|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jun 6, 2020 7:47:04 GMT -6
Absolutely miserable outside. DP > 70 = UGH
|
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 6, 2020 7:52:48 GMT -6
I’m good with the hot but the humidity blows.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jun 6, 2020 8:50:59 GMT -6
GFS has a dryline moving into MO in the wake of Cristobal. NAM has some storms (likely severe) firing in this environment on the last couple of frames.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 6, 2020 9:14:06 GMT -6
If Cristobal passes to our west, like forecasted, then there may be some tornado threat in central and eastern MO. Not a whole of of instability but lots of shear and environmental vorticity to work with. NAM soundings Tuesday morning show >300 0-1km SRH. Wouldn’t take much to get a quick spin up |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 6, 2020 10:31:32 GMT -6
I was hoping the E/NE wind would knock down the humidity a bit, but the 75* Td says "no dice". Maybe tomorrow...
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Jun 6, 2020 11:27:39 GMT -6
I think a cooler, rainy day sounds good about now.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jun 6, 2020 11:49:45 GMT -6
Our chances for snow seem pretty low for a while.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jun 6, 2020 12:21:11 GMT -6
Our chances for snow seem pretty low for a while.  |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jun 6, 2020 13:05:47 GMT -6
Cristobal looks pathetic. Almost completely devoid of convection around the center. You can see right down to the water and all the little meso-swirls inside the center.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 6, 2020 13:14:39 GMT -6
Cristobal looks pathetic. Almost completely devoid of convection around the center. You can see right down to the water and all the little meso-swirls inside the center. Between dry air and shear it's gonna struggle to become organized...I wouldn't be surprised if it does deepen inland. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jun 6, 2020 13:29:12 GMT -6
Cristobal looks pathetic. Almost completely devoid of convection around the center. You can see right down to the water and all the little meso-swirls inside the center. Between dry air and shear it's gonna struggle to become organized...I wouldn't be surprised if it does deepen inland. Yeah, and UKMET is really aggressive with inland deepening mainly due to upper level divergence. Enters MO at 992mb and leaves at 983mb. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 6, 2020 14:57:06 GMT -6
Model guidance seems to take the remnant low of Christobal well west of St. Louis with most of the action along and west of the center. It's not inconceivable that areas along and especially east of I-55 including the immediate metro could see very little if any rainfall from the system. In fact it could stay quite sunny especially in Illinois side which could allow more mixing and stronger winds but little to no rain to show for it. Seems like a micro drought could be setting up in Southwestern Illinois. Models of course could shift back east again, but alot will deal with the timing of the system immediately behind Christobal. Does look like a dry sunny, but less humid and cooler pattern could be setting up for sometime afterwards which would be refreshing considering it's June.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 6, 2020 15:01:39 GMT -6
GFS has a dryline moving into MO in the wake of Cristobal. NAM has some storms (likely severe) firing in this environment on the last couple of frames. Check out the 18z NAM  |
|
|
|
Post by yypc on Jun 6, 2020 15:40:57 GMT -6
Easily the hottest day of the year so far
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 6, 2020 17:32:16 GMT -6
This... cannot be right!  !!!!!?!?!?!?  |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 6, 2020 18:42:21 GMT -6
Some wicked storms with several tornadoes this evening in FL. I always found it interesting how some tropical systems produce lots of these and others none. The mid range tropical storms can be prolific tornado producers. Looks like a pretty big one was on the ground near Orlando earlier.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 6, 2020 19:41:08 GMT -6
I can’t remember a moderate risk being added this late in the day before. SPC just added one in SD for the 8:21pm update
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Jun 6, 2020 20:06:06 GMT -6
I can’t remember a moderate risk being added this late in the day before. SPC just added one in SD for the 8:21pm update Seriously. What's the point of upping an outlook after a watch is issued??? |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jun 6, 2020 21:01:10 GMT -6
I can’t remember a moderate risk being added this late in the day before. SPC just added one in SD for the 8:21pm update Seriously. What's the point of upping an outlook after a watch is issued??? I've always wondered that too. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jun 7, 2020 5:39:58 GMT -6
Models are hinting at scattered storminess in the wake of Cristobal on Tuesday. GFS and Euro both have a quasi-dryline moving through Missouri. Neither have what I would call significant convection, but the Euro is a bit more aggressive. It has storms breaking out west of KC and moving into MO. It does show the possibility of initiation down the dryline later in the evening in central MO, but given the lack of QPF I'm thinking that is a low probability call at this point. The GFS is further east with the dryline and even less enthusiastic with initiation. I doubt much will come of this but it is something to keep an eye on for now.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jun 7, 2020 8:15:20 GMT -6
dews in stl have tumbled into the low-mid 50s
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jun 7, 2020 9:05:17 GMT -6
Interesting info from the NWS up there in Wisconsin.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 7, 2020 9:24:26 GMT -6
Interesting info from the NWS up there in Wisconsin. When I looked at the QPF map I thought it was fairly unusual to have the moisture from Christobal making a bee line towards western Ontario. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 7, 2020 9:55:48 GMT -6
Not a good scenario with Christabal riding up the MS valley...the river is running quite high already.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 7, 2020 10:07:12 GMT -6
Models are hinting at scattered storminess in the wake of Cristobal on Tuesday. GFS and Euro both have a quasi-dryline moving through Missouri. Neither have what I would call significant convection, but the Euro is a bit more aggressive. It has storms breaking out west of KC and moving into MO. It does show the possibility of initiation down the dryline later in the evening in central MO, but given the lack of QPF I'm thinking that is a low probability call at this point. The GFS is further east with the dryline and even less enthusiastic with initiation. I doubt much will come of this but it is something to keep an eye on for now. 3KM NAM is all over it... |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 7, 2020 10:09:24 GMT -6
Also love how the models have shifted east again with the track of the storm bringing St. Louis and the bi-state back to almost the heart of action.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jun 7, 2020 10:31:30 GMT -6
we aren't close to the 'heart of the action' For that, the low would have to move right over us, if not a bit to the east. Nothing shows that, all of them have it moving thru central, if not western MO.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 7, 2020 10:39:51 GMT -6
Models are hinting at scattered storminess in the wake of Cristobal on Tuesday. GFS and Euro both have a quasi-dryline moving through Missouri. Neither have what I would call significant convection, but the Euro is a bit more aggressive. It has storms breaking out west of KC and moving into MO. It does show the possibility of initiation down the dryline later in the evening in central MO, but given the lack of QPF I'm thinking that is a low probability call at this point. The GFS is further east with the dryline and even less enthusiastic with initiation. I doubt much will come of this but it is something to keep an eye on for now. One of the meteorologist over on American weather mentioned Tuesday is loaded with big severe weather day analogs. Cristobal complicates things quite a bit though |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jun 7, 2020 10:59:27 GMT -6
Yeah...this is an odd setup. The phasing between the shortwave and Cristobal is unique...at least for me.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jun 7, 2020 10:59:44 GMT -6
Models are hinting at scattered storminess in the wake of Cristobal on Tuesday. GFS and Euro both have a quasi-dryline moving through Missouri. Neither have what I would call significant convection, but the Euro is a bit more aggressive. It has storms breaking out west of KC and moving into MO. It does show the possibility of initiation down the dryline later in the evening in central MO, but given the lack of QPF I'm thinking that is a low probability call at this point. The GFS is further east with the dryline and even less enthusiastic with initiation. I doubt much will come of this but it is something to keep an eye on for now. 3KM NAM is all over it... Yes it is. |
|
!!!!!?!?!?!?
