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Post by dschreib on Jan 16, 2020 10:32:01 GMT -6
Can you post the link please? What link? This one:
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Post by dschreib on Jan 16, 2020 10:33:02 GMT -6
From the disco (disco duck)
Still...these kind of storm systems with mixed precip are tough to forecast, and only minor changes to the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere will have a huge impact on precip types and amounts. Therefore I only have medium confidence in the current precip types/amounts at this time. The trough won`t be fully onshore until this evening anyway...so we`re still not sampling it with our upper air network which also decreases confidence in the forecast guidance. Since the onset of precip is still at least 24 hours away at this time, and because confidence is not particularly high, I opted to hold on to the winter storm watch this morning rather than upgrading to an advisory or warning. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2020 10:37:48 GMT -6
This pattern sucks out loud. I really thought we were going to be in business.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 16, 2020 10:39:48 GMT -6
Just two more weeks. Wait. That's when the next rainstorm hits. Wait..that's just next week!
Pitchers and catchers report in .. how many days?
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 10:46:40 GMT -6
SLU has a big home game tomorrow night.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 16, 2020 10:49:13 GMT -6
SLU has a big home game tomorrow night. I know! I'm supposed to go, and my buddies are planning the night as if no weather is going to happen...go to a bar early, walk over the Arena..I'm like..uh..fellas...ice? snow? rain? |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 16, 2020 11:11:55 GMT -6
NWS has scheduled a conference call for 2pm this afternoon to discuss tomorrow’s event
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mmkjmg
Weather Weenie
Posts: 21 
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Post by mmkjmg on Jan 16, 2020 11:12:02 GMT -6
I usually leave Columbia at 2:00 a.m. and commute to Cuba. From what I am hearing from the board here is my morning commute will be good. But my evening commute, about 4:30, will not be an enjoyable one. Anyone concur?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 16, 2020 11:16:49 GMT -6
NWS has scheduled a conference call for 2pm this afternoon to discuss tomorrow’s event Can you please go ahead and conference me in? I'll send you my phone number. |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
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Post by Jeke on Jan 16, 2020 11:16:54 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 11:19:48 GMT -6
I usually leave Columbia at 2:00 a.m. and commute to Cuba. From what I am hearing from the board here is my morning commute will be good. But my evening commute, about 4:30, will not be an enjoyable one. Anyone concur? Yep. Precip doesn't look to break out til closer to sunrise. And yes, evening commute could be pretty tricky. I'd assume 63/50 will be OK, doesn't seem like the kind of storm that will get highways/interstates... but local/state roads could be a hassle. This is a tough call because 2 or 3 degrees makes a huge difference. Another factor is if we get sleet to coat the roads before the zr... that's when things are going to get nasty. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 11:26:36 GMT -6
Well the HRRRRRRRRR flat out sucks!! It’s going to take the hrrr a while to catch onto this one. It struggles with low level temps. Mainly warming them to fast during the day |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 16, 2020 11:30:48 GMT -6
What is the GFS showing this morning please
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 16, 2020 11:31:47 GMT -6
Guess what I’m asking is on a level of 1-10 how is this going to be to the 2006 ice event.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 16, 2020 11:40:24 GMT -6
Gfs actually looks a little more icy in my untrained opinion.... you know it’s bad when we can’t even get fantasy snow on the GFS
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 11:41:00 GMT -6
Guess what I’m asking is on a level of 1-10 how is this going to be to the 2006 ice event. 0 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 11:44:13 GMT -6
What is the GFS showing this morning please Also small amounts of snow and sleet
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 11:44:31 GMT -6
We may never see anything like 2006 again.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 16, 2020 11:45:49 GMT -6
We may never see anything like 2006 again. thank God. Power was out and it was friggin' freezing. almost ran out of firewood to keep the family room warm. |
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Post by REB on Jan 16, 2020 11:46:33 GMT -6
We may never see anything like 2006 again. That would be perfectly all right with me. |
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Post by yypc on Jan 16, 2020 11:51:50 GMT -6
We may never see anything like 2006 again. That was only around .5-.75” of ice in the metro right? I dont think that is too difficult to see again. I read this about the storm that will likely never be replicated. “Bloomington IL received 3” of ice followed by 17.6” of snow.” |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 11:52:50 GMT -6
We may never see anything like 2006 again. That was only around .5-.75” of ice in the metro right? I dont think that is too difficult to see again. I read this about the storm that will likely never be replicated. “Bloomington IL received 3” of ice followed by 17.6” of snow.” Halfway joking considering we haven't been close since then. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 11:53:10 GMT -6
Yeah, this storm is like, once in a lifetime for any given area. Incredible.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 16, 2020 12:00:50 GMT -6
We got one of the last generators in the area that week. After we got it all hooked up that night and going we got lucky and the power came back on the next morning.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 16, 2020 12:04:35 GMT -6
What year was the Bloomington Ill storm?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 12:08:03 GMT -6
Euro  |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 16, 2020 12:09:45 GMT -6
Glad this ice won’t last for days, the rain will take care of business! I miss snow!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 12:10:16 GMT -6
The battle between the WAA and DAM will be interesting to watch unfold. A tenth of precep one way or another will have big impacts obviously
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 16, 2020 12:24:58 GMT -6
It's funny. 2006 was a nuisance storm for me and one that barely remains on my radar until it gets discussed here. In Carlyle, temps mostly remained just above freezing after some initial ice accretion which really limited its impact.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 16, 2020 12:26:55 GMT -6
That was only around .5-.75” of ice in the metro right? I dont think that is too difficult to see again. I read this about the storm that will likely never be replicated. “Bloomington IL received 3” of ice followed by 17.6” of snow.” Halfway joking considering we haven't been close since then. I have trouble believing we wont get that amount of ice again, I think(hope) we will storm with that much impactful again, at least from power outages in the immediate metro area. Since there was the storm over the summer and that ice storm Ameren stepped up the tree trimming efforts 4 fold and as communities mature buried power lines becomes the new norm more and more. For example if a road is widened its become an expectation to bury the power lines to help provide better right of way and to help prevent mass outages. As far as I amounts go, honestly the area is due for a storm, a major one for sure. We have had lots of ice events from glazes(think December 17th 2016) that cause large impact but minimal long term damage to the local eco system vs 2006. Those type event are also increasingly more important for the area from an environmental perspective in how they act as mother natures tree trimming service like the wind storm from July 2006 was for the area as well. Over all, we have not had any high ice accumulation events and so in many ways the longer we go without one, the more damaging and impactful it will be on the area. The tree cant fall on the power lines twice in the same year if it fell last year  |
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