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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2020 16:46:07 GMT -6
Well 2 weeks ago, some ppl were talking up a winter event for today and tomorrow. It actually was a nice sunny day. I woke up thinking i was in Union. I think there is some climatological bias when you look at those op models more than 6 or 7 days out. Then the corner back to winter was going to be turned this week back to solid winter according to some. We need to incorporate that 2 more weeks syndrome into our life cycle document on how posts go in this forum somehow. Dont forget the posts explaining the cfs gets thrown in there somehow. 😂
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2020 16:50:39 GMT -6
Gotta say I’m pretty shocked that the shallow arctic air doesn’t want to seep further south into this thing. That used to be a slam dunk. I guess there’s still time for that to happen. What were the models showing in the ‘06 storm at this range? I don’t remember when it captured that aspect. Back forecasting in the 90s/00s... this type of pattern happened a quite a few times and models always underestimated the shallow cold. This is back when the NGM was becoming the NAM and the GFS was there but basically a second thought. Haven't seen this type of pattern with the amount of cold lurking in awhile... the cold likes to move down the front range/central plains the ease it's way east- be interesting to see how they do. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2020 16:57:25 GMT -6
I propose we chg step 14 to read something like this...posters decide that this was never our storm because the teleconnections didnt line up right. The outlook for the teleconnections suggest we get cold and stormy in about 2 weeks. Step 15...after 2 weeks still no sign of winter. Posters get on each others nerves for breathing and someone says "we need a good storm to follow".
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 6, 2020 17:07:53 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 6, 2020 17:09:33 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 6, 2020 17:29:28 GMT -6
I definitely would like to see more ensemble support, hopefully we can get enough cold air in the mix.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 18:07:12 GMT -6
Both the gem and gfs show major cold filtering in by the day 7-10 range...
There is a possible storm this weekend and indications for more with the aforementioned cold dump.
The people saying winter wasn’t shut down until February seem to be doing okay 👌
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2020 18:30:31 GMT -6
Both the gem and gfs show major cold filtering in by the day 7-10 range... There is a possible storm this weekend and indications for more with the aforementioned cold dump. The people saying winter wasn’t shut down until February seem to be doing okay 👌 PNA is forecast to begin to trend towards negative in a week or so. That should help break down the persistent SE ridge and allow the big time cold up in Canada to ooze south |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 18:47:50 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2020 18:48:16 GMT -6
Both the gem and gfs show major cold filtering in by the day 7-10 range... There is a possible storm this weekend and indications for more with the aforementioned cold dump. The people saying winter wasn’t shut down until February seem to be doing okay 👌 To be fair, it's not what the models show, it's what actually happens |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 18:51:57 GMT -6
Both the gem and gfs show major cold filtering in by the day 7-10 range... There is a possible storm this weekend and indications for more with the aforementioned cold dump. The people saying winter wasn’t shut down until February seem to be doing okay 👌 To be fair, it's not what the models show, it's what actually happens Well, we won’t know that for 5-10 days so we can catchup then🤷🏻♂️ Assuming we all survive the Dust Bowl |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2020 20:48:15 GMT -6
So, what I'm reading...more of the same next two weeks. Beyond that, anybody's guess. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 21:02:31 GMT -6
So, what I'm reading...more of the same next two weeks. Beyond that, anybody's guess. Not really...he notes the potential for a reflective event on or around the 13th. These events usually have more immediate tropospheric impacts than absorptive events. It’s January 6th, so the 7-10 day range where models are showing artic air spilling into the western and central US seems supported |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2020 21:21:14 GMT -6
So, what I'm reading...more of the same next two weeks. Beyond that, anybody's guess. Not really...he notes the potential for a reflective event on or around the 13th. These events usually have more immediate tropospheric impacts than absorptive events. It’s January 6th, so the 7-10 day range where models are showing artic air spilling into the western and central US seems supported hence my comment about the guess work. I'm taking that with a huge grain of salt bc his reasoning was that it was highly unusual for the pv to remain so strong all winter. I didn't note anything all that scientific to justify a pv perturbation. He's smart, but he's just conveying a possibility, is the way I read it. ao and nao to remain positive for the next couple weeks, snow cover in both na and Eurasia near their decadal lows. Counterpoint, negative pna could encourage increase in snow cover in na. However, he did call out 92 93 where the pv was strong all winter.....recall in February 93, we got those two big snows. That's likely to happen this year, imo, due to all the cold in Canada, and as Spring approaches, we gain more amplitude in these waves. That's what I am counting on, to get our seasonal snow up to 20 inches. It was not terribly cold....the high both days in 93 when it snowed was in the upper 30s. I'm confident that we will have good chances for snow...the wet variety that will feel like concrete.
