Chris's Corner - Fresh for April

Could definitely see some hailers down my way this evening.

Two big stories today will be temperatures... surging back into the 80s...and then the possibility of severe storms this evening. For highs... I boosted the forecast to 86. With a fast start and limited pre-frontal clouds that may not be warm enough. The only thing keeping me from going warmer is the rather weak low level flow out of the Ozarks. It is not a strong downslope wind... so I'm going to hold it at 86...but I would not be surprised if it gets a little warmer.

Severe weather....
I think SPC is too far west with the Enhanced along I-70. The initiation of storms may bring the early stages of severe into metro STL... but the "bigger" stuff will not come together until it passes just east of STL. I think Illinois and southeast Missouri have the greatest risk of seeing the large hail and damaging winds. There is a lot of CAPE aloft, a healthy elevated mixed layer (EML) and very steep mid-level lapse rates. In addition, low level lapse rates are quite impressive beneath the LCL...which will be running high thanks to deep mixing. Within this airmass will be favorable bulk shear of 40+ kts from the west/northwest. All of this points toward severe storm potential developing rapidly after 5pm in the frontal convergence zone. Initial storms may be discreet... but given the potential for strong downburst winds fueled by steep lapse rates and big Td depression in the sub cloud layer...I suspect we end up with a rapid evolution to QLCS over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri. The tornado threat may increase closer to the Ohio River with QLCS type tornado structures most likely.

Is it something you can dirt fill and route drainage under or is it just a natural valley for drainage?

Live "down in a hole" lol. Don't think dirt fill is gonna help. It's just been worse because of all the rin we've had the last couple of years.

Chris... I see a new shirt design here... related to severe weather this time. Thank you for the update!

Short range models aren’t mixing us out as much as they were last night. Some of the runs last night had LCLs up around 700mb

A little surprised to see the NWS hosting a conference call for today’s event

it's hot. Too hot

The next week will be cold. too cold.

Dewpoints have definitely mixed out a bit, especially across central IL...thinking that will limit the tornado threat overall, but increase the downburst wind potential. And the potential for very large(2"+) hail exists with discrete, rotating supercells given the very steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively low wetbulb zero. Definitely need to watch things closely this afternoon and evening...4-8pm or so from NW to SE. Storms look to fire just W/NW of the metro and quickly sweep E/SE.

Not much to report from NWS conference call, it was brief due to the ongoing stress on emergency services. Refer to the graphics on the web site. Fairly high confidence forecast, more discrete and large hail producers developing over northern MO/IL around 2-3 pm. Storms arrive in the metro area between 5-8 pm, should be congealing into more of a line by arrival or just south of the metro where the threat begins shifting to more of a damaging wind vs hail threat. Storms should clear the forecast area by 9-10 pm. Classified primary threat as hail followed by damaging winds, with secondary threat of a tornado or two possible.

Tip of the hat to BWG....this is a new thermo and I sit at 93* in the shade on front porch. The porch gets morning sun and the thermo is not accurate at that time, but It sure feels like 93* woring in the garden.

Edit: Now I will look at NWS temp readings.

Edit, Edit:No way it's only 83* in De Soto??

Yeah I see your weather station on underground's Wundermap. Your station is a sore thumb for sure. Most in the mid 80s with an upper 80 here and there. Still another hour or 2 till max temp though, so still could get to 88 to 90 before it's all said and done.

Weatherbug has me at 87*. Anyone close by (bororug) with an accurate temp reading?

Also don't think any thing has been said but if you do go outside in the sun today make sure to lather up the sunscreen, hats, and sunglasses as a 'Ozone Hole' is spinning through North America creating UV indexes closer to the Summer Solstice or even better. The hole was caused by the insanely strong PV that kept Winter away from us for the most part. It's starting to finally collapse now. Finally. Good Grief. The hole should close in a couple weeks and the stratosphere warms.