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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 7, 2020 7:59:18 GMT -6
Does there look like their might be any significant lift in the atmosphere towards the end of the rain portion of this? I ask because I'm remembering much heavy rain before a transition to snow on January 30 & 31, 1982.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 7, 2020 8:04:46 GMT -6
Mostly steady as she goes. The cold front hovering near STL is going to make for a huge range in temps north to south Friday. I reluctantly warmed temps for Friday with strong ensemble agreement of a slower front Friday. That said, my confidence in this adjustment is fairly low at this time. I still like the idea of rain.. some heavy... Friday night and then a mix/change to snow Saturday. It is a storm to watch.
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 7, 2020 9:11:47 GMT -6
Does there look like their might be any significant lift in the atmosphere towards the end of the rain portion of this? I ask because I'm remembering much heavy rain before a transition to snow on January 30 & 31, 1982. Ah, the storm against which all other STL storms have and will be measured. 'Twas amazing to witnesss. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 9:31:07 GMT -6
12z Icon is amped and north.
Really gets cranking, need that to happen 100 miles east
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 10:02:54 GMT -6
12z gfs way less amped than the Icon. Has a couple inches of backside snow
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 7, 2020 10:06:14 GMT -6
Guess we are on step 5.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2020 10:08:43 GMT -6
Interesting how the gfs has a good snow area in southern and eastern sections on Saturday. Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2020 10:11:08 GMT -6
GFS getting a nice booty now
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 7, 2020 10:11:33 GMT -6
Flooding looks like a huge concern for our neck of the woods (slightly negative to neutrally tilted trough-classic heavy rain setup)...12z GFS is on the flood bandwagon.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 7, 2020 10:12:39 GMT -6
I think the slower arrival time of the cold front, thereby enhancing our heavy rain potential makes sense;
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 7, 2020 10:17:40 GMT -6
It seems like the icing threat isn't as high as before with a slower movement of the frontal boundary with more of a trend towards deformation snowfall...but still think the arctic air may undercut the precip more than models portray and set up a zone of ZR somewhere across the region with a transition to snow.
Heavy rainfall is definitely the biggest impact from this system though.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2020 10:19:43 GMT -6
SPC has 30% outlook areas for days 4 and 5 across the south
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 10:26:48 GMT -6
New gfs continues to release the artic hammer next week...
Potential 40 degree temp drop in 6 hours
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2020 10:30:53 GMT -6
New gfs continues to release the artic hammer next week... Potential 40 degree temp drop in 6 hours Yea, it actually upped the ante from previous runs. The trend of weakening the arctic hammer may have come to a halt. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2020 10:34:10 GMT -6
Lol. Gfs jas temps in the 60s in se mo at noon next wednesday, and 0 in nw mo. If it were 20 yrs ago I'd be inclined to believe it. Doesn't seem to happen these days
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 7, 2020 10:35:24 GMT -6
Well, the SLP goes from Southern Illinois to Tennessee. Compared to yesterday's runs where it just scooted ENE. Hence the snow coming right through our area instead of Central/Northern Illinois/Missouri.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2020 10:44:01 GMT -6
Lol. Gfs jas temps in the 60s in se mo at noon next wednesday, and 0 in nw mo. If it were 20 yrs ago I'd be inclined to believe it. Doesn't seem to happen these days We had a couple even more extreme events like this in the mid 2000's. I remember one I think on groundhog day in 2005-ish where it was in the low 70's during the day...severe thunderstorms with hail down this way followed by temps into the teens and 20's. There was another one a couple years later where we had a massive drop that included severe thunderstorm with hail followed by upper 30's and graupel about an hour later. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 10:44:25 GMT -6
12z ggem further north with the backside snow and more intense. Would favor the north and eastern metro
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 7, 2020 10:44:59 GMT -6
It better get cold soon. My grass is starting to green up!
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 7, 2020 10:57:44 GMT -6
It better get cold soon. My grass is starting to green up! My grass isn't as dormant as it used to be Chris. I should of cleaned up around the edges with loose leaves around and mowed one more time last weekend. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 11:09:07 GMT -6
12z ukmet blows up an intense deformation zone. Would be good for 3-6 inches for most of the metro, locally more
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 7, 2020 11:23:20 GMT -6
Lol. Gfs jas temps in the 60s in se mo at noon next wednesday, and 0 in nw mo. If it were 20 yrs ago I'd be inclined to believe it. Doesn't seem to happen these days We had a couple even more extreme events like this in the mid 2000's. I remember one I think on groundhog day in 2005-ish where it was in the low 70's during the day...severe thunderstorms with hail down this way followed by temps into the teens and 20's. There was another one a couple years later where we had a massive drop that included severe thunderstorm with hail followed by upper 30's and graupel about an hour later. Imma say that second one was 2007. It was soon after my dad passed, and I was out with my mom. had to swing by home to get my coat. The clouds looked amazing as they came in, and I knew trouble was coming. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 7, 2020 11:27:13 GMT -6
We had a couple even more extreme events like this in the mid 2000's. I remember one I think on groundhog day in 2005-ish where it was in the low 70's during the day...severe thunderstorms with hail down this way followed by temps into the teens and 20's. There was another one a couple years later where we had a massive drop that included severe thunderstorm with hail followed by upper 30's and graupel about an hour later. Imma say that second one was 2007. It was soon after my dad passed, and I was out with my mom. had to swing by home to get my coat. The clouds looked amazing as they came in, and I knew trouble was coming. Either 2007 or 2008 because I remember it was in high school before my permit because my friends mom was caravan-ing us back home as heavy sleet fell-- after svr storms a couple hours earlier |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 7, 2020 11:45:30 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 7, 2020 11:50:50 GMT -6
Man this storm for the weekend would be a beast if the cold air would just come in faster. It would be nice to turn those heavy rain totals into snow totals.
Do the models still have the heavier rain totals south of STL?
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 7, 2020 11:52:35 GMT -6
Man this storm for the weekend would be a beast if the cold air would just come in faster. It would be nice to turn those heavy rain totals into snow totals. Do the models still have the heavier rain totals south of STL? if the cold air is any faster, we'd have a crippling ice storm before we get snow. this is a power-house warm advection hose |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 7, 2020 12:02:12 GMT -6
Significant severe weather event is shaping up Friday and Saturday across TX, OK, AR, LA, MS, TN, AL and GA.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2020 12:19:26 GMT -6
Euro really blows it up and thus leaves the entire area singing in the rain/dry slotted.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 7, 2020 12:19:49 GMT -6
EURO says no snow for you. But yet no severe storms either. Lame run...
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 7, 2020 12:22:46 GMT -6
Lot of scenarios with this one. Plenty of time to be ironed out.
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