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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2020 12:35:24 GMT -6
The sleet at the onset could be a game changer as well as cooler than forecast temps...thinking the advisory should be expanded further SE into the Metro East as 920 said.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2020 12:45:02 GMT -6
Many models have been showing a period of sleet at the onset, the November storm had a 15-20 minute period of sleet that covered everything, followed by moderate snow and dropping temps. The roads were covered in 20 minutes and stayed covered. That was the middle of the day . We will be heading into the evening as the snow is falling. I think there will be more problems on the roads than people think. All morning the local Mets said , with the recent warm temps, snow will not be a problem on the roads. I guess we will see.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 11, 2020 12:50:49 GMT -6
Many models have been showing a period of sleet at the onset, the November storm had a 15-20 minute period of sleet that covered everything, followed by moderate snow and dropping temps. The roads were covered in 20 minutes and stayed covered. That was the middle of the day . We will be heading into the evening as the snow is falling. I think there will be more problems on the roads than people think. All morning the local Mets said , with the recent warm temps, snow will not be a problem on the roads. I guess we will see. Ground temps are never an issue if you're talking about heavy snow or sleet falling on it...once a layer of ice or snow gets established, the warm ground is taken out of the equasion. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 11, 2020 12:56:52 GMT -6
Hope Daisy's alright Chris! Yes as others have alluded to, I think the NWS is down playing this one. There will be no solar insolation...after 6pm when the heaviest sleet/snow happens. As Brtn just said we weren't supposed to be near freezing till early this evening. IMO MODOT has a chance to bust this one up. I think 2" of snow is doable in the central/western STL metro. Edit (after 4pm).
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2020 13:00:06 GMT -6
I just posted this on my facebook page...  **MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON*** The heavy rain side of our latest storm system has pushed off to the east leaving behind 3 to 6 inches of rainfall. Now the cold air is taking over and attention turns to the winter side...with light accumulating snow and sleet likely for roughly the northwest half of the viewing area...and northwest half of the metro. This will be a pretty quick hit of winter weather. A mix of freezing drizzle, sleet and snow will rapidly overspread the region between 2pm and 4pm...with most of the precipitation quickly switching to wet snow. The snow may come down at a pretty decent clip for a couple of hours before rapidly moving off to the northeast. The primetime for winter weather will be 3pm to 8pm. The heaviest snow will fall near and just northwest of I-44 in Missouri and west of I-55 in Illinois. 1 to 3 inches of snow/sleet mix is expected in this band...which includes the northwestern and western portions of metro St. Louis. Snow accumulations will rapidly drop off to the east with 1" or less along and just east of I-55 in Illinois...and southeast of I-44 in Missouri. Little if any snow/sleet is expected southeast of the Kaskaskia River in Illinois...and near and south of Farmington/Park Hills area in Missouri. Roads are likely to become at the very least a little slushy for a while late this afternoon into this evening...especially west and north of downtown St. Louis. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2020 13:01:07 GMT -6
The sleet at the onset could be a game changer as well as cooler than forecast temps...thinking the advisory should be expanded further SE into the Metro East as 920 said. I agree based on radar trends and latest short term mesoscale models. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2020 13:04:03 GMT -6
Chris’s map is spot on what I think will happen
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Jan 11, 2020 13:09:32 GMT -6
Snowing pretty hard in Springfield and ground white. Parking lots getting white
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2020 13:13:06 GMT -6
NWS just advised in their chatroom that no expansion is currently planned.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 11, 2020 13:25:57 GMT -6
Having no trouble sticking on roads
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2020 13:27:01 GMT -6
Thanks for the southern updates cowboy
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 11, 2020 13:32:40 GMT -6
It started as moderate freezing rain for about 15 to 20 mins then switched to heavy sleet for quite a while then switched to snowing moderately heavily.
That rain washed allot of the chemical off the roads then add the sleet on top then snow it has been sticking even to major roads.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 11, 2020 13:36:05 GMT -6
It started as moderate freezing rain for about 15 to 20 mins then switched to heavy sleet for quite a while then switched to snowing moderately heavily. That rain washed allot of the chemical off the roads then add the sleet on top then snow it has been sticking even to major roads. This seems like a good litmus test for what's rolling up 44... surprised they're not budging on a WWA... |
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197
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Post by cowboy on Jan 11, 2020 13:40:37 GMT -6
Luckily it is very plowable wet snow. Just hard for modot to keep up. I’m sure they will have it cleaned up pretty fast once it ends. Until colder overnight hours make ice slick spots. But during the event roads definitely slick and covered.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 11, 2020 13:40:55 GMT -6
I sure hope we are not on the outside looking in yet again..... I’m not sure I can take a 5 mile miss for the 4th time this year
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2020 13:42:09 GMT -6
HAd 3.25" here. Really thought we'd get more, higher numbers all around. Odd. We're a rain hole too.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2020 13:44:48 GMT -6
18z NAM is overdone for sure, but it drops 4-6” right up 44
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2020 13:47:02 GMT -6
The radar is blowing up along and north of I 44. This should be a fun little evening storm. Might be our only snow for a while
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2020 13:48:53 GMT -6
Freezimg rain and small sleet in st.peters now temp 31.9
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 11, 2020 13:50:11 GMT -6
It is accumulating efficiently, ground temps be damned.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2020 13:51:45 GMT -6
a light rain has started here. something different. 31.5*
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280 
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Post by snowcat on Jan 11, 2020 13:54:11 GMT -6
It's icy up here in Bowling Green, with freezing rain. 29*
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2020 13:55:28 GMT -6
Light freezing rain and 31.8 in Wentzville, it looks like a few sleet pellets as well
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 11, 2020 13:58:17 GMT -6
Heavy mist in High Ridge. Car says 34 degrees
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2020 13:59:42 GMT -6
Heavy mist falling in Arnold. Luckily temp is just above freezing so no freezing on surfaces
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Post by landscaper on Jan 11, 2020 14:02:27 GMT -6
I like to see the 35-40 dbz around Rolla , marching up I44 most likely sleet , but a good site
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 396
Member is Online
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 11, 2020 14:09:25 GMT -6
Heavy sleet falling here in Silex.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 11, 2020 14:11:38 GMT -6
It is 37 degrees here. Long way to cool before I see anything freezing precip wise.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2020 14:11:40 GMT -6
decent rain and sleet coming down now
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 11, 2020 14:12:35 GMT -6
18Z NAM is beefy
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