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Post by maddogchief on Jan 7, 2020 22:02:28 GMT -6
ILX isn’t too jazzed about this weekend. Except for rain. They’re a little jazzed about that.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 7, 2020 22:14:08 GMT -6
My sister, the physics teacher wanted me to ask you guys this...
Why do electrons gather at the base of a cloud creating a negative charge during a thunderstorm while making the top of the cloud positive? Why isnt it positive at the top and negative on the bottom?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2020 22:14:53 GMT -6
18z euro ensembles did look slightly less amped up than the 12z run
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 22:23:36 GMT -6
00z gfs holding firm to a storm midweek next week followed by extreme cold.
Very consistent
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2020 22:27:38 GMT -6
00z gfs holding firm to a storm midweek next week followed by extreme cold. Very consistent Soundings around the metro would indicate freezing drizzle with temps crashing through the 20’s and into the teens. Very impressive push of shallow arctic air |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2020 22:30:08 GMT -6
Gfs is usually consistent ..until it changes a few days before the event.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 22:39:58 GMT -6
00z ggem joining the amped camp... no good
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Post by jeepers on Jan 7, 2020 22:42:27 GMT -6
I for one think that more mud is not groovy.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2020 22:43:32 GMT -6
00z ukmet looks great. 1001mb low near the benchmark...not perfect, but much better.
I bet the euro looks tame compared to 12z
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2020 22:52:16 GMT -6
GEFS starting to look better
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 7, 2020 23:44:00 GMT -6
00z ukmet looks great. 1001mb low near the benchmark...not perfect, but much better. I bet the euro looks tame compared to 12z That is one very wet UKMET run ending with heavy deformation snow to the northwest of STL. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2020 23:51:58 GMT -6
00z ukmet looks great. 1001mb low near the benchmark...not perfect, but much better. I bet the euro looks tame compared to 12z That is one very wet UKMET run ending with heavy deformation snow to the northwest of STL. Cant really see ukmet on my phone. How much would it snow in stl...guessing ..light...moderate? None? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2020 0:06:30 GMT -6
That is one very wet UKMET run ending with heavy deformation snow to the northwest of STL. Cant really see ukmet on my phone. How much would it snow in stl...guessing ..light...moderate? None? The deformation zone is intense and hits the metro hard. 4-8? Maybe more |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 8, 2020 0:10:28 GMT -6
Cant really see ukmet on my phone. How much would it snow in stl...guessing ..light...moderate? None? The deformation zone is intense and hits the metro hard. 4-8? Maybe more 4-8" on a Rolla to Peoria line. Some areas are getting like 6" of rain before that. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2020 0:16:03 GMT -6
Euro is less amplified compared to 12z...looks pretty damn good. 996mb low in Indiana
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2020 0:18:55 GMT -6
Euro does look much better than the last run. Still keeps the heaviest snow west and north of the metro but not like the 12z run
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 8, 2020 3:32:57 GMT -6
6z ICON continues a bit more south and a much better backside than 00z. Gives everyone in immediate metro 2-3”.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 8, 2020 6:14:02 GMT -6
The big story is the very intense rain and flash flooding with 4 or so inches if rain falling in a relatively short period of time and by that i mean its a long duration event but the heavy stuff falling friday afternoon into saturday morning. Not really looking at the snow potential other than its looking like a light snow event for the metro.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2020 7:06:13 GMT -6
6z euro is amped again
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2020 7:09:14 GMT -6
Nam is north too. I'll take the GFS haha. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2020 7:17:20 GMT -6
Nam is north too. I'll take the GFS haha. Nam is a little north, but nowhere near the euro intensity. It is going sub 990mb. Actually gets the deformation zone close to the river. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2020 9:17:32 GMT -6
06z euro ensembles were pretty far west. I have a feeling we may be to far east for this one
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2020 9:28:17 GMT -6
06z euro ensembles were pretty far west. I have a feeling we may be to far east for this one 12z Icon looks pretty reasonable. Not as amplified, keeps the brunt of the deformation zone to the west, but still swipes parts of the viewing area with some ice and snow. Can’t say I recall a deformation zone with ice before though, that would seem unusual |
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Post by snowday_lover on Jan 8, 2020 9:37:36 GMT -6
06z euro ensembles were pretty far west. I have a feeling we may be to far east for this one 12z Icon looks pretty reasonable. Not as amplified, keeps the brunt of the deformation zone to the west, but still swipes parts of the viewing area with some ice and snow. Can’t say I recall a deformation zone with ice before though, that would seem unusual Are we talking about it hitting all of the viewing area, or a just a certain portion? I'm very concerned about potential flooding here in the southern county, but should I also be looking for a little ice/snow as well? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2020 9:51:27 GMT -6
12z Icon looks pretty reasonable. Not as amplified, keeps the brunt of the deformation zone to the west, but still swipes parts of the viewing area with some ice and snow. Can’t say I recall a deformation zone with ice before though, that would seem unusual Are we talking about it hitting all of the viewing area, or a just a certain portion? I'm very concerned about potential flooding here in the southern county, but should I also be looking for a little ice/snow as well? The further south and east you are the greater the long shot for meaningful winter weather. Unless you put all your eggs in the gfs, which continues to push for a burst of accumulating snow in southeast Missouri. It has no support though, so I would ignore it for now |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 8, 2020 9:54:47 GMT -6
SREF's have a minimum of 2.1" and max of just over 4". Mean is just below 3". Through Sat. Afternoon.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2020 9:56:46 GMT -6
Gfs still has that nice snowband along and SE of 44. The snowfall map from 12z shows the ‘ol STL Split quite well and would make a great t shirt cover.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2020 9:58:29 GMT -6
SREF's have a minimum of 2.1" and max of just over 4". Mean is just below 3". Through Sat. Afternoon. Assuming those are rain amounts? Oh, wait...it's St. Louis in January...of course those are rain amounts, lol. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2020 10:02:31 GMT -6
I noticed the euro last night joined the GFS in showing a very strong cold front and system in 7-8 days
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 8, 2020 10:10:47 GMT -6
SREF's have a minimum of 2.1" and max of just over 4". Mean is just below 3". Through Sat. Afternoon. Assuming those are rain amounts? Oh, wait...it's St. Louis in January...of course those are rain amounts, lol. Lol... yes. At this point I want this thing to move further NW so I don't have to clear my basement out of water again. |
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