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Post by STGOutdoors on May 22, 2020 6:19:28 GMT -6
Things have trended a bit drier over the next couple days if you believe the NAM. Next week has a lot of question marks at this point. Cutoff low, potential boundary from the north, potential tropical moisture/energy.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 22, 2020 6:26:38 GMT -6
Current radar over E KS and W MO is kind of a throwback to the May 2009 derecho, but thankfully conditions don't support anything like that happening with the lack of CAPE and upper air support.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 22, 2020 9:36:15 GMT -6
Things have trended a bit drier over the next couple days if you believe the NAM. Next week has a lot of question marks at this point. Cutoff low, potential boundary from the north, potential tropical moisture/energy. Convective trends over the next week are really muddy. Seems to be no real large scale forcing to focus anything. Just daily chances of storms |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 22, 2020 12:55:10 GMT -6
Something amazing has happened so far today.
I haven't seen any rain.
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Post by landscaper on May 22, 2020 12:59:53 GMT -6
That would be awesome if most of the rain would miss us through Monday, I’m so tired of the rain
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 22, 2020 13:15:22 GMT -6
Something amazing has happened so far today. I haven't seen any rain. Give it a little bit. Looks like we have some on the way. Light, but still rain. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 22, 2020 13:24:44 GMT -6
Today is the one year anniversary of the Jeff City tornado.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 22, 2020 13:30:32 GMT -6
Raining, you jinxed it snowman
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Post by Snowman99 on May 22, 2020 13:33:38 GMT -6
Lmao..and here comes a band of showers moving in from the southwest. Jesus.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 22, 2020 13:34:47 GMT -6
And it's pouring.
I give up.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 22, 2020 17:06:07 GMT -6
Love the mild land hurricane going to our south. Jeebus. Need it to push a little more east to get in on the thunderboomer action.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 22, 2020 18:10:09 GMT -6
Love the mild land hurricane going to our south. Jeebus. Need it to push a little more east to get in on the thunderboomer action. Was just looking at that. Pretty cool |
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Post by cozpregon on May 22, 2020 20:15:23 GMT -6
Think our best chance for scattered storms tomorrow will be late AM/early PM. CAPE up pretty quick in the morning. Some hail potential... DCAPEs are high but would think better chance for wind would be further east.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 23, 2020 8:58:01 GMT -6
10% tornado risk across northern Illinois today
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 23, 2020 9:18:09 GMT -6
Popcorn starting to pop.
Right along the stationary front across central IL.
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Post by bdgwx on May 23, 2020 12:10:54 GMT -6
Normally I think forecasts past 10 days are bunk but I have noticed there seems to be extended range skill on tropical disturbances near Latin America. The GFS and Euro (EPS control anyway) have a pocket of vorticity in that area though mainly on the Pacific side. The GFS really wants to cross over to the Atlantic side and crank it up. It has been showing this the last several runs. The last time I saw this kind of output from the models in June a tropical storm really did form. I'm interested in seeing what happens in this case. It's probably a false positive, but we'll see.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 23, 2020 14:19:28 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on May 23, 2020 14:22:27 GMT -6
Right turner about to plow through the south side of Chicago.
That thing might drop a tornado
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 23, 2020 14:28:42 GMT -6
Normally I think forecasts past 10 days are bunk but I have noticed there seems to be extended range skill on tropical disturbances near Latin America. The GFS and Euro (EPS control anyway) have a pocket of vorticity in that area though mainly on the Pacific side. The GFS really wants to cross over to the Atlantic side and crank it up. It has been showing this the last several runs. The last time I saw this kind of output from the models in June a tropical storm really did form. I'm interested in seeing what happens in this case. It's probably a false positive, but we'll see. Models did very well picking up on the tropical disturbance off the SE coast a couple weeks ago from at least 7-8 days out. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 23, 2020 14:30:37 GMT -6
I saw Reed shared that image last night stating it was a 14" hail stone that fell somewhere in Texas. No idea if its legit but that would easily be the world record |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 23, 2020 14:33:49 GMT -6
Right turner about to plow through the south side of Chicago. That thing might drop a tornado That cell might be outrunning the best environment as it gets closer to the lake |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 23, 2020 14:44:39 GMT -6
I saw Reed shared that image last night stating it was a 14" hail stone that fell somewhere in Texas. No idea if its legit but that would easily be the world record If accurate that would kill if it hit you on the head. Edited to add: Apparently the video has been pulled. Don't know if that was Timmer's choice or Facebook. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on May 23, 2020 14:53:42 GMT -6
Right turner about to plow through the south side of Chicago. That thing might drop a tornado That cell might be outrunning the best environment as it gets closer to the lake Good call. Since I’ve moved up by the lake it has only impeded extreme weather. Makes for a nice view and comfortable summers though |
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 23, 2020 20:42:18 GMT -6
Was fun watching that outflow move nw until they turned clear air mode on at lax.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 23, 2020 20:48:24 GMT -6
Was fun watching that outflow move nw until they turned clear air mode on at lax. I noticed that...I was surprised how far it made it. I expected a few storms to fire along it but it just couldn't get anything going. Nice change of pace from the week of rain and drizzle though...but it sure was hot and sticky out there today. Last I checked the dewpoint was 71*F...summer has arrived! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 24, 2020 9:06:44 GMT -6
Going to be a lot of CAPE out there today but very little shear
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 24, 2020 9:45:21 GMT -6
Going to be a lot of CAPE out there today but very little shear All kinds of outflow bounaries coming at us today. I imagine it will be more active this afternoon. |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 24, 2020 10:03:05 GMT -6
As long as I don't get bowling ball sized hail crashing thru the roof, it's all good.  |
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Post by unclesam6 on May 24, 2020 10:21:03 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on May 24, 2020 10:24:35 GMT -6
Stuff starting to fire just to your SW snowman
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