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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 8, 2020 12:54:12 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 8, 2020 12:57:29 GMT -6
Last time we had a 95% watch probably things didn’t go so well
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 8, 2020 13:00:15 GMT -6
There we go, 87* at Lambert as of 1:53PM, 86 at Cahokia, St. Louis downtown airport. Might still kiss 90, but 89/90 what's the difference between friends?  |
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on Apr 8, 2020 13:07:19 GMT -6
Question:
How is this going to ramp up with dewpoints in the 40s/50s?
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Post by bororug on Apr 8, 2020 13:15:39 GMT -6
Just checked our home thermometer. It shows 90 degrees just SW of Desoto.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 8, 2020 13:17:48 GMT -6
Hottest weather station in the metro goes to Arnold, MO where a home station reads 96*. Most inaccurate, maybe... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 8, 2020 13:18:21 GMT -6
Question: How is this going to ramp up with dewpoints in the 40s/50s? Very steep lapse rates/cold air aloft and strong surface heating. |
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 8, 2020 13:19:32 GMT -6
Question: How is this going to ramp up with dewpoints in the 40s/50s? Very steep lapse rates/cold air aloft and strong surface heating. Storms will be elevated... but yeah mid level lapse rates well over 8*C/KM will provide strong updrafts. |
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 8, 2020 13:23:22 GMT -6
Almost like front range type storms... high based, but big hail potential- and like JMG and BRTN mentioned earlier downburst potential.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 8, 2020 13:30:06 GMT -6
The peak nationally MIGHT be in a few days. But states will really have different peaks over the next month or so. I wouldn't be going to new mexico in late May. Things will need to reopen slowly and carefully and mot really starting til the first of June would be the smart move. Otherwise run the risk of winding up right back where we are now.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 8, 2020 13:35:24 GMT -6
Last time we had a 95% watch probably things didn’t go so well Yeah. Not a big fan of those probabilities. They really dont mean much. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 8, 2020 13:36:07 GMT -6
88* @ cou
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 8, 2020 13:38:26 GMT -6
88* in Arnold with a DP of 52*
We’ve definitely mixed out
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 8, 2020 13:40:14 GMT -6
Last time we had a 95% watch probably things didn’t go so well Yeah. Not a big fan of those probabilities. They really dont mean much. And watch probability has little to do with severe weather probability Ive learned. In this case, unlike theast time, we are pretty well cooking right now...I still think the most significan and widespread activity will end up in Illinois and just south of STL... BUT...AND THIS IS IMPORTANT... that does not preclude severe wind hail further west over and just west/northwest of STL. I just think the bigger stuff may end up a bit more east. A watch is coming and is justified. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 8, 2020 13:56:21 GMT -6
KFAM 87* with a DP of *60
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 8, 2020 14:02:54 GMT -6
The peak nationally MIGHT be in a few days. But states will really have different peaks over the next month or so. I wouldn't be going to new mexico in late May. Things will need to reopen slowly and carefully and mot really starting til the first of June would be the smart move. Otherwise run the risk of winding up right back where we are now. My trip is between 5/14 and 5/19 in Santa Fe/Albuquerque area. It's probably going to more 'dangerous' here around St. Louis than there, but I also know there will be some activity there as well. Overall I'm quite healthy and relatively young at 33, and while yes, people have died at this age or about it's very rare. Similar odds to catching and dying from flu. Just keep the neck gaiters, and masks handy and keep some distance from people. Wouldn't be surprised if I have to quarantine on the way back that might be the roughest part of the whole endeavor. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 8, 2020 14:09:02 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 8, 2020 14:11:23 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 8, 2020 14:11:59 GMT -6
The peak nationally MIGHT be in a few days. But states will really have different peaks over the next month or so. I wouldn't be going to new mexico in late May. Things will need to reopen slowly and carefully and mot really starting til the first of June would be the smart move. Otherwise run the risk of winding up right back where we are now. My trip is between 5/14 and 5/19 in Santa Fe/Albuquerque area. It's probably going to more 'dangerous' here around St. Louis than there, but I also know there will be some activity there as well. Overall I'm quite healthy and relatively young at 33, and while yes, people have died at this age or about it's very rare. Similar odds to catching and dying from flu. Just keep the neck gaiters, and masks handy and keep some distance from people. Wouldn't be surprised if I have to quarantine on the way back that might be the roughest part of the whole endeavor. And obviously you have learned nothing from the last 2 months. It's not about YOU. It's about others who are more susceptible to falling ill or dying. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 8, 2020 14:16:19 GMT -6
88 at 3 at Lambert. Record is 89
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 8, 2020 14:20:58 GMT -6
Storms developing in norther/northeastern MO. I'm also noticing some failed initiations in central MO as well (as seen on satellite with orphan anvils racing off to the east) so keep an eye in that area as well.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 8, 2020 14:26:08 GMT -6
Dewpoints are in the 45-50F range from Rolla to Washington with MU CAPE close to 2000 j/kg. Sneaky microburst potential with those conditions especially with any dying storms...downdraft CAPE is like 1500 j/kg in that area.
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 8, 2020 14:33:40 GMT -6
4" hail report with those supers in SE Iowa.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 8, 2020 14:42:13 GMT -6
Seeing some towering CU trying to build off to the west...
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 8, 2020 14:44:24 GMT -6
Seeing some towering CU trying to build off to the west... I was about to say that. I also noted that the haze is partially obscuring the view. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 8, 2020 14:45:03 GMT -6
I'm seeing a bunch of 90F readings showing up on the 5-minute METARs. The dewpoint depression is currently 42F!
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Post by birddog on Apr 8, 2020 14:49:53 GMT -6
I currently have 88.6° and DP 54
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 8, 2020 14:52:26 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 8, 2020 14:58:32 GMT -6
Some popups south now.
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 8, 2020 14:59:11 GMT -6
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