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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 15, 2019 2:06:34 GMT -6
Radar already showing activity from near Columbia to St. Joseph. The stuff near Columbia looks pretty light so probably isn't reaching the ground. But near St. Joe the echos are more robust.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 15, 2019 2:10:08 GMT -6
It really seems like models have ramped up wave one (SUNDAY) and weakened wave 2 (MONDAY).
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 15, 2019 2:12:22 GMT -6
WAA on 6z NAM is quite something. 5-8 inches over the heart of the metro. Just SUnday Shows nice lapse rate and Omega thru the DGZ...  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 2:15:06 GMT -6
Hey coz what’s your thoughts on thunder under that “death band” tomorrow?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 2:23:21 GMT -6
NAM has a nice wave 2..a couple more inches
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 2:24:12 GMT -6
Hope we can get that omega thru the DGZ that would certainly help, hopefully others show that as well
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 15, 2019 2:27:15 GMT -6
Just looking at the sounding... lapse rates aren't strong enough for any thunder.
To me... after looking at tonight's runs- I think my 6.1" at STL guess will likely be attained.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 3:16:10 GMT -6
winter storm warning folks
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 15, 2019 3:16:26 GMT -6
Ok 06z NAM is good. But it needs to stop. Otherwise us folks north of HWY 70 won't be in the heavier band. Lol. NAH, all is is good. I want my southern weather junkies to cash in too.
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Dec 15, 2019 3:19:49 GMT -6
Winter Storm Warning!
6 inches in the metro, 7-9 out my way in Columbia.
(Per the zone forecast)
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 3:22:33 GMT -6
advisory for Washington and Crawford on south
7-9 expected in Columbia..around 6 in STL..5 or 6 maybe here
Total thru Mon evening. Many get 3-6 today
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 15, 2019 3:22:35 GMT -6
winter storm warning folks For who? I'm only seeing it for western Mo?? |
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on Dec 15, 2019 3:28:12 GMT -6
winter storm warning folks For who? I'm only seeing it for western Mo?? It’s in the zone forecast product. Looks like they converted most of the watch to a warning. Exception around Quincy. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 3:29:57 GMT -6
winter storm warning folks For who? I'm only seeing it for western Mo?? Don't worry you're in it..6+ inches |
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Dec 15, 2019 3:36:14 GMT -6
NWS shows Winter Storm Watch on the map. Where are you seeing the Warning for St. Louis?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 3:39:39 GMT -6
As was mentioned..it's in the zone forecasts
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Dec 15, 2019 3:58:37 GMT -6
As was mentioned..it's in the zone forecasts Ok it's been updated...Thanks. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 4:58:59 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 4:59:34 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2019 5:20:10 GMT -6
Where's BRTWXMAN at? Anyone remember if the storm Nov 11/12ish this year had any last minute N/S adjustments which weren't modeled? Hunting geese in S. IL...been keeping an eye on things but not really digging into models too much. Based on what I've seen I'm thinking 2-4" for the metro...still a bit concerned about mixing with the first round given the stout LLJ...but if the heavy band sets up precip rates should ward off the mixing and bump totals to the 3-6" range. Round 2 is looking like another 1-2" with mostly light/moderate rates so this could end up being a pretty nice storm for the metro and 44/70 corridor. And the transition to drizzle inbetween rounds will make for some dangerous driving conditions. Areas from Chester to Salem and points S/SE are probably going to see a nasty mix of sleet and ZR/FRDZ with an inch or two of snow. |
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Post by birddog on Dec 15, 2019 6:19:36 GMT -6
Woke at 5:30 looked out the window and thought the snow had already started! After rising I see that the trees were white washed by the moon! A chilly 21°.
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Post by tedrick65 on Dec 15, 2019 7:33:13 GMT -6
From the NNE wind and radar...is the DAM making an appearance this morning?
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 15, 2019 7:36:47 GMT -6
From the NNE wind and radar...is the DAM making an appearance this morning? Certainly looks that way |
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Post by dschreib on Dec 15, 2019 7:44:32 GMT -6
DAM can hold on another 6 hours, then cut loose.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 7:45:27 GMT -6
If anythin dam will help
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 15, 2019 7:47:18 GMT -6
Nws snowfall map has 6 inches of snow and literally within 30 miles goes down to an inch...... we are in the 1-2 ......
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 15, 2019 7:56:04 GMT -6
6Z HRRRv4 is very aggressive with snowfall totals. Much more so than the 0Z cycle from last night and the snowfall is far more widespread. The axis of heaviest QPF remains right through the metro area. FWIW...the Kuchera product from COD on this run as 12" at the airport with > 1.0" QPF.    |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Dec 15, 2019 7:59:40 GMT -6
6Z HRRRv4 is very aggressive with snowfall totals. Much more so than the 0Z cycle from last night and the snowfall is far more widespread. The axis of heaviest QPF remains right through the metro area. Any concern with the HRRR that it shows no freezing rain north of roughly I-64 in the metro? Assuming we do get some of the precip as freezing rain instead of snow that would cut into the 6-8" snow total. |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 15, 2019 8:09:36 GMT -6
6Z HRRRv4 is very aggressive with snowfall totals. Much more so than the 0Z cycle from last night and the snowfall is far more widespread. The axis of heaviest QPF remains right through the metro area. Any concern with the HRRR that it shows no freezing rain north of roughly I-64 in the metro? Assuming we do get some of the precip as freezing rain instead of snow that would cut into the 6-8" snow total. Yeah, that's definitely possible. It's probably a little too aggressive with QPF anyway. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 8:12:54 GMT -6
I am not at all confident with metro STL.
I slipped my 4 to 7 band south another 20 miles or so into St Louis County.. but that was only to capture the potential dor 4 to 5 across the metro. I really think the heaviest will set up just north of I-70...wthe drop off south of there will depend on transition times to sleet...lots of variables.
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