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Post by Tilawn on Jun 9, 2020 9:03:47 GMT -6
Not real sure why everyone is so surprised at the lack of rain. The trend has been quite clear the last few days showing less and less rain around here, with some indications that we would get quite small amounts. You would expect a bit more than spotty showers and drizzle with the low center passing directly overhead...but models did quite well showing the heavy rain axis left of the track. My concern was always the amount of water falling across the upstream MO and MS watersheds with rivers already running high. Agreed.....wasn’t expecting “inches” of rain just figured it would’ve been more then what was showing with such a large tropical system coming directly over us. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 9, 2020 9:04:41 GMT -6
It's been feeling very tropical since last night. When the sun comes out it's gonna be gross.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2020 9:07:55 GMT -6
Short range models are honing in on a E-W line of storms firing this afternoon
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 9, 2020 9:44:24 GMT -6
Short range models are honing in on a E-W line of storms firing this afternoon From where, to where? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 9, 2020 9:49:55 GMT -6
Short range models are honing in on a E-W line of storms firing this afternoon From where, to where? Our in house model is showing what looks like a string of mini super cells developing around 4:00 p.m. near the Missouri river from Jefferson City through Saint Louis county. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 9, 2020 10:29:14 GMT -6
HRRR has since lost that line.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 9, 2020 10:33:43 GMT -6
But NAM3K has it.
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Post by scmhack on Jun 9, 2020 10:54:43 GMT -6
Clouds break at 2 based off trends along that line, 2 hours of hot june sun and tropical swamp, sounds like storms to me |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2020 11:17:47 GMT -6
Sure does...brings rotating supercells right through the metro between 4-7pm.  |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jun 9, 2020 11:18:01 GMT -6
So just one question is what we are getting now in the area a Tropical Depression?
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 9, 2020 11:34:19 GMT -6
Sunny clear skies here. and breezy.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 9, 2020 11:41:40 GMT -6
So just one question is what we are getting now in the area a Tropical Depression? The clouds, rain and wind this AM were from TD Cristobal. This afternoon (if it happens) is a mix of TD and remnant surface boundary. Very much a hybrid. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 9, 2020 11:44:14 GMT -6
Sunny clear skies here. and breezy. Sunshine about to go full blast here as well. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 9, 2020 11:59:23 GMT -6
Sunny clear skies here. and breezy. Sunshine about to go full blast here as well. Here too |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 9, 2020 12:22:09 GMT -6
I have sunshine, too.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 9, 2020 13:16:34 GMT -6
Anyone notice on radar scope the radar area is bigger today? Was that an update?
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Jun 9, 2020 13:20:43 GMT -6
Do you mean larger than 124 nm range or something else?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2020 13:23:22 GMT -6
Anyone notice on radar scope the radar area is bigger today? Was that an update? Noticed that to. Wonder if it was intended or a bug |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jun 9, 2020 13:29:08 GMT -6
Anyone notice on radar scope the radar area is bigger today? Was that an update? Noticed that to. Wonder if it was intended or a bug I believe it’s intended. It’s been happening a lot lately. Especially after the latest update IIRC. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2020 13:33:24 GMT -6
Pretty strong differential heating zone setting up near 70 across central MO...looks like that is what CAMs were picking up on and sure enough there is a band of agitated CU developing.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 9, 2020 13:34:01 GMT -6
Anyone notice on radar scope the radar area is bigger today? Was that an update? They expanded super res to match regular base reflectivity according to fb |
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 9, 2020 13:40:01 GMT -6
Of course I called the day off because I really thought redevelopment would have started by now.......and nothing so far. If I would’ve went out it would have already been pouring 🤣
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 9, 2020 13:41:03 GMT -6
Pretty strong differential heating zone setting up near 70 across central MO...looks like that is what CAMs were picking up on and sure enough there is a band of agitated CU developing. Agitated CU is the key right now. We need it to stay agitated and bust through the subsidence. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 9, 2020 13:52:15 GMT -6
Can see that subsidence directly behind the TD... with the CU developing in the increasing CAPE further south  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2020 13:52:23 GMT -6
Hi res NAM still showing supercells in the metro this afternoon. It’s in a camp by itself right now
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2020 13:53:33 GMT -6
Pretty strong differential heating zone setting up near 70 across central MO...looks like that is what CAMs were picking up on and sure enough there is a band of agitated CU developing. Agitated CU is the key right now. We need it to stay agitated and bust through the subsidence. Agreed...if they can break through it could get nasty quick...especially if surface winds can back a bit ahead of the approaching SLP. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 9, 2020 14:15:17 GMT -6
Couple of faint echos near Osage Beach. That’s where the hi res NAM had initiation
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 9, 2020 14:46:09 GMT -6
Continuing to see on vis satellite some of that clumping and clustering of the CU in mid-MO that sometimes precedes CI. Will the cap break, I dunno. This is why I like weather and forecasting with all the mixed signals from modeling and things balanced on a pin edge where it can go either way.
Not suggesting this is something we really need to worry about, but the violent tornado parameter is actually pretty high right now south of the outflow boundary / I-70.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2020 14:54:44 GMT -6
Continuing to see on vis satellite some of that clumping and clustering of the CU in mid-MO that sometimes precedes CI. Will the cap break, I dunno. This is why I like weather and forecasting with all the mixed signals from modeling and things balanced on a pin edge where it can go either way. Not suggesting this is something we really need to worry about, but the violent tornado parameter is actually pretty high right now south of the outflow boundary / I-70. The kinematics definitely seem to be prime...you can see the wind shear and vorticity looking up through the cloud layers. Great day for sky watching! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 9, 2020 15:06:45 GMT -6
I would like to see some more umf to the CU... not quite as agitated as I want at this stage of the game.
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