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Post by dschreib on Jan 16, 2020 12:49:13 GMT -6
I forgot to post this the other morning. Cool frost on the truck hood.  And I guess it was more ice than frost. I think we had frost, then it melted and froze again through the night. It definitely scraped like ice. Weird. Still at least 32* cool, though, since it was ice... |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 16, 2020 12:54:06 GMT -6
 Also this, which you can use for most wintry storms. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 16, 2020 13:01:39 GMT -6
I forgot to post this the other morning. Cool frost on the truck hood. Frost is always cool cuz it forms at about 32 degrees F!  
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2020 13:20:24 GMT -6
Parts of the CWA may need an ice storm warning if trends continue, IMO. The cold antecedent conditions is going to favor rapid buildup of ice, IMO...temps in the low 20s overnight will chill the ground. Central/NE MO seems favored currently.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 13:33:24 GMT -6
HRRR getting into range and starting to look quite healthy.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 13:35:27 GMT -6
Looking at the composite on the models really shows how strong the dry air is that we are dealing with here.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 13:39:11 GMT -6
hrrr is also very aggressive with warm air advection... basically no mix. Goes snow, 30 mins of sleet to rain and 35
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2020 13:41:31 GMT -6
hrrr is also very aggressive with warm air advection... basically no mix. Goes snow, 30 mins of sleet to rain and 35 5-6 degree difference from RAP in spots |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2020 14:02:58 GMT -6
hrrr is also very aggressive with warm air advection... basically no mix. Goes snow, 30 mins of sleet to rain and 35 As said, that's a common bias with the HRRR. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 14:05:26 GMT -6
Comparing the NAM sim radar to what it actually has falling is pretty crazy. The dry low level SE flow just eats the expanding precep shield alive
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2020 14:14:41 GMT -6
With that said, there're several hours on the NAM where conditions for accretion look favorable. This is a sounding over the metro tomorrow afternoon  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 16, 2020 14:22:16 GMT -6
Nothing relevant to report from the NWS Conference call, unfortunately I was only able to call in and was not able to view via webinar and see the latest graphics. Updates should be coming out around 3:30 - 4:00, sounds as if some expansion to advisory products will be occurring, but I cannot accurately report what those will be as I missed viewing the graphics.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 14:36:16 GMT -6
Nothing relevant to report from the NWS Conference call, unfortunately I was only able to call in and was not able to view via webinar and see the latest graphics. Updates should be coming out around 3:30 - 4:00, sounds as if some expansion to advisory products will be occurring, but I cannot accurately report what those will be as I missed viewing the graphics. WWA** included stl county. they were going to attach an areal flood advisory as well. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 14:39:21 GMT -6
looks like 28 is all we're going to get to today. High/mid levels clouds have occluded the sun
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Post by mchafin on Jan 16, 2020 14:40:10 GMT -6
Nothing relevant to report from the NWS Conference call, unfortunately I was only able to call in and was not able to view via webinar and see the latest graphics. Updates should be coming out around 3:30 - 4:00, sounds as if some expansion to advisory products will be occurring, but I cannot accurately report what those will be as I missed viewing the graphics. See how easy MSP's winter graphics are. Has this happened for us in the last, I don't know, 10 years? Check this out |
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Post by scmhack on Jan 16, 2020 14:46:55 GMT -6
Nothing relevant to report from the NWS Conference call, unfortunately I was only able to call in and was not able to view via webinar and see the latest graphics. Updates should be coming out around 3:30 - 4:00, sounds as if some expansion to advisory products will be occurring, but I cannot accurately report what those will be as I missed viewing the graphics. See how easy MSP's winter graphics are. Has this happened for us in the last, I don't know, 10 years? Check this outLast year around thanksgiving |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2020 14:52:08 GMT -6
Nothing relevant to report from the NWS Conference call, unfortunately I was only able to call in and was not able to view via webinar and see the latest graphics. Updates should be coming out around 3:30 - 4:00, sounds as if some expansion to advisory products will be occurring, but I cannot accurately report what those will be as I missed viewing the graphics. See how easy MSP's winter graphics are. Has this happened for us in the last, I don't know, 10 years? Check this outDid you already forget this one? www.weather.gov/lsx/01_11_2019 |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 14:56:00 GMT -6
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Post by perryville on Jan 16, 2020 14:59:58 GMT -6
Paducah didn’t want to get caught sleeping again. Winter weather advisories for their northern and western counties. Going to be a game time decision for school administrators.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2020 15:00:31 GMT -6
WWA will go up shortly areawide as Paduach, KY has issued them for their far northwestern counties bordering LSX's WFO.
