|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 14, 2019 11:28:07 GMT -6
12z GEFS looks good, whAt did the 12z UKMET showing? Has any one looked at the SREF plumes today?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 11:31:01 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 11:59:40 GMT -6
Not many surprises on the EURO out to 36 hours, still has wave 1 and is perhaps a half county's length farther south, so like 10-20 miles, and qpf amounts are nearly identical.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 14, 2019 12:01:30 GMT -6
Euro looks great I believe we will have a warning event.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 12:01:43 GMT -6
Looks like wave 2 is also a bit farther south, but seems a little less frisky than 0Z, but still present at hour 48.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 14, 2019 12:03:09 GMT -6
One thing is for certain with any system and that is, they never completely go as planned. We will either cash in on wave one or wave two. Very rarely will any one area get both waves. I just hope its not like we don't get much from wave one. So we sit and wait for wave two which ends up tracking up in Iowa. 🤣🤣
|
|
|
|
Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 14, 2019 12:05:43 GMT -6
The NWS called for a Trace to 4" for us. Just a little range and uncertainty.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 12:05:54 GMT -6
EURO splits it into a 3 wave event with the first wave giving us 2-3" in the metro followed by wave 2 which gives about an inch of 'stuff' snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain mix, then here comes wave 3 Monday evening into night that goes Kaboom and gives us 3-5 more inches for a 6-9" storm total event.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 12:06:51 GMT -6
Euro is a pretty major storm for the area
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 14, 2019 12:07:02 GMT -6
Id say we have a watcher
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 12:08:06 GMT -6
Looks like the last flakes finish up around 3AM Tuesday according to the 12Z Euro.
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 14, 2019 12:08:46 GMT -6
How far south does the wave get on Monday evening?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 12:11:12 GMT -6
12z Euro  |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 12:12:56 GMT -6
How far south does the wave get on Monday evening? Shows about 6" @ St. Louis, and 2.5" @ your location in Marissa, 4-5" in Belleville. You'll likely get more sleet and freezing rain with up to .25" to .5" of sleet/ice with an inch of snow underneath it, and about 1-1.5" of snow on top of it. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 12:14:23 GMT -6
One thing to note. Like the chart I posted above shows, the long duration between waves will allow some settling and compaction between rounds so total measured amounts might not be as high as models are advertising. ALso if we get any ice on top of the snow that will suppress total measured amounts even more.
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 14, 2019 12:14:41 GMT -6
That would actually make the storm worse down here than it will be for those that get just 4-6 inches of snow
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 12:16:42 GMT -6
That would actually make the storm worse down here than it will be for those that get just 4-6 inches of snow Exactly, so high-end advisory or warning would be warranted areawide but under what criteria will very by location with more snow along I-70 and about 20 miles south of there and north of it till the edge of the viewing area and more ice for the southern 3rd of the area. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2019 12:18:13 GMT -6
I sense bread, milk, and eggs will be flying off store shelves at Schnucks and other grocery stores today and tonight into tomorrow AM. Probably gonna be deader than a graveyard when I actually go into work at 5PM Sunday however.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 12:18:41 GMT -6
Kuchera maps off the euro that run are beefy. Showing 7-9" for the metro
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 12:20:08 GMT -6
Euro looks great I believe we will have a warning event. Maybe not... not for snow anyway...because it is spread over much of two days and two waves. You could make a strong argument... if you believe in criteria...this will fall short of the snow criteria. However...the combination of snow and possible ice may tip the scales for them towards a warning. Hard to say. Some of the forecasters will split hairs on the criteria... others don't pay as close of attention and look more at potential impact. The timing of these waves are such that there is likely to be an impact on the AM rush...although perhaps not as bad as the evening rush Monday with phase 2. |
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 14, 2019 12:23:55 GMT -6
We are borderline storm mode. |
|
|
|
Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Dec 14, 2019 12:35:50 GMT -6
Anything to shorten the last week before winter break is okay in my book. These students are full of “spirit.” Bring on the winter weather!
|
|
|
|
Post by TK on Dec 14, 2019 12:35:52 GMT -6
Euro looks great I believe we will have a warning event. Maybe not... not for snow anyway...because it is spread over much of two days and two waves. You could make a strong argument... if you believe in criteria...this will fall short of the snow criteria. However...the combination of snow and possible ice may tip the scales for them towards a warning. Hard to say. Some of the forecasters will split hairs on the criteria... others don't pay as close of attention and look more at potential impact. The timing of these waves are such that there is likely to be an impact on the AM rush...although perhaps not as bad as the evening rush Monday with phase 2. So I am pretty worried as I have a 11am flight out of STL Monday....It seems phases 1-3 timing will be hard to nail down...Any thoughts as to what I should do? I could leave on Sunday or wait until Tue? |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 12:43:48 GMT -6
Ok.. the Euro helped me with solidify my thoughts and helped support my thinking. New maps almost wrapped up...coming soon.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Dec 14, 2019 12:47:31 GMT -6
This is going to brutal for high school. With most having Monday and Tuesday full days and then finals W-F.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Dec 14, 2019 12:48:10 GMT -6
Wouldn't completely discount the utility of GYB with this system...at least for the second phase. On the latest Euro I'm seeing a distinct closed & deepening 850mb low moving from about Joplin right through the sweet spot...Cape G. 700mb low is very nearly closed (certainly is in a storm relative frame) with a wave axis moving very close to the metro. 500mb vorticity max is way off but I've always thought that was the sketchiest part of the process anyway. Hour 54 850mb  Hour 60 850mb  |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 12:54:45 GMT -6
Well GYB was discountable early on when this appeared to be more of a WAA only event. But the appearance of a more organized second phase does change things a bit...with a more robust wave two. So I agree.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 13:10:34 GMT -6
Ok... here you go... My basic thoughts remain the same as yesterday... a two phase system. What has changed in this update... I have increased the forecast ranges to 4" to 7 up north...and 2-4" in the middle...and slipped them south a few miles. I also added a transition zone of 2" or less to cover the transition between snow and no snow. I continue to hesitate to bring the max band quite as far south as some of the new model runs indicate. I'm concerned with the rate of change from snow to sleet in the WAA...and past experience with WAA dictates a conservative approach with this band. Obviously, if it turns out to be more snow... then at least the northern half of the 2-4 band will be too low. Down south... the potential for a significant amount of sleet and freezing rain exists...from the far southeast metro... down to the Kaskaskia River. Fortunately... temperatures...while below freezing...are not super cold and accretion may not be as efficient...especially during daylight. Sunday night could really be nasty with widespread freezing drizzle and temps in the 20s to near 30...and a fresh coat of snow. Monday morning's rush may end up being better than the evening rush because of the amount of time from the end of phase #1 and the start of phase #2. When all is said and done... this is a high end advisory/warning event...and because of the potential for ice...and to keep messaging easier...my preference would be for a warning when the time comes..which may be this evening.     |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Dec 14, 2019 13:16:01 GMT -6
On the other hand the GFS features are messier on the second phase and I continue to be less than thrilled about the omega bullseye largely below (or even straddling) the DGZ. Soundings continue to indicate some notable dewpoint depressions at the top of the DGZ too. Going to make ideal flakes harder to come by.  |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2019 13:24:59 GMT -6
On the other hand the GFS features are messier on the second phase and I continue to be less than thrilled about the omega bullseye largely below (or even straddling) the DGZ. Soundings continue to indicate some notable dewpoint depressions at the top of the DGZ too. Going to make ideal flakes harder to come by. Another reason I only went 2-4 for metro STL. |
|
