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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 9:42:18 GMT -6
I think icon would be ice. The cold air always holds tough
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2019 9:42:49 GMT -6
GFS looks like it is going to come in warmer to me. It is a matter of a degree or two with this one as far as potential impacts go.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2019 9:50:41 GMT -6
You gotta live st louis when its raining and 33. Lol But I hear it's always cooler by the lake  Only in the summer. It’s always warmer in the winter unfortunately |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 9:51:58 GMT -6
GFs and NAM seem to be struggling with the vort max ejecting and just how much it gets sheared
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2019 9:53:06 GMT -6
That’s a pretty bad run of the gfs. Some icing along 70, then rain, followed by a brief period of light snow.
Ouch
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 9:53:25 GMT -6
Gfs could be 1 to 2 inches of sleet and up to 1/4 inch ice for metro, with 3 inch from mo river north. Definately a tough one. But impactful
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 9:53:55 GMT -6
Gfs would be a travel disaster
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2019 9:57:54 GMT -6
Gfs could be 1 to 2 inches of sleet and up to 1/4 inch ice for metro, with 3 inch from mo river north. Definately a tough one. But impactful Those amounts are way too high. Ice doesn’t accrete 1:1 with QPF, especially with borderline temps. Sleet is maybe 4:1. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 10:01:18 GMT -6
Metro is right in the snow and ice overlap zone that run  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 13, 2019 10:06:57 GMT -6
But I hear it's always cooler by the lake Only in the summer. It’s always warmer in the winter unfortunately Well that depends though....just like wooly worms and persimmons seeds....the larger the wheel wells are that year, the colder it is by the lake. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 13, 2019 10:10:15 GMT -6
Am I the only one that doesn’t think the GFS was a bad run? Seems to fit the going forecast to me.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 13, 2019 10:12:09 GMT -6
Wow...euro at noon is important for determining adjustments but i think i wld stay with 1 to 2 and see what tomorrow holds. Alot of things are variable...with the cold front tomorrow and cooling advection in place, im thinking those models are too bullish on the waa.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 10:14:34 GMT -6
Am I the only one that doesn’t think the GFS was a bad run? Seems to fit the going forecast to me. Wave 1 looks pretty good that run. Big hit of WAA snow that transitions to freezing rain/drizzle as we lose ice crystal growth. That would make quite the mess |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 13, 2019 10:21:38 GMT -6
Am I the only one that doesn’t think the GFS was a bad run? Seems to fit the going forecast to me. Wave 1 looks pretty good that run. Big hit of WAA snow that transitions to freezing rain/drizzle as we lose ice crystal growth. That would make quite the mess It definitely would be a mess but we would atleast have a pretty white scenery. Atleast we still see a descent accumulation of stuff which still support Chris’ going forecast if 1-3” and 3-5” north. Certainly would be nice to have a better phase 2 but I’d settle for that run right now and call it a day. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 13, 2019 10:44:00 GMT -6
You gotta live st louis when its raining and 33. Lol But I hear it's always cooler by the lake Well... that made me laugh out loud. Students even looked at me wondering what was so funny.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 10:47:02 GMT -6
Verbatim the 12z GEM is an ice storm for the metro
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 10:51:18 GMT -6
Thats a warning criteral ice almost
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 13, 2019 10:52:57 GMT -6
Verbatim the 12z GEM is an ice storm for the metro 'Major' Ice Storm east of River. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 13, 2019 10:53:28 GMT -6
This one will have a few surprises up it's sleeve.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 13, 2019 11:13:46 GMT -6
I have seen this play out way to many times down this way....... just hope it’s more of a sleet show than freezing rain show
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2019 11:14:52 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks pretty good.
Euro will likely follow
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 13, 2019 11:56:09 GMT -6
Im not looking at plumes... because Im out and about... but GFS ensemble snowfall has actually gone up a little over the metro in the last 12 hours over the 00z and 06z runs from what I can see. Not much from 006z.. but much more noticeable vs. the 00z run.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 13, 2019 12:07:52 GMT -6
And the battle wages on... the Euro holds fast...even shifts a touch south with WAA precip.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 12:08:56 GMT -6
Euro looks really good with the WAA precep
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 13, 2019 12:22:12 GMT -6
Euro looks really good with the WAA precep It then brings the second wave through with the shortwave much later.. but into Monday evening...with another 1" or so. From a conceptual basis... the EURO fits my thinking better...and not just because the numbers look good here. This is not a classic GYB situation. You don't have a deepening shortwave... you have a shearing shortwave...so you really can't use GYB here. You have to look more at the components that are generating the actual lift. In this event there are two primary driving mechanisms that sandwich a third weaker one. You have WAA with the Sunday afternoon/night event...you have large scale lift and frontal forcing at mid-levels in advance of the shortwave...and sandwiched in between... weak/nebulous lift in weak WAA between the weakening/shearing LLJ and the shortwave...in the presence of a cold/moist low level topped by a dry slot at the top of the DGZ. Based on what I've seen so far... I'm very happy with the forecast I have out there right now. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 12:22:44 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2019 12:59:15 GMT -6
How is it that we are 48 hours away and the models still can’t decide if I am getting rain, freezing rain, sleet, or a little snow? This is a face off for the ages between gfs and euro.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2019 13:14:19 GMT -6
Small but noticeable shift south in the euro ensembles snow probabilities
They are still shaded further north than the operational run but not by much
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 13, 2019 13:17:06 GMT -6
The euro looks amazing
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 13, 2019 13:17:21 GMT -6
How is it that we are 48 hours away and the models still can’t decide if I am getting rain, freezing rain, sleet, or a little snow? This is a face off for the ages between gfs and euro. This far out with the energy still off the coast... these kinds of differences aren't all that unusual. It is interesting that there is once again a fairly large spread in the ensemble means with the 12z runs after having been pretty tightly clustered in the mean the past couple of runs. The Euro ensemble has shifted south..at least based on what I'm seeing through the first phase. |
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