Edit There it is just as I posted this. WWA for the entire WFO area.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2020 15:02:19 GMT -6
Wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to an ice storm warning overnight particularly along and north of I-70 mainly in Missouri.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2020 15:03:29 GMT -6
Now the rush to Schnucks or insert favorite grocery store begins for bread, milk, and eggs... Oh and butter.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 16, 2020 15:04:57 GMT -6
Halfway joking considering we haven't been close since then. I have trouble believing we wont get that amount of ice again, I think(hope) we will storm with that much impactful again, at least from power outages in the immediate metro area. Since there was the storm over the summer and that ice storm Ameren stepped up the tree trimming efforts 4 fold and as communities mature buried power lines becomes the new norm more and more. For example if a road is widened its become an expectation to bury the power lines to help provide better right of way and to help prevent mass outages. As far as I amounts go, honestly the area is due for a storm, a major one for sure. We have had lots of ice events from glazes(think December 17th 2016) that cause large impact but minimal long term damage to the local eco system vs 2006. Those type event are also increasingly more important for the area from an environmental perspective in how they act as mother natures tree trimming service like the wind storm from July 2006 was for the area as well. Over all, we have not had any high ice accumulation events and so in many ways the longer we go without one, the more damaging and impactful it will be on the area. The tree cant fall on the power lines twice in the same year if it fell last year  These are all good points. We will get more ice storms, some major. It may be this year or next year or 25 years from now but it will happen. There's really no such thing as a due factor with weather...but we are due  . And unfortunately the time between just makes them that much worse. I happened to be in some the areas that had 1.5-2.0" inches of ice accumulation in the Springfield MO 2007 storm and it was absolutely shocking the amount of tree damage I saw. This is why you'll NEVER catch me rooting for an ice storm. |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Jan 16, 2020 15:06:04 GMT -6
Now the rush to Schnucks or insert favorite grocery store begins for bread, milk, and eggs... Oh and butter. Went last night. You forgot fresh donuts! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2020 15:08:20 GMT -6
ICON really wants to hit the metro hard tomorrow with 6-9 hours of moderate to heavy freezing rain between 18 and 03Z before temps warm above freezing. Could be a good quarter to third inch of glaze before the turn over. ICON overall has been the juiciest model QPF wise then even the normally juiced up NAM at this range. Pretty much alone on this extreme solution unless we see a last minute flip tonight to a more south and more juiced up solution with the 0Z runs.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 16, 2020 15:09:55 GMT -6
Forget French toast, I’m making white chicken chili and cornbread lol. Gelato for dessert.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2020 15:09:59 GMT -6
Now the rush to Schnucks or insert favorite grocery store begins for bread, milk, and eggs... Oh and butter. Went last night. You forgot fresh donuts! Schnucks donuts get high praise, even better than the commissary's on Scott, AFB with west Belleville being one of the better store for donuts and fresh meat on the IL side of the river. At least that's what customers keep saying. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 16, 2020 15:11:03 GMT -6
Oh and for those that want to see what a truly epic ice storm looks like...just Google Slovenia 2014.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2020 15:12:21 GMT -6
Just wonder how many customers at the check stand will be trying to compare this storm to 2006... My shift tonight is gonna be interesting and likely very busy.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2020 15:15:35 GMT -6
Flood Watch hoisted up as well.
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. And unfortunately the time between just makes them that much worse.
