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Post by cozpregon on Apr 15, 2019 10:48:05 GMT -6
NAM shows some elevated storms with hail potential overnight Wed/early Thurs. Some nice CAPE thru the hail zone with steep mid level lapse rates  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 15, 2019 11:03:51 GMT -6
Is the hail growth zone the same as the DGZ?
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 15, 2019 11:42:13 GMT -6
In general- yes it lays in the -10 to as low as -30*C. WBZ is important too- 700mb or a bit lower is favorable for large hail
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 15, 2019 12:03:09 GMT -6
Bye Notre Dame.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 15, 2019 13:09:57 GMT -6
Unbelievable. I had the pleasure of touring NDC when I was in France...what an incredible loss. |
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Post by scmhack on Apr 15, 2019 13:19:17 GMT -6
Unbelievable. I had the pleasure of touring NDC when I was in France...what an incredible loss. I was in process of planning a Eurotrip for this summer and NDC/Paris was on my list of places. So much history lost. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 15, 2019 15:52:27 GMT -6
Unbelievable. I had the pleasure of touring NDC when I was in France...what an incredible loss. I was in process of planning a Eurotrip for this summer and NDC/Paris was on my list of places. So much history lost. It sounds like they may have saved much of the art and the surrounding super-structure. Obviously a terrible loss...but early signs are that it is not totalled. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 15, 2019 16:51:47 GMT -6
For those with Facebook video from the North Dakota Dept of Transportation trying to keep I-29 north of Grand Forks open from flood waters by using inflatable water barriers. Is this the type of thing they used down on I-55 by the Meramec in December 2017? www.facebook.com/nddot/videos/2409510545944922/ |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 15, 2019 21:30:30 GMT -6
Chris, Sent PM
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Post by fojginmo on Apr 15, 2019 22:29:13 GMT -6
I visited in June '13. So beautiful. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 16, 2019 7:50:34 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 16, 2019 9:42:56 GMT -6
nam nest spawns up a potent little mcs Thursday morning.
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Post by rb1108 on Apr 16, 2019 10:14:01 GMT -6
Driving to Chicago early Thursday AM. How's weather looking for the drive?
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 16, 2019 11:57:07 GMT -6
Driving to Chicago early Thursday AM. How's weather looking for the drive? Looks like it'd be a pretty stormy, wet ride. |
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Post by jeepers on Apr 16, 2019 12:27:44 GMT -6
Chris, are u ready for GAME OF THRONES?? Have you watched all 7 seasons?? Finished season 7 Saturday! I will watch the season premier Monday after work! Wow, that’s a short time for that rollercoaster! Great job! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2019 13:57:26 GMT -6
nam nest spawns up a potent little mcs Thursday morning. Just what we need...another wind storm! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 16, 2019 16:11:07 GMT -6
Warm one out today. Borderline hot
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 16, 2019 17:14:00 GMT -6
Just went outside for first time since this morning. Wow, it is hot!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 16, 2019 19:22:08 GMT -6
This weather is a bit ridiculous.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 16, 2019 20:24:48 GMT -6
Had the heater on briefly last night. Today I almost turned the AC on. Gotta love the extremes we get with our weather around here
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 16, 2019 21:24:21 GMT -6
86 at Lambert today after reporting snow on Sunday. Ac is on.
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 16, 2019 21:29:45 GMT -6
Think they need to move the slight risk further south and east.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 17, 2019 4:52:01 GMT -6
Think they need to move the slight risk further south and east. Tell u what, we have not been in a favorable area for much severe weather yet this Spring. Kind of annoying. Hope this doesn't keep happening. 😡 |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 17, 2019 4:59:12 GMT -6
Think they need to move the slight risk further south and east. Tell u what, we have not been in a favorable area for much severe weather yet this Spring. Kind of annoying. Hope this doesn't keep happening. 😡 Aaaannnndddd just as I say this, the weather gods here my frustration. NWS moved slight risk over STL area. Still timing could be everything. Storms not moving in until close to midnight here. |
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 17, 2019 5:50:37 GMT -6
Think they need to move the slight risk further south and east. Tell u what, we have not been in a favorable area for much severe weather yet this Spring. Kind of annoying. Hope this doesn't keep happening. 😡 Not just this Spring. Been that way for at least a couple years now really. It's a good thing of course. So by the way our last enhanced risk at the late morning update for the entire metro area was nearly 2 years ago...the northeast has had several since then oddly enough. Now it's not like we haven't had any significant severe weather, but at least a couple of those events occurred with only a marginal or no risk (e.g. the derecho last year). It's just that we aren't getting a lot of environments where one expects severe weather with a high enough certainty. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 17, 2019 7:12:48 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 17, 2019 7:14:09 GMT -6
Tell u what, we have not been in a favorable area for much severe weather yet this Spring. Kind of annoying. Hope this doesn't keep happening. 😡 Not just this Spring. Been that way for at least a couple years now really. It's a good thing of course. So by the way our last enhanced risk at the late morning update for the entire metro area was nearly 2 years ago...the northeast has had several since then oddly enough. Now it's not like we haven't had any significant severe weather, but at least a couple of those events occurred with only a marginal or no risk (e.g. the derecho last year). It's just that we aren't getting a lot of environments where one expects severe weather with a high enough certainty. So true!! I need to watch Twister, get myself in the mood! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 17, 2019 7:28:29 GMT -6
The mesoscale models have been steadily upping the ante for tonight...
The ML CAPE has been increasing in the narrow plume ahead of the cold front.
The steep mid-level lapse rates are expanding more to the east.
The SRH and Bulk Shear is also inching upwards and into a more favorable range for mutli-modal severe weather. Prime time still looks to be midnight through about 4am. I guess it will be a long/early night/morning for me in the office tomorrow.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 17, 2019 7:52:53 GMT -6
I sure hope the 12z HRRR is not correct! It shows a significant ramp up in the 850mb flow coming up I-44...leading to a region of potentially enhanced tornado/hail/wind potential near and just south of St. Louis.
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Post by mosue56 on Apr 17, 2019 8:09:26 GMT -6
Stay on top of things for us! Timing etc!
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