|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2020 23:07:26 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Oct 21, 2020 23:11:07 GMT -6
insane.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 21, 2020 23:14:34 GMT -6
Looks like I'll be riding the rain/sleet/snow line at the Ozarks. It really might be a miserable week for camping...
|
|
weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
|
Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Oct 22, 2020 0:00:19 GMT -6
Worse case scenario ongoing right now in Grand Lake with the East Troublesome Fire. Listening to scanner seems like the fire has reached the northern part of town. I’m afraid tomorrow morning will be total devastation for a lot of people. Also keep in mind a lot of the trees in that area were dead due to the beetle kill and prime for fire fuels. Here’s a couple pictures I took today and this evening of the smoke plume from Denver area.  |
|
weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
|
Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Oct 22, 2020 0:01:06 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Oct 22, 2020 3:32:01 GMT -6
Always put on all your plows and salters and test everything out before October 30th The golden rule in snow removal. If you wait till there’s a chance for snow and you have a mechanical problem everyone else in town is trying to get there stuff fixed as well. Did this 2 weeks ago already |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Oct 22, 2020 5:08:58 GMT -6
Hot and muggy today, gross. Very real possibility Lambert still doesn't get to 32 next week even with all the cold air floating around.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Oct 22, 2020 5:24:01 GMT -6
It wont snow in stl. This pattern does not support in my opinion for any closer than kc to kirksville
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Oct 22, 2020 6:47:18 GMT -6
I agree we will most likely be on the warmer side with rain and 30’s-40’s .I think KC will see there first flakes of the year . After a few colder days it looks like we flip to normal or even above normal in November
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 22, 2020 7:18:21 GMT -6
CFS shows a flame thrower for November now.
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Oct 22, 2020 8:46:36 GMT -6
Following the fire near Grand Lake and Granby! Unreal! We spent lots of time up there when my husband and I were dating and after we married in the mid to late 1980s! So sad! Beautiful area!
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 22, 2020 8:50:56 GMT -6
CFS shows a flame thrower for November now. I have no issue with this. Cold snowy Novembers do not yield cold snowy Dec-Feb. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Oct 22, 2020 9:42:57 GMT -6
wow. snow on the ground with an orange glow in the sky from wildfire smoke.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Oct 22, 2020 10:25:20 GMT -6
I hate to add to the negative fire here,
But the track of the storm being portrayed on the 12z GFS early next week isn't a good producer at all IMO for snow for us. If there's a cycling pattern (which I believe there's, I don't know what your think), lets hope there's more cold air available in Dec when this storm cycles back through or otherwise we will be singing in the rain just before Christmas. I know that's bold prediction since cycle 1 isn't over yet and we don't even know the cycling pattern length of cycle 1 yet.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 22, 2020 10:33:39 GMT -6
Looks like we'll be waiting on those first flakes for quite a bit longer. GFS looking quite a bit warmer too. Also this early leaf drop isn't too promising either. I have speculation that nature's going screw it, there is no winter this year, so just cycle up the leaves and get ready to bud again. Chances of a 2011-2012 Winter or 2016-17 are looking very good which is to say we get nothing much colder than hoodie weather basically and then warp to Summer again, which will likely be a beast coming up. At least its looking wetter overall going forward, so the drought will be at least temporarily busted. For now anyway. Also the overall lack of other signs from nature I.E geese, bird migrations, and still tons of bugs doesn't help our odds one bit.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 22, 2020 10:34:16 GMT -6
wow. snow on the ground with an orange glow in the sky from wildfire smoke. Only in 2020... |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Oct 22, 2020 10:36:58 GMT -6
Looks like we'll be waiting on those first flakes for quite a bit longer. GFS looking quite a bit warmer too. Also this early leaf drop isn't too promising either. I have speculation that nature's going screw it, there is no winter this year, so just cycle up the leaves and get ready to bud again. Chances of a 2011-2012 Winter or 2016-17 are looking very good which is to say we get nothing much colder than hoodie weather basically and then warp to Summer again, which will likely be a beast coming up. At least its looking wetter overall going forward, so the drought will be at least temporarily busted. For now anyway. Also the overall lack of other signs from nature I.E geese, bird migrations, and still tons of bugs doesn't help our odds one bit. You do provide useful insight on here and it's appreciated. But, we are holding you to all these crazy, hip thinking predictions. On Sat or next week, etc., please don't say odds are in favor that this upcoming winter will be extremely cold/snowy. I can't take these rollar coaster thoughts anymore. It's too much. There are a lot of super knowledgeable people on this board who can see through this fake hype. Also, some people wear only hoodies when it's below 0* air temp. Some hoodie weather can mean it's plenty cold outside! 🤣 |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 22, 2020 10:37:59 GMT -6
