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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 4, 2020 17:32:57 GMT -6
can anyone explain the strange nature of the MCS merge last night? I'm looking back at IR satellite and it almost seems like the retreating outflow in central Missouri is "fishing" for the leading edge of the northern MCS... It looks so weird. My guess is that the inflow along the leading edge of the eastward advancing boundary that's pulling in moisture from the convection to the east... but I don't know for sure. I've never seen anything like it. Yeah I'd never seen that before it was fascinating. Looking through mesoanalysis, satellite, and radar it looks to me like a few things may have been going on. First there was that untouched reservoir of uncapped or minimally capped SB/ML CAPE north of KC late into the night between the 2 MCSs. Then an arrangement of low levels winds up against a boundary combined with the leading edge of both outflows was producing a convergence zone in the same area. Add in some upwind/downwind & CAPE gradient affects of MCS propagation and we end up with the step-leader -like (or "fishing" as you describe) MCS merger. As bdg mentioned HRRRv4 through several runs actually did a good job hinting at that scenario. So if I were to break this down in layman's terms, I could say that the westerward propagating MCS was like a spark lighting a "fuse" or in this case the theta-e boundary? And the convergence of the two systems caused the "explosion" of the rest of the leftover instability? |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 4, 2020 20:51:33 GMT -6
Hopefully TDs don't get this high. The lapse rates on this sounding is ridiculous-  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 4, 2020 20:59:47 GMT -6
It looks like odds are increasing that we'll see precipitation from Cristobal's remnants. GEFS and EPS are hinting at 1-2" or so for the area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 4, 2020 21:05:10 GMT -6
Hopefully TDs don't get this high. The lapse rates on this sounding is ridiculous- NAM is printing out some notable Derecho parameter values tomorrow
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 4, 2020 21:08:45 GMT -6
DCAPE 1500+... even the HRRR is 1200+. Just need something to kick it off
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 4, 2020 23:25:35 GMT -6
Heat burst in OK tonight
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 5, 2020 1:53:55 GMT -6
Here comes another MCS...
It has formed on the nose of the theta-e ridge which appears to be translating to the east along with the MCS...enriched by an 850mb LLJ.
The MUCAPE ridges into the same area as the theta-e... but does bleed further east. The orientation of the CAPE and theta-e gradients suggest the storms may turn a little more to the southeast than what we see at 250am. However, the orientation of the 850mb jet also seems to promote some eastward development as well. Because this MCS has a well organized cold pool now... I see no reason it will not continue on its merry way...with perhaps a slight bend more to the south than it is currently on. I expect our western and southwestern counties will be impacted by this MCS by 7am... and the metro area will get grazed with what's left between 8am and 10am.
Seeing as none of the global models have a clue to the existence of this MCS... it calls into question their soupy hot temperatures today. I was going 89....and that may still work considering the air is likely to get worked over for a while this morning and it will take some time to recover and clear out (like yesterday...but not as long) I may nudge it up a hair to 90. But I haven't decided yet.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 5, 2020 6:36:21 GMT -6
If it was a few hours later we would probably have some restrengthening of that line or some action from the outflow. Though that does seem to be happening across NEMO and SEIA.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jun 5, 2020 7:12:55 GMT -6
Leading edge of storm coming through eureka  |
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Post by amstilost on Jun 5, 2020 7:30:38 GMT -6
40mph guests with gust front just came through 7 miles west of de soto.
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Post by REB on Jun 5, 2020 7:57:16 GMT -6
Should I water or wait?
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jun 5, 2020 8:06:50 GMT -6
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jun 5, 2020 8:07:46 GMT -6
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jun 5, 2020 8:08:27 GMT -6
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jun 5, 2020 8:11:37 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 5, 2020 8:15:15 GMT -6
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 5, 2020 8:21:36 GMT -6
Hoping this is the last bit of rain this morning. Have a birthday party at my house outside tomorrow and need to mow this evening or in the morning.
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Post by REB on Jun 5, 2020 8:32:11 GMT -6
Thanks Chris!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 5, 2020 9:26:45 GMT -6
I have to take care of my peeps! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 5, 2020 10:17:51 GMT -6
There should be no shortage of rain with the remnants of Cristobal early week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 5, 2020 10:26:54 GMT -6
There should be no shortage of rain with the remnants of Cristobal early week. Might have to watch for low topped supercells Tuesday morning as Cristóbals remnants approach. Soundings show ample low level shear and SRH |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 5, 2020 10:30:09 GMT -6
Anybody want to go to South Dakota tomorrow. WOW  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 5, 2020 11:00:25 GMT -6
Anybody want to go to South Dakota tomorrow. WOW Woah... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 5, 2020 11:08:55 GMT -6
Anybody want to go to South Dakota tomorrow. WOW Woah.. Almost no 3km cape and storm mode looks to be linear but that hodograph is wicked |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 5, 2020 11:26:05 GMT -6
Almost no 3km cape and storm mode looks to be linear but that hodograph is wicked Very steep mid-level lapse rates as well... |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 5, 2020 13:33:26 GMT -6
Models are showing a pretty decent NW flow after the remnants of Cristobal zoom north and merge with a large upper level low over the lakes and eastern Canada. That would be a nice surprise.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 5, 2020 13:33:36 GMT -6
Models are showing a pretty decent NW flow after the remnants of Cristobal zoom north and merge with a large upper level low over the lakes and eastern Canada. That would be a nice surprise.
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 5, 2020 17:10:37 GMT -6
Does that line of storms that were in the boot heel heading directly south act like a derecho, or would they have to be stronger and started earlier?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 6, 2020 5:11:51 GMT -6
Last night the models brought the heaviest rain with Cristobal out in central MO, with less amounts for eastern MO. See what happens with the next couple of day's runs. Someone will likely see a quick 4+inches.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 6, 2020 7:38:45 GMT -6
If Cristobal passes to our west, like forecasted, then there may be some tornado threat in central and eastern MO. Not a whole of of instability but lots of shear and environmental vorticity to work with.
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