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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 28, 2019 21:30:27 GMT -6
Rains should pick up soon and overnight. Plenty of embedded heavier bands, possibly thunder storms to our west. I think by the time the weekend is over, most of us will see a good inch. Keep an eye out for wet sloppy flakeage tomorrow night as GFS does continue to hint for addl energy to ride up over the OH valley. Nothing to post for extended as far as wintry weather.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 28, 2019 21:56:28 GMT -6
WSC - soundings look real good overnight Monday- steep low level lapse rate into the DGZ- then isothermal up thru- excellent flakeage. You may see a few inches
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 28, 2019 22:04:57 GMT -6
WSC - soundings look real good overnight Monday- steep low level lapse rate into the DGZ- then isothermal up thru- excellent flakeage. You may see a few inches Appreciate the insight Coz. Was pretty bummed the secondary low is going to be all rain, but have been keeping an eye on what you identified. Looks like a quick hit, but after a pretty much snowless 6 weeks I’ll take anything. Hoping it continues to trend well. Thanks again for the analysis |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 28, 2019 23:09:22 GMT -6
Canadian says 1/6 to 1/7 will be our next storm...  |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2019 23:20:40 GMT -6
All the main global models have really switched in the last couple days now show several shots at cold air and potential winter storms. Only time will tell, but at least it’s a little more interesting
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 28, 2019 23:47:22 GMT -6
Nice downpour here now. At least the gunk off the roads are getting washed away
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Post by bear1 on Dec 29, 2019 0:11:21 GMT -6
Just a little over 1" here now.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 29, 2019 0:19:38 GMT -6
Strong winds rocking this place tonight! Rain pouring down too.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 29, 2019 1:05:09 GMT -6
Euro bringing the beef January 7th
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Post by amstilost on Dec 29, 2019 2:18:17 GMT -6
Power went out around 12:45, I got the small generator going to power the sump pump intermittently to drain. the pump to cycle before shutting the generator off and I noticed a light on in the basement. Ameren workers, you guys and gals are awesome and thank you so much. Power was off for a little over an hour. I am glad I didn't have to break out the larger generator, but fortunate I have one. I really need to look into a bypass switch to be able to plug the 10 HP unit in to power the well, sump, and heater if needed. All electric takes some getting used to. Again, Ameren, thank you.
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Post by birddog on Dec 29, 2019 5:48:02 GMT -6
1.2" overnight
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 29, 2019 7:31:59 GMT -6
1.55 must of really came down
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Post by landscaper on Dec 29, 2019 8:09:18 GMT -6
All three globals have a storm in the 6-7th time frame. Euro and GEM look similar both having stronger storms with the GFS having a weaker open wave . The good thing is all models and ensembles are showing some cold air getting back in the mix.
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Post by REB on Dec 29, 2019 8:32:46 GMT -6
1.06” in my backyard.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 392 
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Post by twocat on Dec 29, 2019 10:03:57 GMT -6
1.25" according to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 29, 2019 10:48:25 GMT -6
Ok so 1.55 is probably too high. Sorry. I guess my rain guage is in a bad spot too. Its in the middle of the darn yard not under anything
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 29, 2019 11:07:51 GMT -6
Have to wonder if we'll see another band of storms this afternoon/evening...satellite shows at least broken clearing across MO moving into the region and models are forecasting non-zero SBCAPE ahead of the front. Going to be tough to sustain updrafts given the ~75kts of bulk shear but if any can remain upright we could see a strong storm or two, IMO. Very marginal/conditional setup though, obviously...similar to last night but with timing more favorable.
Long range models are starting to show good support for a decent cold air intrusion around the 5th and possibly a storm in the 7th/8th timeframe...the GFS is very amplified and shows a blue norther/arctic intrusion which suppresses any storm threat while the EURO is more subdued and brings down a mP airmass ahead of the ejecting energy from the SW which is a favorable setup for winter precip around here and has support from the GEM currently. It definitely looks like a return to winter is in the cards as we head into the new year...
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 29, 2019 12:14:46 GMT -6
1.30” in Villa Ridge, MO
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 29, 2019 13:24:08 GMT -6
.92 in Marissa last night
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 29, 2019 14:18:11 GMT -6
Right at 1.25 inches overnight in the good ole analog rain gauge. Had to go back to the old school method because the Davis needs repair/overhaul.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 29, 2019 14:48:36 GMT -6
Models are building some big time cold across Canada and the US with an active southern jet as we head into the new year. I think winter makes a strong comeback soon
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 29, 2019 15:08:33 GMT -6
Models are building some big time cold across Canada and the US with an active southern jet as we head into the new year. I think winter makes a strong comeback soon One thing that is concerning is that models are hinting at some cross polar flow developing towards D7-9 which would give support to a solution more like the GFS with a big surge of arctic air and then a stout return flow on the backside potentially. That's what the GEM ensembles are showing with the mean trof setting up again along the W coast and a ridge developing in the E. But there is a split jet with a flat/confluent flow across the N tier which could set up the cold pretty close for storms to work with. This is also a pattern that could allow arctic airmass to ooze under moist SW flow aloft and set up a significant overrunning event or two...that's kind of the way I'm leaning currently...I'm not sure this pattern will support wound up cyclones for a bit. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 29, 2019 15:11:38 GMT -6
So who’s ready for Christmas 2020? HaHa just kidding.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 29, 2019 15:16:20 GMT -6
Ya overrunning events would be the way I’d lean to. I mentioned it a week or two ago but the big picture look has that ice storm look to it
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 29, 2019 15:37:44 GMT -6
Ya overrunning events would be the way I’d lean to. I mentioned it a week or two ago but the big picture look has that ice storm look to it Definitely. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 29, 2019 15:42:15 GMT -6
Also good call BRTN on another line development. Looks likes it forming now
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 29, 2019 15:47:08 GMT -6
Echoes out to the W look like mini-supercells...interesting.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 29, 2019 16:00:01 GMT -6
Noticing the mesoscale models are showing some snow shower/squall activity around here late tonight into the early morning. Soundings show the DGZ becoming low thanks to steep low level lapse rates
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 29, 2019 16:00:29 GMT -6
So who’s ready for Christmas 2020? HaHa just kidding. If anyone says "yeah, I'm done with my shopping" they get smacked! |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 29, 2019 16:11:53 GMT -6
Getting windy here in Festus!
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