ICON on the other hand is amusing to say the least showing a wound up system with heavy snow on the back side on Day 5-7 period. It's a loner at this point though.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 22, 2020 10:44:35 GMT -6
Only took until October 22nd for someone to cancel winter
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 22, 2020 10:46:41 GMT -6
Looks like we'll be waiting on those first flakes for quite a bit longer. GFS looking quite a bit warmer too. Also this early leaf drop isn't too promising either. I have speculation that nature's going screw it, there is no winter this year, so just cycle up the leaves and get ready to bud again. Chances of a 2011-2012 Winter or 2016-17 are looking very good which is to say we get nothing much colder than hoodie weather basically and then warp to Summer again, which will likely be a beast coming up. At least its looking wetter overall going forward, so the drought will be at least temporarily busted. For now anyway. Also the overall lack of other signs from nature I.E geese, bird migrations, and still tons of bugs doesn't help our odds one bit. We are holding you to all these predictions. On Sat, please don't say odds are in favor that this upcoming winter will be extremely cold/snowy. Also some people wear only hoodies when it's below 0* air temp. 🤣 That's the thing. What we're seeing evolve isn't predictable nor guaranteed. We're moving into a totally new global pattern that models will struggle with for some time, but adding the 2020 factor it will probably be one extreme or the other. After all this year has been a crash course on climate change, so either solution wouldn't surprise me at this point. Perhaps the word of the wise is... Don't get your hopes up either way at least until it's a day or 2 at the most before timing a system, or what will fall if anything from it. Also I just don't like where things are heading. Could I be completely wrong? Absolutely, but I could also be right. I'm not losing sleep over it either way as I'm not getting paid for producing an accurate forecast. Just putting thoughts down and seeing how things evolve and adjust accordingly. Not the best way to do things I'm sure but I don't have years of college or university experience either so I' left flipping more than the models do sometimes. So as most do around here take my thoughts for a grain of salt, or more like a salt mine. If no one has figured it out by now my 'forecasting' is more like throwing everything on the wall and seeing what if anything sticks than adapt accordingly. And yes, people from cold environments tend to dress up less than those in warmer climates as they are more used to it. My 'expression' is for the general overall population as a whole. |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Oct 22, 2020 10:59:26 GMT -6
Only took until October 22nd for someone to cancel winter I had BWG at 2:1 odds on the MTW Vegas lines- but I had it for next week. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 22, 2020 11:13:44 GMT -6
Only took until October 22nd for someone to cancel winter I had BWG at 2:1 odds on the MTW Vegas lines- but I had it for next week. Damn the luck... |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 22, 2020 11:20:32 GMT -6
  The fog made it to Chicago |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 22, 2020 11:40:54 GMT -6
The fog made it to Chicago Wow! |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Oct 22, 2020 11:41:54 GMT -6
So to say that Arctic sea ice is low is an understatement to end all understatements. It is extremely low...record smashingly low in fact. Sea ice acts as an insulator suppressing radiation, conduction, and convection of ocean heat. Less ice means more oceanic heat gets released into the atmosphere during the winter. The CFS is picking up on this nicely especially on the Siberian side where the ice still hasn't started to form yet and where temperature anomalies forecasted to remain significantly positive. There is a hypothesis that warmer Arctic conditions push the cold air down the latitudes. This is often called WACCy (Warm Arctic Cold Continent) and may be related to the hypothesized quasi resonant amplification of planetary waves. The CFS does show the cold air being pushed down...this time primarily into Canada. Typically the WACCy effect is confined to areas well north of St. Louis, but if the CFS is right (I have my suspicions) and if we can get some well timed troughs to connect it all together we may be in business this winter. However, I'm afraid long term average snowfall will continue to decline in St. Louis in the coming decades but that doesn't mean we can't still have good (even really good) years mixed in. Here's to hoping this will be one of those good years!
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Oct 22, 2020 11:42:56 GMT -6
This site is hilarious at times! Mid October and we’re canceling winter already LOL most trees haven’t even dropped there leaves yet much less began the rebudding process. It always warms up in November in St. Louis
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 22, 2020 12:16:21 GMT -6
This site is hilarious at times! Mid October and we’re canceling winter already LOL most trees haven’t even dropped there leaves yet much less began the rebudding process. It always warms up in November in St. Louis Par for the course...some things never change, lol! The CFS being wildly inaccurate, for example. |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Oct 22, 2020 12:32:45 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Oct 22, 2020 12:41:40 GMT -6
Arguably the greatest job in the history of mankind. |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Oct 22, 2020 13:04:21 GMT -6
We will smash the record. 85 at lambert records 86. Thinking we will hit 87 to 89
|
|
