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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 13:26:43 GMT -6
On the other hand the GFS features are messier on the second phase and I continue to be less than thrilled about the omega bullseye largely below (or even straddling) the DGZ. Soundings continue to indicate some notable dewpoint depressions at the top of the DGZ too. Going to make ideal flakes harder to come by.  I noticed the Cobb method was well below the standard 10:1 ratio. I think it stems from this issue |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 13:26:58 GMT -6
I need an exact amount of everything that falls at the Super 8 in Union from 3pm Sunday to 3 am Tuesday. Thanks.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 14, 2019 13:27:31 GMT -6
12z GEFS looks good, whAt did the 12z UKMET showing? Has any one looked at the SREF plumes today? Don't have much to go on with the UKMET, so have to infer a lot from the QPF fields. Fairly unimpressive compared to the other global models though...at least in the immediate metro. Maybe 0.5" or less. More precip down south but very marginal surface temps so some of that may be plain rain. SREF mean snowfall is 3" with a pretty even spread between 0-10". |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 14, 2019 13:30:38 GMT -6
I need an exact amount of everything that falls at the Super 8 in Union from 3pm Sunday to 3 am Tuesday. Thanks. No problem. Now if you want to know exactly how much accumulates we'll need more specifics on the surface type. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2019 13:46:29 GMT -6
On the other hand the GFS features are messier on the second phase and I continue to be less than thrilled about the omega bullseye largely below (or even straddling) the DGZ. Soundings continue to indicate some notable dewpoint depressions at the top of the DGZ too. Going to make ideal flakes harder to come by. I think sleet will definitely be a concern for the first wave south of I-44. The second wave will be snow which is good, but this is an interesting analysis you bring up. What does the omega bullseye mean? Positive omega is upward vertical motion right, I feel silly bc I don't remember haha. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 14:00:15 GMT -6
18 z NAM has the snow coming in 10-11 am.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 14:00:55 GMT -6
18 z NAM has the snow coming in 10-11 am. Looks colder and further south to |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 14, 2019 14:08:20 GMT -6
Yep. 2-4” right through 64/70 corridor with wave 1.
Forgot the year, maybe 2005 where we had a big December 15th snowfall with 2 very distinct waves.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 14:10:10 GMT -6
pretty impressive 1st round on the NAM, much more so than previous runs.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 14, 2019 14:15:32 GMT -6
Yep. 2-4” right through 64/70 corridor with wave 1. Forgot the year, maybe 2005 where we had a big December 15th snowfall with 2 very distinct waves. December 15, 2007 I believe. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 14, 2019 14:27:18 GMT -6
On the other hand the GFS features are messier on the second phase and I continue to be less than thrilled about the omega bullseye largely below (or even straddling) the DGZ. Soundings continue to indicate some notable dewpoint depressions at the top of the DGZ too. Going to make ideal flakes harder to come by. I think sleet will definitely be a concern for the first wave south of I-44. The second wave will be snow which is good, but this is an interesting analysis you bring up. What does the omega bullseye mean? Positive omega is upward vertical motion right, I feel silly bc I don't remember haha. Omega is defined in a pressure coordinate system, so delta pressure per time (usually microbars/s). When air is rising omega is negative. By omega bullseye I'm just speaking off the cuff and referring to the max (ok technically min) value within all those concentric contours. We want the omega (red) showing up inside the layer bounded by the purple lines...the dentritic (snow) growth zone which is often referred to as the "cross-hair signature". |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 14, 2019 14:29:03 GMT -6
Yeah first phase is stout on the NAM. That's a pretty impressive wave that develops along the boundary too.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 14, 2019 14:32:21 GMT -6
Nams puttimg 6 plus inches in metro as well
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 14:38:56 GMT -6
Nam has a nice backside. Haha
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2019 14:46:38 GMT -6
I think sleet will definitely be a concern for the first wave south of I-44. The second wave will be snow which is good, but this is an interesting analysis you bring up. What does the omega bullseye mean? Positive omega is upward vertical motion right, I feel silly bc I don't remember haha. Omega is defined in a pressure coordinate system, so delta pressure per time (usually microbars/s). When air is rising omega is negative. By omega bullseye I'm just speaking off the cuff and referring to the max (ok technically min) value within all those concentric contours. We want the omega (red) showing up inside the layer bounded by the purple lines...the dentritic (snow) growth zone which is often referred to as the "cross-hair signature". Thanks for responding! Still trying to wrap my head around that. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 14, 2019 14:49:09 GMT -6
My guess-6.1" at STL
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 14:49:51 GMT -6
Last time I saw the NAM do a ramp up like this was the big January storm last winter...this past January.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 14, 2019 14:51:50 GMT -6
Could someone post the nam snowfall map if it is allowed? Thanks!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 14:54:14 GMT -6
hi res nam is purdy too
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Post by jeepers on Dec 14, 2019 14:57:34 GMT -6
Don’t tease, cough it up.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 14:57:45 GMT -6
Could someone post the nam snowfall map if it is allowed? Thanks! Kuchera method might be alittle over baked on totals but you get the idea
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Post by jeepers on Dec 14, 2019 14:58:57 GMT -6
A little? Holy jumpin up and down Martha. Thanks for posting!
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 14, 2019 15:05:45 GMT -6
Could someone post the nam snowfall map if it is allowed? Thanks! Kuchera method might be alittle over baked on totals but you get the idea
I think I heard the Friv-ometer blow up on that one! |
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on Dec 14, 2019 15:09:09 GMT -6
Last time I saw the NAM do a ramp up like this was the big January storm last winter...this past January. I remember watching the SrEF plumes just ramp up 24 hours out from that storm. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 14, 2019 15:12:07 GMT -6
Sure wish it was heading a little south but hope you guys enjoy this one. I think 4-8 across the metro is very attainable.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on Dec 14, 2019 15:16:27 GMT -6
Doesn’t appear there will be any warnings or advisories with the afternoon update. Pleasant Hill (KC) is adding a couple of counties to the watch and continuing existing advisories and watches.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 14, 2019 15:20:02 GMT -6
Sure wish it was heading a little south but hope you guys enjoy this one. I think 4-8 across the metro is very attainable. I think you might be in line for some nasty icing down that way. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 15:20:04 GMT -6
Doesn’t appear there will be any warnings or advisories with the afternoon update. Pleasant Hill (KC) is adding a couple of counties to the watch and continuing existing advisories and watches. They did update the watch to say 2-6" with a tenth of an inch of ice possible |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 14, 2019 15:20:26 GMT -6
Winter weather watch for entire cwa, some advisories out as well.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 15:22:11 GMT -6
looks like an advisory for the southern counties and the watch remains from jeffco and franco on north
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