Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 13, 2019 10:12:09 GMT -6
Wow...euro at noon is important for determining adjustments but i think i wld stay with 1 to 2 and see what tomorrow holds. Alot of things are variable...with the cold front tomorrow and cooling advection in place, im thinking those models are too bullish on the waa.
Am I the only one that doesn’t think the GFS was a bad run? Seems to fit the going forecast to me.
Wave 1 looks pretty good that run. Big hit of WAA snow that transitions to freezing rain/drizzle as we lose ice crystal growth. That would make quite the mess
It definitely would be a mess but we would atleast have a pretty white scenery. Atleast we still see a descent accumulation of stuff which still support Chris’ going forecast if 1-3” and 3-5” north. Certainly would be nice to have a better phase 2 but I’d settle for that run right now and call it a day.
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 13, 2019 11:56:09 GMT -6
Im not looking at plumes... because Im out and about... but GFS ensemble snowfall has actually gone up a little over the metro in the last 12 hours over the 00z and 06z runs from what I can see. Not much from 006z.. but much more noticeable vs. the 00z run.
It then brings the second wave through with the shortwave much later.. but into Monday evening...with another 1" or so.
From a conceptual basis... the EURO fits my thinking better...and not just because the numbers look good here. This is not a classic GYB situation. You don't have a deepening shortwave... you have a shearing shortwave...so you really can't use GYB here. You have to look more at the components that are generating the actual lift. In this event there are two primary driving mechanisms that sandwich a third weaker one. You have WAA with the Sunday afternoon/night event...you have large scale lift and frontal forcing at mid-levels in advance of the shortwave...and sandwiched in between... weak/nebulous lift in weak WAA between the weakening/shearing LLJ and the shortwave...in the presence of a cold/moist low level topped by a dry slot at the top of the DGZ.
Based on what I've seen so far... I'm very happy with the forecast I have out there right now.
How is it that we are 48 hours away and the models still can’t decide if I am getting rain, freezing rain, sleet, or a little snow? This is a face off for the ages between gfs and euro.
This far out with the energy still off the coast... these kinds of differences aren't all that unusual.
It is interesting that there is once again a fairly large spread in the ensemble means with the 12z runs after having been pretty tightly clustered in the mean the past couple of runs. The Euro ensemble has shifted south..at least based on what I'm seeing through the first phase.
Welcome to the shout box. Just trying this feature out.
gonefishin - WashMO: We have Grandparents Day/Open House at school on Sunday. Getting nervous about the idea of our grandparents walking between church and school with icy conditions. Glad it’s not my call. Hoping the ice holds off.
Jan 26, 2023 9:16:44 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: The RAP has seen the light! 21Z run is back on course for a major winter storm for almost the entire area!
Jan 23, 2023 16:20:25 GMT -6
ajd446: Is it me or does it appear the 21z sref had a decent shift NW.
Jan 22, 2023 18:29:06 GMT -6
bfsmith81: Christmas Edition thread seems to be broken? Last page of the thread won't load now, with an HTTP 410 error.
Jan 15, 2023 12:29:29 GMT -6
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6