Chris's Corner - Happy Veterans Day 2019

I know this isn’t what most people wanna hear but I wouldn’t mind some warm days this winter. I have a lot of brush clearing I’d like to get done while everything is dead. Of course that also means I don’t want a lot of rain lol

I'm with you on warm days. I mowed a lot of leaves in my backyard today. I cut some limbs down on my birch tree yesterday. I'd like to have a few shots at nice days to help "shape" that tree, plus some other trees in my back; and I typically try to do all that over Thanksgiving. Given latest model trends, Thanksgiving might be a soaker with a shot of cold in Kansas City which indicates colder air coming in toward months end. I'll keep my fingers crossed. I still have a full tree of leaves on my maple, so I will have a lot more raking to do, so I'm holding off on putting my lighted moose in the front yard and I know I'll be cleaning gutters again when I hang lights. I have to splice some wiring on that decoration anyway, which is going to be a pain, but I figure on doing that in the next few days. Kind of figuring on a book-end winter, with a long stretch of mild days in the middle, so hopefully I'm right.

I remember the pomp and circumstance from last year...

People talking about Strat warming and the impacts of the PV usually look beyond the immediate STL area. I think people like Dr. Cohen accurately and factually reported what was happening and the potential ramifications.

My WC hit -50.

There is a wealth of strong research on the topic and you will hear the topic brought up every winter now. Last year’s cold blast being brief in the STL does nothing to disprove the importance of this phenomenon

Certainly not arguing the importance of this phenomenon. It does impact our weather. All ssw have different symptoms when it comes to our sensible wx. It also is not the sole reason we get cold spells. Id like to better understand the stages of ssw and the impact that those stages have on the weather patterns. From what ive seen, i might prefer a weakening of the polar vortex any day over a lobe breaking off and dumping all the cold. A reloadable and sustainable pattern of cold weather storminess seems to give us more opportunities for snow than an intense high pressure - the backside of that high will generally open up the gulf and send us warmth. In a nutshell, ill take 28 and snow over 0 and clear, especially with the forecast of 45 and rain in the forecast period. Lets see how this ssw plays out. It could be different than the recent events, but i suspect that landmass has an effect with how the majority of these behave (hence europe and asia get the sustained cold and storminess in most cases)

The big 3 all have a strong system impacting the middle of the country just before thanksgiving

I'm still trying to understand the implications of SSW events myself. Here is what I've been able to piece together so far. SSW events are categorized as either displacements or splits. Displacements are when the stratospheric vortex gets pushed off to one side often getting partially deformed in the process as well. Splits are when the single stratospheric vortex splits off into two lows. Full splits tend to have a stronger influence on tropospheric patterns than displacements. Both tend to increase the probability of cold air intrusions east of the Rocky Mountains. Unfortunately this doesn't necessarily equate to more snow though. It can take weeks for the SSW tropospheric influence to work itself out. 12Z ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement with the evolution of the 10mb heights through 240 hours. The SSW doesn't really ramp up on the GFS until after hour 240 though.

Looks windy on Drinksgiving. The euro has a low pressure deepening as it traverses from souther ok to se iowa. Wondering abt the possibility of thunderstorms close to the vicinity in this setup....then of course colder air coming in. The change in temps as well as the winds would be the big story rt now on this system. With the progged nao going neg, i wld expect any warmup in the wake to either be tempered or shortlived as we potentially could slip into a more winterlike pattern around the first of december.

Euro ensembles showing the potential as well. They tend to be shaded further north than the GEFS members

The cpc has highlighted a threat for frozen precipitation for basically the north half of mo 11/26 to 11/28. This does include kansas city and chicago.

So, if I'm planning to drive home Wednesday morning, would it be better to come home Tuesday night? Thank for your help.

Had just enough here in VR to wet the concrete and that was all she wrote.

gfs has a looooooot a rain next week

I guess that isn't too atypical for this time of year. In fact, it's to be expected even in good winters. It would be neat to see snow fly three times this month already even if it doesn't add up to much, if any.

That Friday system needs to be watched. NAM and GFS are both really close to dropping some heavy wet snow on the metro.