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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 28, 2020 14:09:01 GMT -6
Been digging a bit into reanalysis and I've decided that 1995/1996 is the best analog for the upcoming winter...weak spring/summer nino, transitioning into a weak/moderate nina by fall, with plenty of blocking.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 28, 2020 14:14:08 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 28, 2020 15:39:07 GMT -6
Soaker on our doorstep it seems. Looking like rt around dark for arrival imby. This also looks like an overperformer up and along 70 as well as for our southerners.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 28, 2020 16:24:23 GMT -6
New Orleans taking a direct hit from Zetas eye wall
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 28, 2020 18:50:29 GMT -6
Any lightning with this rain in Missouri tonight? I'm not seeing any on radar yet.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 28, 2020 18:54:01 GMT -6
Been digging a bit into reanalysis and I've decided that 1995/1996 is the best analog for the upcoming winter...weak spring/summer nino, transitioning into a weak/moderate nina by fall, with plenty of blocking.
Nice analysis! What was the dominant storm track...also was there the clipper train? |
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Post by birddog on Oct 28, 2020 19:06:10 GMT -6
Been digging a bit into reanalysis and I've decided that 1995/1996 is the best analog for the upcoming winter...weak spring/summer nino, transitioning into a weak/moderate nina by fall, with plenty of blocking.
So what was 95-96 like? My memory not as sharp as it should be, but if I recall correctly it was bitter cold and snow in February. (Remember good ice fishing!) Don't remember the rest of the winter though. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 28, 2020 19:10:40 GMT -6
I was in Japan 95-96. I was deployed to the Arabian Sea during most of 95. I have no ideas what the weather was like here. I do remember Japan being cold when we returned in Jan 96, I specifically remember being near the Korean peninsula and getting snowed on while ot tonsea. Enough to have to preak out the fire hoses and hose it off the ship.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 28, 2020 19:25:37 GMT -6
Given the mean trof position centered over the upper OHV and NE, that would have put us on the edge of the clipper train and solidly within cold airmasses. I believe there was a significant snowstorm in Feb '96 as well as a sub-zero arctic outbreak. KSTL tallied 16" of snowfall for the year...right about average.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 28, 2020 19:28:05 GMT -6
Given the mean trof position centered over the upper OHV and NE, that would have put us on the edge of the clipper train and solidly within cold airmasses. I believe there was a significant snowstorm in Feb '96 as well as a sub-zero arctic outbreak. I believe KSTL tallied 25" of snowfall for the year...so it was fairly snowy. Thanks! Good to know...all it takes is one big snowstorm to get within 25". |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 28, 2020 19:30:23 GMT -6
Given the mean trof position centered over the upper OHV and NE, that would have put us on the edge of the clipper train and solidly within cold airmasses. I believe there was a significant snowstorm in Feb '96 as well as a sub-zero arctic outbreak. I believe KSTL tallied 25" of snowfall for the year...so it was fairly snowy. Thanks! Good to know...all it takes is one big snowstorm to get within 25". I edited my post...I was thinking of 94/95 which beaker had corrected me on in a previous post. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 28, 2020 19:49:07 GMT -6
Thanks! Good to know...all it takes is one big snowstorm to get within 25". I edited my post...I was thinking of 94/95 which beaker had corrected me on in a previous post. No worries...most people when they forecast a winter snowfall they would use a range of 16-25" anyway. 😊 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 28, 2020 19:53:46 GMT -6
I think in Feb 96 it got down to like -12 or -13, without snowcover at Lambert.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 28, 2020 19:55:00 GMT -6
I edited my post...I was thinking of 94/95 which beaker had corrected me on in a previous post. No worries...most people when they forecast a winter they would use a range of 16-25" anyway. 😊 Sounds good to me...we'll call it an even 20" and go from there |
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 28, 2020 19:57:01 GMT -6
No worries...most people when they forecast a winter they would use a range of 16-25" anyway. 😊 Sounds good to me...we'll call it an even 20" and go from there Yep that does sounds good. Haha yeah I'll take an even snowfall of 20" any winter! |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 28, 2020 20:04:34 GMT -6
I was in Japan 95-96. I was deployed to the Arabian Sea during most of 95. I have no ideas what the weather was like here. I do remember Japan being cold when we returned in Jan 96, I specifically remember being near the Korean peninsula and getting snowed on while ot tonsea. Enough to have to preak out the fire hoses and hose it off the ship. Talk of Japan always brings me back to this phenomenal video of sea effect snow in Tōkamachi located in the Niigata Prefecture. One of my YouTube favorites. They average 460" of snow annually. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 28, 2020 21:51:36 GMT -6
This is pretty cool. Sounding attached  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 29, 2020 5:15:46 GMT -6
Amazing that the freezing level is almost 20kft!
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Post by REB on Oct 29, 2020 8:52:38 GMT -6
.55" since midnight. .96" since yesterday.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 29, 2020 8:56:10 GMT -6
1.02 total here.
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Post by bear1 on Oct 29, 2020 9:02:55 GMT -6
1.15 here.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 29, 2020 9:02:58 GMT -6
Nice defo band setting up across the area. If only...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 29, 2020 9:10:21 GMT -6
Another big downturn in the SOI last couple days signals a major amplification towards the 10th after the moderation/zonal flow next week. This worked very well with the last downturn mid-month.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 29, 2020 10:00:06 GMT -6
In case anyone is wondering... standing out in the rain and wind all morning is cold. I'm cold  |
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Post by birddog on Oct 29, 2020 11:16:45 GMT -6
. 32" IMBY overnight
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 29, 2020 13:15:09 GMT -6
In case anyone is wondering... standing out in the rain and wind all morning is cold. I'm cold Ou looked like you might be shivering. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 29, 2020 13:39:07 GMT -6
Sun is shining at last. Time to dry this muck up.
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Post by REB on Oct 29, 2020 14:41:56 GMT -6
This sun has now made its appearance.
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Post by bear1 on Oct 29, 2020 15:25:40 GMT -6
ended up with 1.57" IMBY sun popped out for a few minutes earlier... now it's just cloudy & a very cool breeze is blowing..... I'll take it
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 29, 2020 16:27:09 GMT -6
Has anyone gone leaf-watching at Taum Sauk before? I have to imagine it would probably worth the trip one year.
EDIT: Considering we have Ironton folks on this forum, that's pretty much your backyard.
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