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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 14, 2019 20:45:49 GMT -6
You know Summer is almost over in St. Louis when the Fox2 Fall Forecast Airs.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 14, 2019 22:34:55 GMT -6
You know Summer is almost over in St. Louis when the Fox2 Fall Forecast Airs. And the Muny season ends |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 15, 2019 8:12:45 GMT -6
Models are in decent agreement that the current MCS in Nebraska will fade, but give way to a new one behind it that may affect us overnight tonight.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 15, 2019 9:41:30 GMT -6
Models are in decent agreement that the current MCS in Nebraska will fade, but give way to a new one behind it that may affect us overnight tonight. There is zero instability to support it this far east...aloft or surface based for today. Now later tonight...when the LLJ kicks in... different story. Although the best low level forcing may still remain well west of STL. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 15, 2019 11:03:41 GMT -6
Rainfall totals from the NAM over the next 72hrs are concerning...hopefully it's just the NAM being the NAM but excessive rainfall has been the rule overall around the area since spring so it can't be discounted.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 15, 2019 11:15:06 GMT -6
Rainfall totals from the NAM over the next 72hrs are concerning...hopefully it's just the NAM being the NAM but excessive rainfall has been the rule overall around the area since spring so it can't be discounted. I think it’s just the NAM being the NAM. But even half of what’s it’s showing would be worrisome |
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 15, 2019 11:17:35 GMT -6
Yep, that's definitely beefy totals from NAM. It's still fresh in my mind the July 22nd precipitation forecast debacle where global models WAY underestimated the amount.
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Aug 15, 2019 11:22:41 GMT -6
Rainfall totals from the NAM over the next 72hrs are concerning...hopefully it's just the NAM being the NAM but excessive rainfall has been the rule overall around the area since spring so it can't be discounted. Can you (or someone) post the map? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 15, 2019 11:41:36 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 15, 2019 11:57:11 GMT -6
Im thinking flash flood watch might be in our future. Even if the nam doesnt verify, the gfs has been underdone in recent events. Overall i am thinking widespread 2 to 4 inches across all of metro between tonight and saturday night with more rain early next week. While most will be in the high end of that 2 to 4, there will probably be some isolated areas closer to 6.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 15, 2019 13:21:38 GMT -6
Just can't seem to get away from the heavy rain for very long, can we?
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Post by toddatfarmington on Aug 15, 2019 13:29:04 GMT -6
I would take that map down here where nobody lives. My poor food plots need some liquid, we have missed the majority of the past rains and its getting dry and dusty.
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Post by jeepers on Aug 15, 2019 13:53:41 GMT -6
Oh yippee. We're moving our son to college Saturday am. Packing the car is going to be fun. I hope that it moves through faster than forecast. I don't care if it rains 10 inches if I don't have to pack and drive in it.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 15, 2019 15:21:28 GMT -6
Oh my god!! No way. That would be awful! |
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Post by jeepers on Aug 15, 2019 16:54:22 GMT -6
Okay, I take it back. Hopefully the nam is on crack.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 15, 2019 19:21:03 GMT -6
Some impressive supercells to our west. A bit unusual for this time of year
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Post by scmhack on Aug 15, 2019 19:47:32 GMT -6
Some impressive supercells to our west. A bit unusual for this time of year Part of me wants to experience supercells like that. The other part of me remembers my g35 getting totaled out in 2013 due to baseball hail. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 15, 2019 20:25:07 GMT -6
Some impressive supercells to our west. A bit unusual for this time of year Was just about to post something similar. Those cells near Topeka look pretty stout. |
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 15, 2019 20:43:59 GMT -6
 Overcome the weak low level lapse rate... which I think we should- and tapping into the ~8* mid level rates, we may have some hail issues around here. Tomorrow evening |
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 15, 2019 22:06:02 GMT -6
In addition to the severe potential it looks like a possible setup for some training thunderstorms tomorrow night. Latest NAM/GFS and earlier cycle of UKM/ECM/GEFS/EPS seem to place the focus area along or north of I-70. We often see these effective boundaries getting pressed further south with all the rain/convection so I'd tend to hedge further south with the axis of heaviest precip accumulation. Could be a legit flash flood threat with locally high rainfall totals and I wouldn't be surprised to see WPC eventually upgrade their outlook to moderate in MO at some point.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 16, 2019 1:44:27 GMT -6
Looks like the most we see this morning is a few light showers, there is a tad of lightning and thunder here, with quite light rain. The big storms look to remain well south for now. Later Friday evening/night might be different.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 16, 2019 6:04:11 GMT -6
Big swing and a miss with the models so far...let's see how much the lifting boundary lights up this evening.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 16, 2019 8:47:53 GMT -6
Jmg articulated my thoughts exactly when i posted yesterday. We have seen these boundaries set up further south and the precip totals higher overall. I think the heart of metro is in line for 2 to 4 inches of rain...given this mornings rainfall lower than i expected, we may not all be in the upper part of that range, but i still think most will be in or near that range with a few spots exceeding.
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 16, 2019 8:53:52 GMT -6
As of 12Z this morning 500mb heights over portions of Alaska are running as high as 598DM. Will Alaska crack the 600DM mark today?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 16, 2019 9:07:57 GMT -6
As of 12Z this morning 500mb heights over portions of Alaska are running as high as 598DM. Will Alaska crack the 600DM mark today? If these big ridges/bubbles of warmth keep building across the high latitudes into winter it could be a doozy depending on where they set up. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 16, 2019 9:10:31 GMT -6
Jmg articulated my thoughts exactly when i posted yesterday. We have seen these boundaries set up further south and the precip totals higher overall. I think the heart of metro is in line for 2 to 4 inches of rain...given this mornings rainfall lower than i expected, we may not all be in the upper part of that range, but i still think most will be in or near that range with a few spots exceeding. Thinking convection will blossom later this afternoon and evening across central MO into the region...destabilization underway across N/W MO. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 16, 2019 9:50:37 GMT -6
If I’m reading the models right next week we could see a couple days in the upper 70s for highs. Am I right?
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 16, 2019 10:39:02 GMT -6
I wish Jeffmw! Me and the 70s are pals!
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 16, 2019 11:40:43 GMT -6
If I’m reading the models right next week we could see a couple days in the upper 70s for highs. Am I right? The 12z GFS says 70s for highs the following week starting on 8/26. I just saw 90s for next week. I don't know what the Euro is saying. Too far out though. Overall, you are right the trend is for a cool down, but it looks like the last week or so of August right now. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 16, 2019 11:48:47 GMT -6
Something big is coming tonight... you know why? I am heading to Cincy to take my son back to Xavier. That is when all the big stuff happens.
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