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Post by maddogchief on Feb 25, 2020 8:00:51 GMT -6
I don’t recall any model showing this morning as snow, at least any snow that would make any difference.
Starting to get accumulation on roads as well
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280
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Post by snowcat on Feb 25, 2020 8:04:26 GMT -6
It's been snowing here in Bowling Green since at least 6:30 this morning...huge, fat flakes coming down at a decent clip right now. It's beautiful, one of those snows that clings to every branch and gives a lacy appearance. Sticking to roads, too. I'm eyeballing a good inch or so already, I'd say. 33*
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 25, 2020 8:05:42 GMT -6
hi-res nam looks solid for 1-3" with meso banded areas up to 5"
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2020 8:05:54 GMT -6
I don’t recall any model showing this morning as snow, at least any snow that would make any difference. Starting to get accumulation on roads as well Models definitely showed some snow up your way this morning.
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Post by ElburnDave on Feb 25, 2020 8:15:29 GMT -6
In my 6 Winters here, this is by far the worst bust I've seen for my area. Now looking likely we'll see less than an inch from this storm.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2020 8:19:51 GMT -6
12z NAM supports the forecast Chris put out this morning very well...500mb vort max lines up with the heaviest band across central IL nicely.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 25, 2020 8:56:31 GMT -6
12z NAM supports the forecast Chris put out this morning very well...500mb vort max lines up with the heaviest band across central IL nicely. There appears to be support for a progressive...but narrow band of intense snowfall between 3am and 6am....lasting maybe 90 minutes...with lighter snow before and after. That burst will be responsible for the bulk of the accumulations in/around STL I think. My forecast of 1" or less for the STL area was based on a couple of assumptions (besides the track of the upper low/vort max) 1) Some of the snow will melt initially on contact...although time of day has the potential to offset that pretty quickly on grassy surfaces...although treated surfaces should stay wet INITIALLY. 2) The accumulating snow will come in a fairly short burst over 90 minutes or so. 3) Model 1:10 totals rarely under-perform...especially the NAM. So if it shows 2"... probably better to think closer to 1" 4) Models have consistently pulled systems too far south in the 24 to 36hr range...only to correct back north a county or two...although this is a somewhat different set-up than previous systems...so that correction may not be as important. I don't have the 12z NAM data in bufkit yet... but the cross-section of that band from the last run shows a short...but intense period of lift...centered just above the DGZ...the signal for potential CSI isn't supper strong...but does coexist with some elevated instability... which is an interesting signal. Graciously, once it turns to snow... precip type is not a question with the entire column well below freezing. If we get more efficient accumulation out the gate late this evening... then 1" to 2" is probably a better bet...but I'm happy with 1" or less for now.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 25, 2020 9:15:29 GMT -6
Flat out heavy snow again. I would almost call it violently snowing.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 25, 2020 9:20:23 GMT -6
Flat out heavy snow again. I would almost call it violently snowing. not for very long. back edge is just south of Springfield.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 25, 2020 9:21:40 GMT -6
This is referencing an editorial in cape girardeau's small town newspaper in the wake of the 24 inch blizzard. The weight of snow caused structures and awnings to collapse and the persistent high winds caused highway signs to blow over. There were several hours of thundersnow. It was a 90 mile wide of snow that dumped 10 inches on the fringes to 24 inches at cape and jackson. This editorial refers to the 3 years of the new ice age. The year before brought 15 inch snowfall and the year before that was a 10 inch blizzard. All 3 years, ice gorge formed on the MS River. Ppl wld get arrested walking across the river. The significance of all of this was that the avg annual snow at cape was abt 14 inches at that time. The forecast the night before was a revised forecast. Rain will change briefly to snow. Accums wld be 1 to 2 inches. That was the first forecast to mention snow. The forecast wld later be revised upward for 2 to 4 inches of snow. Finally during the course of the storm, NWS got word that things were out of hand. A blizzard warning was issued in the morning if the storm in progress. The area was already getting several hours of 3plus inches of snow per hour. The headline on the Feb. 27, 1979 issue of the Southeast Missourian was 3/4 inches tall and read: "New yardstick, blizzard of 1979." The entire front page was blizzard coverage. Say nothing more about the snow of 1917-1918 by John L. Blue Missourian Executive Editor Say nothing more about the snow of 1917-1918. Hereafter the yardstick will be the Great Blizzard of Feb. 25, 1979. Researchers and reporters, delving into the weather records hereafter will use this as their reference point -- and what a point it is. Never, at least in recorded city history, has there been anything like it. Cape Girardeau is paralyzed. Nothing moves but emergency vehicles and a few with four-wheel drives authorized by police. All others are subject to arrest. Grocery stores, doing a rush of walk-in business, are running out of bread, milk