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Post by jmg378s on Jun 2, 2020 14:43:55 GMT -6
According to the SPC (via Twitter) some interesting stats about May 2020:
- First ever without a moderate or high risk outlook
- Fewest tornado watches
- Fewest recorded tornadoes in the modern era
- Fewest significant tornadoes ever
Interesting to note that top 5 fewest tornado watches in May are ALL in the last 8 years. Much of that is just better forecasting I'm sure (i.e. fewer busts), but that's not all of it. Severe reports and significant tornadoes have generally been down in recent years too.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 2, 2020 15:02:36 GMT -6
Latest Euro spaghetti  |
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 2, 2020 16:18:06 GMT -6
That's a lot of carbs for Missouri.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 2, 2020 17:05:37 GMT -6
According to the SPC (via Twitter) some interesting stats about May 2020: - First ever without a moderate or high risk outlook - Fewest tornado watches - Fewest recorded tornadoes in the modern era - Fewest significant tornadoes ever Interesting to note that top 5 fewest tornado watches in May are ALL in the last 8 years. Much of that is just better forecasting I'm sure (i.e. fewer busts), but that's not all of it. Severe reports and significant tornadoes have generally been down in recent years too. The last few years have had a lack of jet support. Lots more meandering cut off lows and disorganized systems in every season. The whole flow across the US has been sort of unorganized for a while, with some exceptions of course. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 2, 2020 17:09:07 GMT -6
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 2, 2020 17:13:01 GMT -6
Ya only a 1 and 730,000 chance of it erupting anytime soon. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 2, 2020 17:53:18 GMT -6
Ya only a 1 and 730,000 chance of it erupting anytime soon. Details... details... |
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 2, 2020 20:34:50 GMT -6
According to the SPC (via Twitter) some interesting stats about May 2020: - First ever without a moderate or high risk outlook - Fewest tornado watches - Fewest recorded tornadoes in the modern era - Fewest significant tornadoes ever Interesting to note that top 5 fewest tornado watches in May are ALL in the last 8 years. Much of that is just better forecasting I'm sure (i.e. fewer busts), but that's not all of it. Severe reports and significant tornadoes have generally been down in recent years too. The last few years have had a lack of jet support. Lots more meandering cut off lows and disorganized systems in every season. The whole flow across the US has been sort of unorganized for a while, with some exceptions of course. That definitely sums it up for this May and is probably a fair assessment over the last few years. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 2, 2020 20:40:48 GMT -6
Ya the severe weather season really sucked again this yr in Saint Louis. But truth be told we didn't need anymore problems. I just wanted some good lightning storms. Maybe we will get one tomorrow!?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 2, 2020 21:33:11 GMT -6
Large Sunspot about to rotate into view of Earth, about Uranus/Neptune sized. Capable of M class flares. Better look tomorrow afternoon as the full spot comes into view. Solar Minimum is ending.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 3, 2020 7:29:19 GMT -6
The setup for this afternoon and early evening certainly supports a wind threat from the MCS dropping S but there also appears to be a flash flood risk with training/backbuilding convection behind the composite outflow. I would imagine FFG is pretty high with the recent stretch of dry weather but PWATS approach or exceed 2" and storm motions will be pretty slow so there's potential for several inches of rain in a short time where training occurs.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 3, 2020 7:41:57 GMT -6
So dont water the trees I planted last weekend?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 3, 2020 7:49:31 GMT -6
So dont water the trees I planted last weekend? I'd wait until tomorrow for sure...doubt you'll need to. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 3, 2020 7:51:53 GMT -6
So dont water the trees I planted last weekend? I'd wait until tomorrow for sure...doubt you'll need to. I watered pretty extensively Monday, didnt water yesterday, planned to water a little today, but knew were potentially get some rain today. Thanks for the insight. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 3, 2020 8:09:09 GMT -6
Models are slowing down the arrival of the MCS today. Might be more of an overnight thing now
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 3, 2020 8:28:37 GMT -6
Models are slowing down the arrival of the MCS today. Might be more of an overnight thing now NAM looks like 5-6 am Hi Res NAM about 6 hours earlier |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 3, 2020 8:42:26 GMT -6
I wonder if those storms in northern Illinois might not already be the start of the MCS
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 3, 2020 8:54:14 GMT -6
Season's first 600DM ridge showing up on the CFS monthly for July 4-5th. Likely upper 90s near 100 degrees than. Obviously still long ways out and going to change about 60 times before we get there but still first one to show up on any model.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 3, 2020 8:56:03 GMT -6
As for late this evening/tonight it could go either way. I can we where we get pounded but I also see how we could get shafted, i.e the St. Louis split with storms west and east of us. The 50% pretty much tells the story of either possibility.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 3, 2020 9:33:10 GMT -6
HRRRv4 shows two MCS colliding in central MO tomorrow morning.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 3, 2020 10:21:14 GMT -6
Storm impacting Philly is moving at 90mph
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 3, 2020 10:34:53 GMT -6
Storm impacting Philly is moving at 90mph looks like a verified enhanced risk to me. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 3, 2020 10:37:29 GMT -6
zoom!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 3, 2020 10:50:49 GMT -6
wow
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jun 3, 2020 11:32:51 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 3, 2020 11:36:25 GMT -6
Models are slowing down the arrival of the MCS today. Might be more of an overnight thing now Looking at water vapor, the leading edge of the ascent is spreading across NW MO and there appears to be a weak disturbance approaching KC...I'd say storms will be here by 5-6pm like they were showing in previous runs. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 3, 2020 11:46:20 GMT -6
Friday night looks like the next MCS to watch. NAM is showing some extreme CAPE values  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 3, 2020 12:13:31 GMT -6
Models are slowing down the arrival of the MCS today. Might be more of an overnight thing now Looking at water vapor, the leading edge of the ascent is spreading across NW MO and there appears to be a weak disturbance approaching KC...I'd say storms will be here by 5-6pm like they were showing in previous runs. I agree. For starters, an often overlooked fact about mesoscale models is they take "spin-up" time the closer you get temporaly to an event. That is to say they are often slow at getting things started because they have trouble catching up to what is happening right now. Secondly, the models initialized misserably all morning long with existing precip. Thirdly, the composite outflow seems to be pretty far south compared to models. Just eyeballing the CU field on satellite would suggest a more rapid and farther south initiation. In other words... 4pm to 10pm remains prime time. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 3, 2020 12:28:34 GMT -6
Storms starting to fire across N MO and far W IL near KUIN...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 3, 2020 12:42:49 GMT -6
Looking at water vapor, the leading edge of the ascent is spreading across NW MO and there appears to be a weak disturbance approaching KC...I'd say storms will be here by 5-6pm like they were showing in previous runs. I agree. For starters, an often overlooked fact about mesoscale models is they take "spin-up" time the closer you get temporaly to an event. That is to say they are often slow at getting things started because they have trouble catching up to what is happening right now. Secondly, the models initialized misserably all morning long with existing precip. Thirdly, the composite outflow seems to be pretty far south compared to models. Just eyeballing the CU field on satellite would suggest a more rapid and farther south initiation. In other words... 4pm to 10pm remains prime time. In all honesty, I could have taken one look at the sky towards the NW around lunchtime and tell you the latest short-term models were wrong...it just has "the look" to it this afternoon. |
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