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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 7, 2020 16:00:05 GMT -6
GFS coming in a touch north, almost enough to get us into the warm sector with severe storms before the front slams though just as the greater energy comes in. Result is we get soaked with a massive orange/red shield of rain with embedded thunder.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2020 16:01:43 GMT -6
GFS still shows a good backside for the area. Much more subdued with the low formation than the euro
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 16:04:57 GMT -6
GFS still shows a good backside for the area. Much more subdued with the low formation than the euro It’s clearly trending north with the kicker, but not nearly like the euro. Hopefully, they meet in the middle |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 16:31:18 GMT -6
18z gfs has the artic blast next week along with a winter storm. Nice
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 7, 2020 17:35:44 GMT -6
18z gfs has the artic blast next week along with a winter storm. Nice Not sure if the tail wags the dog or vice versa, but teleconnections would imply a hefty winter storm around the 17th. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 7, 2020 17:55:08 GMT -6
Wow glenn!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 7, 2020 17:59:59 GMT -6
It will be hard to sleep tonight.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 7, 2020 18:04:42 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 7, 2020 18:06:47 GMT -6
He was talking about possibilities next week. |
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 7, 2020 18:21:01 GMT -6
It will be hard to sleep tonight. Indeed. I think we can safely say we have entered uncharted territory. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 7, 2020 18:23:18 GMT -6
Man I miss the evening forecast being posted on Facebook. What was said!?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 7, 2020 18:38:02 GMT -6
It will be hard to sleep tonight. Hope it isn't mil related. My son got notice. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 7, 2020 18:38:13 GMT -6
GFS is forecasting precipitable water values approaching 1.5" this weekend. Compared to neighboring sounding site climatology at SGF/ILX this would be historically high if not record breaking for this time of year. There also seems to be a trend for increased instability (including surface based) all the way up to I-70 which can only aggravate the heavy rainfall potential. We may have to start thinking about the northward extent of severe weather relative to existing SPC outlined areas as well.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 7, 2020 18:49:34 GMT -6
GFS is forecasting precipitable water values approaching 1.5" this weekend. Compared to neighboring sounding site climatology at SGF/ILX this would be historically high if not record breaking for this time of year. There also seems to be a trend for increased instability (including surface based) all the way up to I-70 which can only aggravate the heavy rainfall potential. We may have to start thinking about the northward extent of severe weather relative to existing SPC outlined areas as well. I really like this site that KUNR provides www.weather.gov/unr/uac#www.weather.gov/images/unr/soo/pw/084h-PWpct.png |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 7, 2020 18:50:47 GMT -6
GFS is forecasting precipitable water values approaching 1.5" this weekend. Compared to neighboring sounding site climatology at SGF/ILX this would be historically high if not record breaking for this time of year. There also seems to be a trend for increased instability (including surface based) all the way up to I-70 which can only aggravate the heavy rainfall potential. We may have to start thinking about the northward extent of severe weather relative to existing SPC outlined areas as well. NAM also certainly shows the threat growing up through the warm sector/triple point. This stream is going to be a fresh flush straight out of the GoM |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2020 18:51:46 GMT -6
What the heck did I miss?
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 7, 2020 18:59:31 GMT -6
What the heck did I miss? I think we're cross-diluting Glenn's forecast and international relations? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2020 19:03:09 GMT -6
Only thing mildly surprising I heard Glenn say was possible below zero temps next week
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 7, 2020 19:38:29 GMT -6
It will be hard to sleep tonight. Praying everything will be ok for you. I suspect this post is not weather related and praying for all those impacted by tonight’s sad and scary news. As always, THANK YOU for your service Chris!! |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 7, 2020 19:41:06 GMT -6
Please stay safe Chris! You are in my prayers.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2020 19:48:06 GMT -6
Oh my. That’s what happens when you don’t look at your phone or the news for an hour.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 7, 2020 20:02:52 GMT -6
What the heck did I miss? I think we're cross-diluting Glenn's forecast and international relations? Im sorry. I was responding to something glenn said that was weather related. But the important story now has turned to iran. Thoughts and prayers to our military. We will do what we have to do. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 7, 2020 20:36:49 GMT -6
I’m supposed to retire in August....
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2020 20:39:24 GMT -6
Friday night looks pretty nasty across the Deep South on the 00z NAM
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 7, 2020 20:59:18 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 7, 2020 21:01:51 GMT -6
Great googly moogly!
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 7, 2020 21:08:54 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 21:26:16 GMT -6
00z Icon has come in a bit southeast, setting the stage for more deformation zone action.
That’s good to see
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2020 21:59:48 GMT -6
GFS looks pretty solid for backside snow/ice
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 22:00:28 GMT -6
00z gfs is good for a few inches of snow on the backside...
It remains the weak and southern outlier
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