|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 27, 2019 7:48:12 GMT -6
Low clouds will be tough to clear out today. Trajectories in the cloud layer show that they are about done advecting south and satellite images are showing a return flow in that cloud layer already getting established over western Missouri and Kansas.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 27, 2019 8:14:15 GMT -6
Low clouds will be tough to clear out today. Trajectories in the cloud layer show that they are about done advecting south and satellite images are showing a return flow in that cloud layer already getting established over western Missouri and Kansas. What kind of rainfall totals are we looking at from the Saturday system? Right now December looks to be well below average. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 27, 2019 8:16:03 GMT -6
Lots of moisture... but decent progression... so Im thinking maybe 1"...
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 27, 2019 10:17:46 GMT -6
I think we may see some very fast tornados with the shear alone tomorrow
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 27, 2019 11:26:06 GMT -6
Doesn’t look like any major snow chances until the second week of January.
There is a storm in about a week that the models are struggling with, but it would take perfect timing for the cold air to be there.
It was really warm for the last 5 days back home in St. Charles and then yesterday we got back up to Chicago and walked the dog in shorts.
Haven’t had anything up here since early November
|
|
|
|
Post by ElburnDave on Dec 27, 2019 12:20:51 GMT -6
Doesn’t look like any major snow chances until the second week of January. There is a storm in about a week that the models are struggling with, but it would take perfect timing for the cold air to be there. It was really warm for the last 5 days back home in St. Charles and then yesterday we got back up to Chicago and walked the dog in shorts. Haven’t had anything up here since early November Had a fire in the pit after services on Christmas Eve and grilled out in shorts and a t-shirt on Christmas Day. It was pretty great! Now bring back winter... |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 27, 2019 13:18:56 GMT -6
12z euro does look primed for an overrunning event at day 10.
That’s about it for the area this model cycle
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 27, 2019 14:42:49 GMT -6
Is this northern plains & Minnesota snowstorm really going to be wound up as some of the stuff I'm reading? I'm seeing blizzard conditions and possibly 30+ inches of snow. That would be historic and a major problem for holiday travelers.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 27, 2019 15:38:06 GMT -6
12z GFS has a 12mb pressure drop over 30hrs. Looking at that it doesn't seem very impressive. It looks to sit and dump snow over eastern North/South Dakota. That could be where the 30" totals are appearing from. I have no TV, been that way for several years now, so I don't get any of the local or national hype. Just the biased stuff, depending on which article/source I happen to 'bite' on. I am sort of 'out of the loop' anymore. And loving it.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2019 15:55:12 GMT -6
Is this northern plains & Minnesota snowstorm really going to be wound up as some of the stuff I'm reading? I'm seeing blizzard conditions and possibly 30+ inches of snow. That would be historic and a major problem for holiday travelers. Highest forecast I've seen from the NWS is 16"...piece of cake! |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 27, 2019 16:22:08 GMT -6
Is this northern plains & Minnesota snowstorm really going to be wound up as some of the stuff I'm reading? I'm seeing blizzard conditions and possibly 30+ inches of snow. That would be historic and a major problem for holiday travelers. Highest forecast I've seen from the NWS is 16"... piece of cake!Double chocolate no doubt...  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2019 18:26:20 GMT -6
Alaska had their coldest temp since 2012 this morning of -65. We all know how the the winter 2011 2012 was here. Hehe.
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 27, 2019 18:52:15 GMT -6
Alaska had their coldest temp since 2012 this morning of -65. We all know how the the winter 2011 2012 was here. Hehe. Can we just pretend that winter never happened. |
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 27, 2019 18:56:27 GMT -6
Doesn’t look like any major snow chances until the second week of January. There is a storm in about a week that the models are struggling with, but it would take perfect timing for the cold air to be there. It was really warm for the last 5 days back home in St. Charles and then yesterday we got back up to Chicago and walked the dog in shorts. Haven’t had anything up here since early November True. But in my opinion the GFS has been outstanding in that timeframe So something to ponder while things are slow. It nailed the winter storm we had showing winter precipitation in that range and it also had our rainstorm for tomorrow in that range. I think it’s verification is giving the EURO a run for its money this year. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 27, 2019 19:18:24 GMT -6
Doesn’t look like any major snow chances until the second week of January. There is a storm in about a week that the models are struggling with, but it would take perfect timing for the cold air to be there. It was really warm for the last 5 days back home in St. Charles and then yesterday we got back up to Chicago and walked the dog in shorts. Haven’t had anything up here since early November True. But in my opinion the GFS has been outstanding in that timeframe So something to ponder while things are slow. It nailed the winter storm we had showing winter precipitation in that range and it also had our rainstorm for tomorrow in that range. I think it’s verification is giving the EURO a run for its money this year. The way they do verification scores the gfs is actually worse this year than last, while the euro continues to improve. Sure, on a micro outcome level sometimes the gfs wins, but it is clearly an inferior model /photo/1 Ryan Maue claims the 2009 euro performed better than the 2019 gfs, which if true, is incredibly embarrassing for us. |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 27, 2019 20:07:12 GMT -6
What time are the storms moving in tomorrow Chris?
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Dec 28, 2019 10:58:11 GMT -6
HRRR/RAP are a bit more robust with surface-based instability (though still quite low) than the NAM/GFS as the front approaches the area sometime around 12-3am. Something we'll want to monitor in realtime as a line of showers and storms moves in with the front because there is a lot of low level shear in play. For now the SPC marginal outlook is confined to the southwestern half of the area, excluding the metro, due to timing (lack of surface based instability) and weakening lift.
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Dec 28, 2019 15:00:28 GMT -6
This is has been one lazy day. Misting all day here. I built a fire and took a nap. I guess that's good If a storm keeps me awake tonight.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2019 16:13:23 GMT -6
Here comes a very soggy night.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2019 16:22:04 GMT -6
I am definately concerned about a qlcs tornAdo threat around 210 to 245 a.m.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2019 16:28:31 GMT -6
That’s pretty specific.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2019 16:48:59 GMT -6
Well models seem to be honing in on that time frame. Also temp is 60.0 in both davis and accunot. Just got back from a 5 mile walk at lake side 370. Beautiful day only had a 5 min rain shower around 1 p.m. otherwise dry just cloudy
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2019 16:57:34 GMT -6
and it's pouring
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2019 17:01:08 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 28, 2019 17:11:44 GMT -6
At least Barney is showing up in the extended on the 18z gfs.
The purple dinosaur is nice to have bumping in to the northern US
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2019 17:46:01 GMT -6
Wall 'O Water
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 28, 2019 19:03:54 GMT -6
Tornado warning for northern Polk County MO, north of Springfield, MO until 730. T-storm capable of producing a tornado showing on radar.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 28, 2019 20:04:41 GMT -6
Moderate to occasionally heavy rain the last 15 minutes or so.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2019 20:17:20 GMT -6
Really not much to speak of very unimpressive rainfall rates. Just no more than light rain all evening
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2019 20:21:02 GMT -6
I put my rain guage our and recieves .07 so far since 4 p.m.
|
|
