46 GMT -6
Going for my first "walk" this afternoon before the rains arrive.
Hoping I can at least make it into a mile!
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 11, 2019 12:18:06 GMT -6
The gfs has an impulse around spring equinox that looks favorable for snow very close to here. But this time of year,with such rapid changes taking place, its hard to say. There is an upward trend in the forecasted nao just prior to the period of interest. The cpc does forecast cold dry conditions relative to normals for the next 2 weeks so theres a chance. Taking it all in, i wld say, id have to be surprised to see any real significant impactful storm, but perhaps an episode or two of light snow with less than significant impact is possible if i had to stick my neck out. It does look like with the emerging pattern we cld start a drying out process in terms of precip. For river stages, thats a different story. The NAO hasn’t been favorable for most of the season. The EPO, PNA, and MJO have been the driving forces for our sensible weather this winter season. However, I still believe Ole Man Winter still has a last gasp. |
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Post by REB on Mar 11, 2019 12:29:05 GMT -6
Going for my first "walk" this afternoon before the rains arrive. Hoping I can at least make it into a mile! Good for you. Be careful. |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 11, 2019 12:53:13 GMT -6
I'm sure many of you noticed the Spring flood outlook was updated a few days ago. Here's some snippets from the outlook text.
Between Quincy and Chester the probabilities of exceeding major flood stage on the Mississippi this Spring are 45-93% depending on gauge site. For context, historical values range from 5-25%.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 11, 2019 13:56:27 GMT -6
The wife and I are moving back into our home in St Clair the next few weeks. The record flood of 2017 caused us to have to gut our entire house. We are finishing up the final touches this week and then moving in. All this flood potential has us spooked. Never has water gotten into our living quarters of our house until 2017. This is the Meremac river and we use the Sullivan flood gauge to watch the levels. I know the Mississippi and MO rivers are going into major flood because of the snow up north. Should we be really concerned? If we flood again this year I’m done. I can’t go through this again. We will buy a new house if that is the case. I did 99 percent of all the rebuild myself this last year and a half. Our house is beautiful and has river access. We sit 32 feet above the river. Just exhausted and tired of living in Grandmas basement out of boxes. Thoughts?
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 11, 2019 14:47:20 GMT -6
The wife and I are moving back into our home in St Clair the next few weeks. The record flood of 2017 caused us to have to gut our entire house. We are finishing up the final touches this week and then moving in. All this flood potential has us spooked. Never has water gotten into our living quarters of our house until 2017. This is the Meremac river and we use the Sullivan flood gauge to watch the levels. I know the Mississippi and MO rivers are going into major flood because of the snow up north. Should we be really concerned? If we flood again this year I’m done. I can’t go through this again. We will buy a new house if that is the case. I did 99 percent of all the rebuild myself this last year and a half. Our house is beautiful and has river access. We sit 32 feet above the river. Just exhausted and tired of living in Grandmas basement out of boxes. Thoughts? At what level in relation to the Sullivan gauge do you start having problems? |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 11, 2019 14:53:28 GMT -6
Basement and yard goes under around 26 ft. 32-35 is when big issues start.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 11, 2019 15:13:18 GMT -6
I'm certainly not the most knowledgeable person on river forecasting...just something I've never personally been too concerned about or studied. But for secondary rivers like the Meremac I would take the outlooks with a bigger grain of salt because flooding can be a very influenced by local weather and all it takes is for one major rain event or a series of moderate events hardly forecast-able more than 7 days out to put those rivers into major flood stage. However, clearly the secondary river basins must be preconditioned right now for flooding this Spring since the Winter was very wet and soil moisture is running high. Now the Spring flood outlook for the Meremac lists <5% chance of exceeding major flood stage at Sullivan, but as you go downstream those probabilities go way way up. It looks like 32+ft at Sullivan has only happened 4 times since the early 1900s for what's it's worth.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 11, 2019 18:00:37 GMT -6
Yep. Scary thing is 2 big ones in 2015 and 2017. I agree though should be dependent on rain events. That’s pretty far for Mississippi River backup water
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Post by mosue56 on Mar 11, 2019 20:22:02 GMT -6
Anyone hearing the spring peepers? They sound wonderful!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 11, 2019 20:25:38 GMT -6
Anyone hearing the spring peepers? They sound wonderful! Been hearing them around daybreak the last few weeks. Sunday was the first I noticed them in the middle of the day. And you're right - they make even dreary days cheerier. |
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 11, 2019 21:49:37 GMT -6
NAM has some interesting soundings here Thursday morning.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 11, 2019 22:37:55 GMT -6
NAM has some interesting soundings here Thursday morning. Wednesday night into Thursday morning has the potential for some marginal severe weather around here. These big powerhouse lows always seem to get something going |
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 12, 2019 2:03:00 GMT -6
Morning shifts make me wish I was a coffee person.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 12, 2019 2:03:42 GMT -6
I also just tried to drink water out of my capped water bottle. It's going to be a long day...
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 12, 2019 5:01:23 GMT -6
Really starting to slow down in here, sad news......
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 12, 2019 5:11:13 GMT -6
Rest of March doesn’t look to be much of a chance for snow or wintry weather.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 12, 2019 8:46:10 GMT -6
Rest of March doesn’t look to be much of a chance for snow or wintry weather. March looks to go out like a Lamb after a Lion start. Should average near to slightly above normal temp-wise for the month with a drier pattern or at least not as wet pattern going forward after Wednesday Night/Thursday. April may see things cool down again as the MJO goes back into Phases 8,1, and 2 with the last two colder phases for the first half of the month with Spring/early Summer in full swing afterwards. Does appear snow should be about done for south of I-44/I-70 for the season, certainly anything accumulating. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Mar 12, 2019 9:01:02 GMT -6
Considering March up here came in like the Abominable Snowman I am ready for warm. March needs to go out like a docile lamb. That is laying under a heat lamp.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 12, 2019 9:52:21 GMT -6
NAM has some interesting soundings here Thursday morning. Wednesday night into Thursday morning has the potential for some marginal severe weather around here. These big powerhouse lows always seem to get something going The biggest limiting factor is weak mid-level lapse rates...generally below 6*C/km. But enough low-level moisture exists for adequate destabilization if any clearing develops during the day which looks likely, IMO. I still expect a forced squall/QLCS to develop with this system with at least a marginal severe threat.
NAM also shows a lot of SNSH activity in the cyclonic flow behind the departing cyclone Thursday PM/Friday AM.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 12, 2019 11:08:52 GMT -6
GFS gets the Plains storm below 970mb now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 12, 2019 11:56:17 GMT -6
I'm actually glad winter is done. It was a lot of fun with several good snows with some memorable characteristics from each of them. Wouldn't be surprised to see flakes in the air one more time at some point, but it feels like we've turned the corner.
Looking at Thursday - those winds might eclipse this past weekend's.
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Mar 12, 2019 12:20:33 GMT -6
Wow under a Blizzard Warning now! This may be the strongest winter storm I will have ever experienced.
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Mar 12, 2019 12:23:18 GMT -6
The strongest of the winds look to be out on the plains out towards Limon where gusts could reach 80mph. But gusts near 60 with heavy snow would be pretty epic as well. Let’s see if it comes together like it’s supoosed to. When you have a storm this strong usually the models aren’t capturing it fully.
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 12, 2019 12:41:42 GMT -6
I may be and hope I am totally wrong but I would not rule out hurricane force winds in st.louis Thursday morning. This storm is quite angry
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