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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 27, 2020 7:22:13 GMT -6
Yesterday the roofing supply showed up with my shingles. It was pouring rain so i did not permit them to stack shingles on my roof. They stacked on ground. Today the roofing crew showed up to replace my roof. Umm...no...nobody getting on my roof...rained overnight and roof still wet. Maybe the temp gets warm enough this afternoon for the adhesive to bond but my big concern is safety. Yes the company had all kinds of paperwork, but i dont take chances. Said theyd be back tomorrow. IMO, tomorrow is out. Thinking friday or next week is really preferable. Im really risk adverse and while the company has the liability, i am not "going there".
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 27, 2020 7:54:48 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen updated his blog yesterday. Unfortunately, it looks like October Eurasian snow cover extent will be pretty low this year. This is one measure he uses to assess the relative strength of the Polar Vortex and the likelihood that it becomes disrupted.
On the other hand, the Euro shows some optimism for Ural/Scandinavian blocking developing which could result in a weakened PV down the road.
Long way to go, but as always, his blog is a must read in the winter.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 27, 2020 8:22:18 GMT -6
Long way to go is not necessarily bad for us, even if we have to wait until january. I saw alot of concern abt a strong pv, and i guess indeed it is verifying...but cldnt the pv weaken into the winter months? If things fall into place less gradually, then im thinking more conducive to stormier conditions which is something this forum thrives on. Just going to depend on that storm track, and this fall has been encouraging abt that.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 27, 2020 8:45:39 GMT -6
looks like quite a bit of ZR fell last night. At least 0.1" an inch. Roofs across the area have that ZR on top of snow glimmer to them.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 27, 2020 8:59:17 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen updated his blog yesterday. Unfortunately, it looks like October Eurasian snow cover extent will be pretty low this year. This is one measure he uses to assess the relative strength of the Polar Vortex and the likelihood that it becomes disrupted. On the other hand, the Euro shows some optimism for Ural/Scandinavian blocking developing which could result in a weakened PV down the road. Long way to go, but as always, his blog is a must read in the winter. Definitely some mixed signals for the upcoming winter. The SST pattern definitely supports high-latitude blocking...but the lack of Eurasian/Siberian snowcover advance this month, as well as the easterly QBO support a stronger PV. The key for us, IMO is the persistent and significant western drought and la nina, which strongly supports a -EPO regime. And I've always liked using October as a signal for the upcoming winter pattern, as long as there isn't any major shifts in the large-scale hemispheric circulation patterns. You have to love how this month has trended if you are into winter weather... |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 27, 2020 9:11:18 GMT -6
I have a niece that lives in Guthrie OK and she says its bad down there. West OKC is getting hammered right now with sleet and ZR.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 27, 2020 9:23:37 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen updated his blog yesterday. Unfortunately, it looks like October Eurasian snow cover extent will be pretty low this year. This is one measure he uses to assess the relative strength of the Polar Vortex and the likelihood that it becomes disrupted. On the other hand, the Euro shows some optimism for Ural/Scandinavian blocking developing which could result in a weakened PV down the road. Long way to go, but as always, his blog is a must read in the winter. Definitely some mixed signals for the upcoming winter. The SST pattern definitely supports high-latitude blocking...but the lack of Eurasian/Siberian snowcover advance this month, as well as the easterly QBO support a stronger PV. The key for us, IMO is the persistent and significant western drought and la nina, which strongly supports a -EPO regime. And I've always liked using October as a signal for the upcoming winter pattern, as long as there isn't any major shifts in the large-scale hemispheric circulation patterns. You have to love how this month has trended if you are into winter weather... Seems like the east coast has the best chances for a winter bust potential with the area between the Rockies and Appalachians a crap shoot and could go either way or have episodes of cold and ice and snow followed by rapid and stout warm-ups. The Northeast is a coin toss and could either have a stellar season or a crappy one. Southeast coast and the west coast into the interior Rockies look to have the shortest ends of the stick. Strong PV isn't good but you can have cold shots and snow despite it but it certainly doesn't help. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 27, 2020 10:36:16 GMT -6
Potentially very strong Typhoon modeled by the GFS to re-curve off Taiwan and Japan around the 10-13th of November could signal another very significant early season arctic blast/cool down around or just before Thanksgiving due to 7-10 day lag period GFS shows the cold shot coming at the same time but that might be related to an Alaskan low around Election Day.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 27, 2020 11:50:52 GMT -6
I asked a couple weeks back but it got lost in the shuffle - where can I get daily updated teleconnection forecasts? The site I used to use (https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html) says it is no longer available.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 27, 2020 12:05:35 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 27, 2020 12:30:01 GMT -6
Report of near 1” of ice in El Reno, Ok
Yikes
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 27, 2020 12:45:25 GMT -6
Wichita also got some pretty significant ice overnight. I won't post them but if you search "Wichita ice storm" and "Oklahoma City ice storm" there's plenty of tree damage and many vehicle accidents
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Oct 27, 2020 13:19:03 GMT -6
I forgot How much I miss working in 38° rain……
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 27, 2020 17:55:27 GMT -6
It's been a pretty miserable trip at the Ozarks for us. I mean we've been in the cabin this whole time so far which isn't terrible. But no trail walking, no campfire or even kids being able to play outside much.
