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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 0:02:56 GMT -6
ukmet is a lolly
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 13, 2019 0:08:05 GMT -6
EURO is coming in and OMG metro gets pounded.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 0:10:16 GMT -6
I smell some double chocolate cake cooking with the euro
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 0:13:22 GMT -6
icy mix sun into mom morning after burst of snow
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2019 0:15:49 GMT -6
How far south is the freeze line?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 0:17:05 GMT -6
then mon afternoon it's rain here, lmao
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 0:18:24 GMT -6
then back to light snow before ending
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 0:18:35 GMT -6
How far south is the freeze line? I’ll a post the p-type breakdown like the gfs I don’t know if we’re allowed to post euro stuff with the new relaxed rules but if not just delete mods |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 0:21:41 GMT -6
Euro p-type breakdown That’s some significant ice for our southern friends  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 0:22:07 GMT -6
shows 2-5 for northern 70% or so of the area, unless you use the Kuchera maps..then it's a couple inches lower
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 0:24:27 GMT -6
QPF is .5 to 7 for much of the area
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 0:25:56 GMT -6
Kuchera and the 10:1 maps looks identical for the metro to me. Both are 3-5
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 0:31:51 GMT -6
Kuchera and the 10:1 maps looks identical for the metro to me. Both are 3-5 the southern area seems to be less..franklin county loses an inch or 2..but you're basically correct. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 13, 2019 0:59:21 GMT -6
Yeah, hard to believe those qpf/snow totals with that ribbon of mid-level dry air never fully saturating during the event. Certainly it's going to be hard to get ice crystals to grow at least...  That's well after the lift has moved out and weakened. If you look at the gfs at 66hr and 69hr. 69 it has moderate to heavy snow over the metro and it's fully saturated. We get about 3 hours of thumping snow before we start mixing as we lose lift and saturation in the dgz. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 13, 2019 1:09:08 GMT -6
Well I'd say the models took a huge curve towards what we want.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 2:59:00 GMT -6
6z NAM is different. Basically barely gets us any WAA stuff, maybe a light mix for a couple hours. But then has the def zone here on Monday, and still snowing at the end of the run. With a couple inches + down.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 3:47:59 GMT -6
new forecast kinda sucks. Added up to a tenth of an inch of FZ on Sunday night and a glaze on Monday. Less than an inch of snow sun night, up to an inch on Monday. Of course Hannibal's forecast is for 3 inches of snow. I guess we shall find out.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 13, 2019 4:44:20 GMT -6
new forecast kinda sucks. Added up to a tenth of an inch of FZ on Sunday night and a glaze on Monday. Less than an inch of snow sun night, up to an inch on Monday. Of course Hannibal's forecast is for 3 inches of snow. I guess we shall find out. Yes I was kind of surprised reading this mornings disco for my area |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 13, 2019 4:44:53 GMT -6
.LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Focus thru this period will be a system impacting the region on
Sun, mainly afternoon, through Mon afternoon. This system, in two
waves, will bring various precip types to the region. There
remains a higher level of uncertainty with this system. Be sure to
check for updates often as this system approaches.
With the surface ridge building into the area, a fairly cold
airmass will be in place for Sun. GEFS and EPS depict much of the
CWA remaining near or below freezing for Sun and Mon. That said,
there is a greater spread in temps for Mon, especially across the
southern third to half of the CWA. This becomes vital to
determining if and where/when freezing rain is possible.
Models are in fairly good agreement with zonal flow aloft Sun
morning with an upper trof over the southern Rockies. As the upper
trof approaches, a leading s/w should help cyclogenesis over the
southern Plains. Very strong WAA is expected ahead of this system
and shud be responsible for the snow changing to rain or freezing
rain across the southern half of the CWA Sun evening thru Mon
morning. Coupled with this is a possible dry slot across this same
area which would bring an end to most of the precip late Sun
night. However, strong low level frontogenesis shud provide enough
lift to support drizzle/freezing drizzle during this time. Further
north into the cold air, snow is expected, with a swath of
frontogenesis and def zone band roughly along and north of KCOU
to KPPQ.
In the end, a potential 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible along
and north of I-70. Ice accumulations of near one tenth of an inch
are possible from roughly KVIH to KSAR and south, however, across
far southern portions of the CWA, surface temps shud climb enough
to limit ice accumulation. Between these two areas, a mix of snow,
possibly sleet and freezing rain/drizzle are possible with lower
accumulation amounts of each.
Beyond this system, dry conditions are expected. Temps will
greatly depend upon what happens on Sun night and Mon. However,
GEFS/EPS trends suggest cold air remaining in place across the
northern and central portions of the CWA thru the end of the
period. Meanwhile, after a couple of colder days, a warmup shud
begin late in the period.
Tilly
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2019 5:39:14 GMT -6
6z gfs was pretty good for STL.
6z GEFS is definitely north though.
I prematurely gave the euro the KO. The 00z euro was certainly an impressive storm for the metro, but way north compared to its previous runs.
Overall trend is toward a more northern solution compared to 24 hours ago.
Interesting stuff. Definitely a strong watcher for the region, but way more volatility than you want at this range.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 5:59:04 GMT -6
Chris going with 1-3 of crap for the metro with 3-5 north. Blah
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 6:14:50 GMT -6
Lol 6z Euro and 4-7 thru the heart of the area
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