and other staples. Businesses are shut down. There are no burials -- the bodies are being held until the weather moderates. Everywhere there are snowdrifts, man-made or nature-made. The man-made ones are a canyon down the streets, allowing one-way traffic for police and other emergency vehicles. The nature-made ones are drifts six and eight feet high. Cars are buried. But what was it like when all of this came about? Listen, posterity, here's the way it has been this winter, and on the day of the great blizzard. It is the third year of the New Ice Age. Zero temperatures and below have been common each of these three winters. Snowfall is far above what it normally has been in the memory of anyone now alive. Last winter there was a 15-inch snowfall, but it was peanuts to what is outside right now. On Dec. 7-8, 1978, there was a four-inch sleetstorm, starting as freezing rain on the night of Dec. 7, turning to sleet on Dec. 8 and continuing through a good part of the day. A few scatterings of this sleet remained on the ground in deeply recessed areas when on New Year's morning, early, snow fell. That snow, augmented by others through January and February, stayed on the ground until it finally vanished (except for piles on parking lots) on Feb. 22, under 1.42 inches of rainfall with the temperature in the high 50s. The next day the temperature rose to 60 degrees. Rain amounted to 96 inches. Then the deluge. www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2168376699871933&set=pcb.808130732878967&type=3&theater&ifg=1
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2020 9:23:09 GMT -6
I'm going with 3" IMBY and 1.5" at KSTL. If we get over 3.5", this will be the biggest storm of the season up here.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 25, 2020 9:30:06 GMT -6
Next week looks moist.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 25, 2020 9:42:57 GMT -6
NWS disco already talking about possible hyrdo problems next week. I can't wait: Another period of active weather looks to begin early next week due to strong southwest flow aloft downstream of a slow-moving closed low in the desert southwest. Way too early to get into specifics 6- 7+ days out, but multiple rounds of rainfall are becoming increasingly likely. Given the already elevated mainstem river levels and abnormally moist soils, a very wet period if it pans out could cause hydrological problems.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 25, 2020 9:48:24 GMT -6
Yes the cpc has a hazard for just south of here for heavy rain. If history is any indication, based on other heavy rain events, this cld trend north.
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 25, 2020 10:02:44 GMT -6
Cool watch if you have 40 minutes on hand.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2020 11:02:19 GMT -6
The deformation zone tonight looks pretty anemic on the models. Maybe we can get some banding to help us out
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2020 11:11:54 GMT -6
The deformation zone tonight looks pretty anemic on the models. Maybe we can get some banding to help us out Every deformation zone this year has been anemic
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 25, 2020 11:19:53 GMT -6
this "drayzzle" sucks.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 25, 2020 11:24:35 GMT -6
Surprising to see an advisory for the metro
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 25, 2020 11:25:59 GMT -6
Surprising to see an advisory for the metro All about timing.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 25, 2020 11:27:06 GMT -6
Wwa
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 25, 2020 11:32:01 GMT -6
BRTN, If you pull this one off, I will be amazed even more at your Wx knowledge. You and FRIV see snow happen when no one else does. Fingers crossed it happens.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 25, 2020 11:35:22 GMT -6
Was surprised to see the wwa too but the forecast has not changed. As stated, its more abt the timing i guess. Guess its good to err on side of caution. I think as chris alluded, there seems to always be impact to rush given timing so this advisory is purely academic imo, since any ptype hinders rush in metro. Guess we will start discussing school closings this evening, again. Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2020 11:36:59 GMT -6
Could be some interesting times on the plains later today. Over 200J of CAPE
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 25, 2020 11:51:41 GMT -6
Surprising to see an advisory for the metro All about timing. They posted in chat that the advisory is not because of a change in forecast... but because of the timing...coming into the morning rush hour.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2020 11:53:08 GMT -6
Could be some interesting times on the plains later today. Over 200J of CAPE That's a crazy looking squall sounding! The front range had a wild squall yesterday.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 25, 2020 11:53:50 GMT -6
Here is my update based on the 12z data. Nothing huge. Nudged the 1-3 a few miles south...and went with "around 1 inch" for STL... and less than 1" elsewhere.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 25, 2020 12:19:12 GMT -6
Chris there’s nothing for Festus, except northern JeffCo! They wondering about temps and slick roads?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 25, 2020 12:57:15 GMT -6
Chris there’s nothing for Festus, except northern JeffCo! They wondering about temps and slick roads? I am not sure I understand the question
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 25, 2020 13:05:59 GMT -6
My guess: 1.3" of snow at Lambert tonight/tomorrow, and 2.8" of rain next week.
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