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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 15:14:11 GMT -6
I see Reed targeted the DSM area to chase but it seems like those supercells are slightly elevated north of the warm front. The storm he's currently chasing near Colfax looks to be developing a hook though.
Edit: now TOR warned
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Mar 28, 2020 15:17:28 GMT -6
Tornado Watch issued north of us. A PDS one at that How do you know if/when it is a PDS? |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 15:21:24 GMT -6
How do you know if/when it is a PDS? It says it in the watch wording. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 15:23:25 GMT -6
Based on the wording the timing may have slowed a bit. Expecting evening into overnight hours now... for this side of the river anyway. It does seem to have slowed down... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 15:43:27 GMT -6
It seems like convection is having a hard time staying organized with sustained updrafts...thinking there may be just too much shear and not enough instability. Definitely a tough call on how this will play out.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Mar 28, 2020 15:44:08 GMT -6
How do you know if/when it is a PDS? It says it in the watch wording. I see "significant severe weather outbreak possible". Can you link me to the PDS? Please? |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 15:48:19 GMT -6
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Mar 28, 2020 16:05:23 GMT -6
Thank you!!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 28, 2020 16:05:30 GMT -6
Debris ball on that cell in Jonesboro AR
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 28, 2020 16:08:47 GMT -6
At what point do we loose our window of opportunity here.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 28, 2020 16:13:14 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 28, 2020 16:15:29 GMT -6
I'm thinking our shot west of the river is over....
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Post by perryville on Mar 28, 2020 16:15:32 GMT -6
Tornado south of Jonesboro, AR.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 28, 2020 16:18:33 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 16:19:49 GMT -6
At what point do we loose our window of opportunity here. Really not until the front sweeps through around 9pm or so. Models show the remaining convective inhibition is pretty much gone at this point, so if storms are going to fire they should within the next hour or so. There does appear to be a disturbance rippling NE through the Arklatex region currently which could help get things going here. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 16:23:53 GMT -6
That looks like a strong tornado...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 28, 2020 16:26:48 GMT -6
The debris ball the Jonesboro tornado kicked up was huge. I think some significant damage might of occurred
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 16:29:46 GMT -6
The debris ball the Jonesboro tornado kicked up was huge. I think some significant damage might of occurred Looked like it intensified quickly as it moved through town...not good. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 28, 2020 16:34:09 GMT -6
At what point do we loose our window of opportunity here. Really not until the front sweeps through around 9pm or so. Models show the remaining convective inhibition is pretty much gone at this point, so if storms are going to fire they should within the next hour or so. There does appear to be a disturbance rippling NE through the Arklatex region currently which could help get things going here. Dave mentioned on Facebook about an hr and a half ago that front was moving thru right now. So I assumed our chance was over. Where is the front currently? What website do u use to out current surface front data on? |
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 28, 2020 16:36:55 GMT -6
Front just past Kirksville and extends to just west of Rolla
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 28, 2020 16:44:12 GMT -6
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 28, 2020 16:45:06 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 16:45:28 GMT -6
Really not until the front sweeps through around 9pm or so. Models show the remaining convective inhibition is pretty much gone at this point, so if storms are going to fire they should within the next hour or so. There does appear to be a disturbance rippling NE through the Arklatex region currently which could help get things going here. Dave mentioned on Facebook about an hr and a half ago that front was moving thru right now. So I assumed our chance was over. Where is the front currently? What website do u use to out current surface front data on? I usually use the WPC surface analysis page but it's still showing the 18z charts. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 16:47:40 GMT -6
That's a fairly strong dryline by MO standards...you'd think that would kick up something. This is a weird storm...not well behaved or well forecast. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 28, 2020 17:07:14 GMT -6
The devastation in jonesboro is astounding.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 17:13:36 GMT -6
The devastation in jonesboro is astounding. I was afraid of that...it went from rope to wedge in a matter of seconds. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 28, 2020 17:15:12 GMT -6
NWS starting to shave the watch from the west. Still not seeing any development.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Mar 28, 2020 17:22:23 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 28, 2020 17:23:32 GMT -6
NWS starting to shave the watch from the west. Still not seeing any development. Yeah, it's starting to look like we might not see anything...this really did not go as advertised. |
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Post by perryville on Mar 28, 2020 17:26:10 GMT -6
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