We did manage to go into town and we did drive to Camdenton, Mo to visit Ha Ha Tonka state park and see the castle/Mansion ruins. Which My wife and I haven't seen in yrs. It's still raining here but really suppose to pick up tomorrow afternoon and into the evening.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 27, 2020 21:10:12 GMT -6
Looks like areas north of I-70 won't be seeing much action from Tomorrow Night/Thursdays portion. In fact even the metro seems on the edge at this time per the NAM.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 27, 2020 22:56:43 GMT -6
12z/00z gfs both showing overrunning precip/building arctic cold around the 10th.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 28, 2020 4:58:03 GMT -6
Zeta forecast to be 100mph at landfall now
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 28, 2020 5:08:58 GMT -6
Zeta forecast to be 100mph at landfall now Louisiana just can't catch a break...terrible. |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Oct 28, 2020 7:01:21 GMT -6
Heading to Biloxi Mississippi to pick up shrimp for my store. Sure did pick a good weekend to have my seafood sale 🤦
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 28, 2020 10:07:06 GMT -6
Heading to Biloxi Mississippi to pick up shrimp for my store. Sure did pick a good weekend to have my seafood sale 🤦 Going to be a rough one for them. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 28, 2020 10:07:40 GMT -6
Quick cold shot Sunday should produce an area wide freeze
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 28, 2020 12:14:53 GMT -6
Zeta made it to 100mph as of 1pm
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 28, 2020 12:27:07 GMT -6
Zeta made it to 100mph as of 1pm Good thing it's running out of water...eyewall looks healthy as ever right now and strengthening. |
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Oct 28, 2020 12:45:30 GMT -6
Starting Sunday models will come out an hour earlier probably the only good thing that comes with the time change. Lol
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 28, 2020 13:00:52 GMT -6
With the number of tropical cyclones being shown on the GFS the next 2 weeks in the Atlantic, I wouldn't be surprised for us to get to Mu or even as much as Xi in the Greek Alphabet before it's all said and done. A record breaking year for sure at least for the number of tropival cyclones.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 28, 2020 13:04:45 GMT -6
Looks like the 2nd week of November as early as the 8th or so is when it looks like we'll see any sensible weather i.e precipitation. At least it won't be a month or over like last time. The potential warm-up next week is looking stout and we could see 80s again for a day or 2 ahead of one of the southwestern storms possible to come about that time.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 28, 2020 13:07:44 GMT -6
At least this boring stretch next week seems to have some limited staying power. All globals pointing to a quick return of big time upper-level amplification around D10.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 28, 2020 13:32:47 GMT -6
105
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 28, 2020 13:39:57 GMT -6
I know I haven't been very active in here lately. Very hard to find the time on this shift these days. To all of your credit... you keep it going! We have some great minds in this group!
As for Zeta... I am very concerned that many folks will be caught by suprise by the impacts from this down south. The angle of approach and fact that it is intensifying still is very concerning.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 28, 2020 14:06:11 GMT -6
110 lol
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