short term, as for this weekend, I think bc of the ice potential, we need to watch it. It could be an impactful event. I'm certainly not going to talk it down - after that fr dz a couple Decembers ago, I've got new respect for low end high impact events like that. Even if rain transitioned to snow with little ice, there's enough water to freeze up, and MODOT will not be able to do anything about it with the 2 to 3 inches of rain.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 6, 2020 22:01:14 GMT -6
Lol, gfs keeps getting warmer for the weekend. I’ll be basking in the 60’s Friday night!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2020 22:07:07 GMT -6
We might get a few flakes if gfs is right..as I expect us to.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2020 22:07:51 GMT -6
GFS dosent get that backside going like the Euro. Hopefully the euro still has a good booty tonight
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 6, 2020 22:10:42 GMT -6
GFS looks like an ice storm to me maybe ending as some snow for at least part of the region. Brings down the 1020mb high with the cold front splitting the region. This won’t allow that low to cut any further north. Verbatim looks like 8-10hrs of precipitation falling with 2m temps at or below freezing. Pretty scary run in my opinion.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 22:16:11 GMT -6
GFS looks like an ice storm to me maybe ending as some snow for at least part of the region. Brings down the 1020mb high with the cold front splitting the region. This won’t allow that low to cut any further north. Verbatim looks like 8-10hrs of precipitation falling with 2m temps at or below freezing. Pretty scary run in my opinion. Maybe for Kirksville to Chicago, but the raw output is too warm for STL until the backside that would be all snow |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 6, 2020 22:16:33 GMT -6
I believe 29°F is the magic number for ice to rapidly begin to form. GFS suggest easily 6hrs of somewhat moderate precipitation with temps crashed in the 25-27°F range especially along and north/northwest of 44.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 6, 2020 22:24:06 GMT -6
I believe 29°F is the magic number for ice to rapidly begin to form. GFS suggest easily 6hrs of somewhat moderate precipitation with temps crashed in the 25-27°F range especially along and north/northwest of 44. Looks like backside snow to me. Yes there will be a transition zone but not as major as you are making it out to be IMO |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 6, 2020 22:26:58 GMT -6
I believe 29°F is the magic number for ice to rapidly begin to form. GFS suggest easily 6hrs of somewhat moderate precipitation with temps crashed in the 25-27°F range especially along and north/northwest of 44. Looks like backside snow to me. Yes there will be a transition zone but not as major as you are making it out to be IMO I agree. The forecast sounding suggest it will be mostly snow but also factor in flash freeze conditions with wet snow falling and sticking to everything. I tend to think it’s something that needs to be watched especially with no road treatment in my opinion. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 22:27:51 GMT -6
00z gfs still has Barney coming to town next week...
That’s a hella strong cold front
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 22:40:51 GMT -6
00z ggem with a nice backside Saturday evening for the metro
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 6, 2020 23:06:06 GMT -6
We might get a few flakes if gfs is right..as I expect us to. I think u expected one flake so 2 or more will make u happy. 😉 |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 23:10:02 GMT -6
00z ukmet hits hard Saturday evening. Probably good for 4-6 inches of snow area wide, maybe locally higher.
I’m not staying up for the euro, but this obviously bodes well for it.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 7, 2020 0:22:34 GMT -6
EURO still looks good for potent secondary development.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2020 0:24:57 GMT -6
Euro has a big booty
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 7, 2020 5:47:10 GMT -6
06z GFS is an improvement.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 7, 2020 6:09:40 GMT -6
From NWS
(Thursday - Saturday Night)
Much more active weather is still expected to affect the region
beginning on Thursday. Multiple rounds of rainfall are very likely
between Thursday and Saturday morning, with a focus on the Friday
night/early Saturday morning period for the potential for the
heaviest rainfall rates. This is when the forcing is the strongest,
coincident with precipitable water values 3-4 standard deviations
above normal and 850-hPa u wind (southerly component) anomalies
over 2 sigma. In addition, models have some weak elevated
instability which suggests that higher rainfall rates would be
possible in thunderstorms. By the time the precipitation ends
Saturday evening, total liquid-equivalent amounts of 1-3" are
likely across the area. Highest values still are expected across
portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois where
locally higher amounts above 3" are possible. These storm total
amounts agree very well with the EPS/GEFS ensemble means. EPS
probabilities suggest everyone in the CWA is likely to receive at
least 1" of QPF, with roughly 60-70 percent probabilities of
getting at least 2" across portions of southeastern Missouri and
southwest Illinois. This rainfall may cause some hydrological
issues across parts of the region in the form of rising
rivers/streams. In addition, a flash flood threat may evolve if
high rainfall rates persist over the same areas for a lengthy
period of time. Will issue an ESF to highlight at least the
possibility of minor river flooding and flash flood potential for
southeastern sections of the forecast area.
In addition to heavy rainfall, we are also watching the late Friday
night through Saturday evening time period for wintry weather. As
the frontal boundary oozes southeastward, a seasonably strong
Canadian airmass across the Upper Midwest will at least attempt to
move into portions of our area. As the warm air advection
precipitation departs from west to east, we could see a
transition to freezing rain and/or sleet as the low-level cold air
deepens. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with how
fast (and deep) the cold air will spill into the region late
Friday night into Saturday so kept precipitation types as
rain/snow for now. The secondary shortwave early Saturday morning
is forecast to move northeastward and may become negatively
tilted by afternoon. Some type of deformation zone should slide
from southwest to northeast across the area Saturday afternoon and
evening, which will have the chance of producing some snowfall.
There is still a large amount of uncertainty with how this
secondary shortwave trough will evolve however, with individual
ensemble members displaying a wide range of tracks/strengths. The
50-member EPS is a bit snowier for this period of time suggesting
multiple inches of snow are possible across northwestern sections
of the forecast area. However, the GEFS has lighter amounts,
probably because many of its members are not as strong with the
secondary shortwave, which fails to become negatively tilted. We
still have plenty of time to watch this system regarding snowfall,
but at this early juncture at least light snowfall amounts are
more likely than not for areas north and west of metropolitan St.
Louis.
Temperatures are expected to be very mild ahead of the strong cold
front with readings 10-20 degrees above normal Thursday - Friday.
Colder air will enter the area from the northwest behind the
front, with falling temperatures expected on Saturday. Lows
Saturday night are forecast to be back closer to normal, generally
in the 20s.
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