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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 28, 2020 12:22:54 GMT -6
UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
Areas of stratiform rain with isolated and imbedded, at times,
strong to severe convection is currently affecting our forecast
area under thick cloudy skies. Main area of concern continues to
be where clouds have cleared out in western MO and a surface cold
front is moving through where heating and a very moist and
moderately unstable atmosphere is taking shape, with surface
dewpoints in the low-mid 60s and temps surging through the 70s
where strong and deep lift is now moving in from the approach of
the upper system to the west. Expect severe convection to initate
within the next couple hours and translate through our region
mid-late afternoon and into the early evening. All severe threats
in play, including strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging
winds from storms moving very fast (excess of 40-50mph).
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 12:28:44 GMT -6
From the MESODISCO.
"Considerable storm coverage across southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois will likely lead to a messy storm mode and thus limit the
overall intensity of the storms. Nonetheless, stronger updrafts will
likely be present with a threat for all hazards including a couple
of tornadoes. A few discrete storms are also possible ahead of the
front which would pose a greater hail/tornado threat. Overall, any
tornadoes in this region will likely remain relatively short-lived
given the mostly long-straight hodographs and relatively veered
surface flow."
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 12:49:18 GMT -6
Have to look close, but the SPC delineated a region for enhanced potential for strong tornadoes with that MESO right up 44 into the metro.
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 28, 2020 13:12:02 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 13:14:18 GMT -6
Tornado watch issued in Arkansas
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 28, 2020 13:17:56 GMT -6
Light rain most of the afternoon here. Temp has dropped some. Just doesn’t feel stormy anymore. Gonna have to destabilize quick
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 28, 2020 13:28:15 GMT -6
LSX VWP currently measuring 388m2/s2 1km SRH.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 28, 2020 13:30:41 GMT -6
still waiting for the tornado watch they said would be issued by 2
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Post by toddatfarmington on Mar 28, 2020 13:33:00 GMT -6
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Post by RyanD on Mar 28, 2020 13:40:09 GMT -6
Indeed, I've been keeping a close eye on this one. Trying to not get too excited. We are overdue though for a bright comet though it'll also bring out the tinfoil hats yelling that the pandemic is related to the comet (harbinger of doom). |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 13:45:34 GMT -6
Tornado Watch issued north of us.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 28, 2020 13:46:18 GMT -6
Tornado Watch issued north of us. A PDS one at that |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 13:48:43 GMT -6
The MESO DISCO for our area expired.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 28, 2020 13:51:23 GMT -6
95% chance of a watch..that was to be issued by 2pm, lol.Oops
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 28, 2020 13:52:47 GMT -6
Tornado watch for SPI. Let’s see how this goes. I appreciate the sever weather updates.
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on Mar 28, 2020 13:55:36 GMT -6
95% chance of a watch..that was to be issued by 2pm, lol.Oops The SPC seems to "Oops" quite a bit.
And maybe it's just me, but I might've included in the Watch Box the area I had highlighted no more than 90 minutes earlier as having a heightened risk for "strong/long track tornadoes."
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 13:58:06 GMT -6
Chris has been very quiet today. I hope he is well.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 14:14:33 GMT -6
New update to the day 1 convective outlook adds to the enhanced area all the way to and including the boot heel. Moderate risk area remains unchanged.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Mar 28, 2020 14:18:04 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 14:18:21 GMT -6
Based on the wording the timing may have slowed a bit. Expecting evening into overnight hours now... for this side of the river anyway.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 28, 2020 14:21:05 GMT -6
late AM Clouds and rain probably did us in as someone else mentioned earlier. Locally the threat doesn't seem that high with action to remain north, south, and east of us for the reminder of the day. Can't completely rule out something but does seem like the atmosphere around the metro is more or less spent.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 28, 2020 14:23:37 GMT -6
Sun starting to break through
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 28, 2020 14:30:28 GMT -6
Well a wind advisory has been put out for tonight and tomorrow for the metro and points north. Gusts up to 45 mph at times.
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jipper
Weather Weenie
Wentzville
Posts: 12 
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Post by jipper on Mar 28, 2020 14:32:14 GMT -6
Sun starting to break through Definitely seeing a thinning of clouds and some breaks out here in Wentzville. |
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Post by Madaboutweather on Mar 28, 2020 14:38:43 GMT -6
Sun is out in Troy.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 28, 2020 14:39:17 GMT -6
where's my tor watch?  lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 14:41:50 GMT -6
Short range models develop a line of storms out near COU in the next hour or two...vis sat seems to confirm that with lines of CU developing. They also show lower CAPE values across SE MO and S IL so that may be why they held off on the watch for the metro.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 28, 2020 14:51:50 GMT -6
There’s the watch
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 14:52:17 GMT -6
There you go 99.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 28, 2020 14:58:46 GMT -6
meh, lol
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lol