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Post by jmg378s on Dec 14, 2019 22:40:10 GMT -6
Somebody asked earlier and I can't remember if it was answered, but I don't think wind is going to be a big factor with this storm.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 14, 2019 22:46:44 GMT -6
I'm holding steady with 1 to 2. Thinking the ice will be the main cause of the big impact. Check things in the morning.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 14, 2019 23:03:26 GMT -6
Ok it looks like 0Z HRRRv4 has the axis of heaviest snow right through the metro. The axis of heaviest QPF is pretty close as well.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2019 23:18:57 GMT -6
Ok it looks like 0Z HRRRv4 has the axis of heaviest snow right through the metro. The axis of heaviest QPF is pretty close as well. Which site do you use for the HRRRv4? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 23:21:39 GMT -6
Not that it means much at this range, but the GEFS has the max band right down 70
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 23:22:34 GMT -6
Ok it looks like 0Z HRRRv4 has the axis of heaviest snow right through the metro. The axis of heaviest QPF is pretty close as well. Which site do you use for the HRRRv4? Weathermodels.com has it, it's in the model lab section..the site is 10 bucks a month |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 23:26:34 GMT -6
ukmet has max right along 70, just to my north, about .5 to .7
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Post by MakeitRain on Dec 14, 2019 23:34:40 GMT -6
St. Louis loses the temperature battle 7/10 times. That doesn’t mean it’s not a winter storm it just means this looks like an ice situation based on what I’m seeing.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 14, 2019 23:37:17 GMT -6
Ok it looks like 0Z HRRRv4 has the axis of heaviest snow right through the metro. The axis of heaviest QPF is pretty close as well. Which site do you use for the HRRRv4? The ESRL site has it too. That's actually what I used this time as weathermodels.com didn't have the 0Z cycle in yet. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 23:40:13 GMT -6
FYI the old chat is open if anyone wants to join.  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 14, 2019 23:42:48 GMT -6
Hrrr continues to just dominate STL.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 14, 2019 23:53:52 GMT -6
Hrrr continues to just dominate STL. How far south does the Hrrr take the snow? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2019 23:59:37 GMT -6
Euro looking good
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 0:02:11 GMT -6
Wave one on the euro looks bueno for the metro
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2019 0:03:02 GMT -6
Not much of a wave 2 at all on the euro unfortunately.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 0:05:35 GMT -6
Not much of a wave 2 at all on the euro unfortunately. Ya the models seem to be having a hard time figuring out what to do with the ejecting vort |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 0:10:04 GMT -6
EUro may be shearing it out too quickly as models do. It may not be as robust as earlier runs, but not as cruddy as current euro run..somewhere in the middle ..I think wave 2 is good for a couple inches
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 0:16:13 GMT -6
What time should we expect the 1st wave to hit? Wife is working 5am-1pm shift tomorrow. Thoughts on potential conditions (worst case) around noon tomorrow?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 0:21:00 GMT -6
Should start in St louis right around noon...earlier west..later east. With temps below freezing for an extended period before the snow, roads will probably start getting slick pretty quickly. But not an expert here
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 0:24:56 GMT -6
Hrrr has flakes flying in the metro around 10am
It will be light at first but pick up quickly in the afternoon
No doubt roads will get slick quick like 99 said
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 0:30:32 GMT -6
920.. what do you think about the shearing vort theory on the models i spun, lol
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Post by dmbstl on Dec 15, 2019 0:35:41 GMT -6
Where can we get current road temp information? I can’t find it on the app MoDOT uses.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 0:38:30 GMT -6
920.. what do you think about the shearing vort theory on the models i spun, lol I'm way too much of an amateur to have an idea lol
The higher resolution models do seem to handle those things better than the globals
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Post by nascarfan999 on Dec 15, 2019 0:39:28 GMT -6
Where can we get current road temp information? I can’t find it on the app MoDOT uses. I don't believe it is publicly available for Missouri. |
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Post by thechaser on Dec 15, 2019 0:49:25 GMT -6
Not sure if you guys like the RPM model, but FWIW, it has a swath of 6-8" of snow (pushing 10" in spots) through the heart of the metro area
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 0:50:38 GMT -6
Not sure if you guys like the RPM model, but FWIW, it has a swath of 6-8" of snow (pushing 10" in spots) through the heart of the metro area Well, I like it for now |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 1:17:15 GMT -6
Euro ensembles now bullseyeing the metro. This is the chance of 3" or more  |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 1:21:11 GMT -6
Hrrr has flakes flying in the metro around 10am It will be light at first but pick up quickly in the afternoon No doubt roads will get slick quick like 99 said Appreciate the updates guys! You both are experts compared to me! Lol |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 2:01:10 GMT -6
WAA on 6z NAM is quite something. 5-8 inches over the heart of the metro. Just SUnday
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Dec 15, 2019 2:06:28 GMT -6
WAA on 6z NAM is quite something. 5-8 inches over the heart of the metro. Just SUnday looking real good! Hope this keeps up its trend!!! ❄️❄️❄️☃️☃️⛄️⛄️⛄️ |
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