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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 16, 2020 22:26:02 GMT -6
Iota makes landfall 15 miles from where Eta did. Cat 4, 155 mph winds.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 16, 2020 23:23:08 GMT -6
Iota makes landfall 15 miles from where Eta did. Cat 4, 155 mph winds. Dang. Terrible for that area. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 17, 2020 9:16:37 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 17, 2020 11:54:04 GMT -6
Pattern looks pretty awful the next 10-15 days if you're into wintry weather. Source region for cold air is going to get shut off by persistent troffing in the GoA/PNA region. SOI has rebounded well into positive territory and the AO looks to remain positive or neutral at best. Thinking this is going to continue into the first week or so of December, but possibly make a quick reversal by mid-month.
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Post by mchafin on Nov 17, 2020 12:43:44 GMT -6
Pattern looks pretty awful the next 10-15 days if you're into wintry weather. Source region for cold air is going to get shut off by persistent troffing in the GoA/PNA region. SOI has rebounded well into positive territory and the AO looks to remain positive or neutral at best. Thinking this is going to continue into the first week or so of December, but possibly make a quick reversal by mid-month. Winter Cancel! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 17, 2020 15:58:26 GMT -6
Pattern looks pretty awful the next 10-15 days if you're into wintry weather. Source region for cold air is going to get shut off by persistent troffing in the GoA/PNA region. SOI has rebounded well into positive territory and the AO looks to remain positive or neutral at best. Thinking this is going to continue into the first week or so of December, but possibly make a quick reversal by mid-month. Winter Cancel! No way, lol. Things are still setting up nicely, IMO. We really don't want a solid winter pattern to set up this early. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 17, 2020 23:27:12 GMT -6
00z is... close to at least a few flakes Sunday evening.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 18, 2020 9:08:05 GMT -6
I agree with brtn. Timing looks great. We could even have a decent shot at turning the corner to winter for Christmas. Let the cold air build, then open the gates when the sun is at its lowest, and my thought is that a winter pattern is more sustainable and not just a random happenstance of perfect timing.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 18, 2020 9:13:08 GMT -6
Med range gfs has trended toward a wetter and wetter weekend, both days too. There was some question abt how far south the frontal boundary wld be on saturday and going forecasts indicated most of the rain wld hold off to our north until sunday. That was several days ago. But the trend shows a further south placement of that front, so saturday now looks wet as well as sunday, according to gfs. This may postpone alot of outdoor decorating this weekend.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 18, 2020 9:17:48 GMT -6
If the wetter trend continues, i wont be surprised to see a widespread 2 inch rain across the entire area but especially along and north of 44 in mo into Il.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 18, 2020 11:03:42 GMT -6
I need Saturday to remain dry please lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 18, 2020 11:47:15 GMT -6
I wld imagine that further south of 70 you go, the more drytime you will see on saturday. So for you its a little iffy but better odds than for me. Just my take based on gfs though.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 18, 2020 11:59:47 GMT -6
It'll be interesting too see how this weekend plays out...models have tended to be too aggressive with these frontal passages at this range, trending towards more of a stalled out or oozing scenario.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 18, 2020 12:13:16 GMT -6
It'll be interesting too see how this weekend plays out...models have tended to be too aggressive with these frontal passages at this range, trending towards more of a stalled out or oozing scenario. That is a good point and is something i did not factor in. I too am hoping for dry time saturday. |
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mrbogs
Weather Weenie
Posts: 19 
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Post by mrbogs on Nov 18, 2020 14:49:54 GMT -6
Hey everyone. Love to see and read all of the banter back and forth! So, I have a quick question for anyone, please. Can I get a rough idea how much rainfall we're looking to get this weekend? I was planning on putting down my Winterizer fertilizer, but don't want it to get washed away!
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 18, 2020 14:57:50 GMT -6
Hey everyone. Love to see and read all of the banter back and forth! So, I have a quick question for anyone, please. Can I get a rough idea how much rainfall we're looking to get this weekend? I was planning on putting down my Winterizer fertilizer, but don't want it to get washed away! A quick glance/rough idea .75"-1.25" area-wide. Likely on the higher end of that if you're further south and west outside of St. Louis. Lower end if you're east of the river. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 18, 2020 14:59:48 GMT -6
Hey everyone. Love to see and read all of the banter back and forth! So, I have a quick question for anyone, please. Can I get a rough idea how much rainfall we're looking to get this weekend? I was planning on putting down my Winterizer fertilizer, but don't want it to get washed away! A quick glance/rough idea .75"-1.25" area-wide. Likely on the higher end of that if you're further south and west outside of St. Louis. Lower end if you're east of the river. and if it helps, you'll have to keep in mind this all looks to fall in a 24-36 hour period of on & off rain |
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mrbogs
Weather Weenie
Posts: 19
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Post by mrbogs on Nov 18, 2020 15:12:50 GMT -6
Thanks, Uncle!
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 18, 2020 16:57:22 GMT -6
Hey everyone. Love to see and read all of the banter back and forth! So, I have a quick question for anyone, please. Can I get a rough idea how much rainfall we're looking to get this weekend? I was planning on putting down my Winterizer fertilizer, but don't want it to get washed away! Put it down the rain won’t hurt it unless it comes down like a monsoon which does not look likely |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 18, 2020 17:17:20 GMT -6
There is a wind advisory for tomorrow. Relative humidity should be > 40% and since things aren't terribly dry around here I don't think we'll have to worry about fires like they are in KS and western MO.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 18, 2020 17:27:28 GMT -6
There is a wind advisory for tomorrow. Relative humidity should be > 40% and since things aren't terribly dry around here I don't think we'll have to worry about fires like they are in KS and western MO. Not sure the humidity will be that high...dewpoints are in the 20s all the way down into MS and LA. I could definitely see an elevated fire risk tomorrow. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 18, 2020 18:15:54 GMT -6
There is a wind advisory for tomorrow. Relative humidity should be > 40% and since things aren't terribly dry around here I don't think we'll have to worry about fires like they are in KS and western MO. Dew points in the 30s, relative humidity 35-40% with 40-45 mph gusts...open fields do look to potentially have a fire danger. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 18, 2020 19:20:05 GMT -6
The 18z GFS sure is fun to look at! I think we could see mood flakes fly faster than we think. Knock on wood.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 18, 2020 22:04:09 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 18, 2020 22:25:00 GMT -6
Go big or go home. If it's gonna be strong, might as well go for the record! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 18, 2020 22:27:31 GMT -6
New 0Z GFS shows severe storms next Tuesday. Definitely a signal for some unsettled weather next week.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 19, 2020 3:59:12 GMT -6
Seems like the 06z gfs is pushing the heavier rain this weekend along I-70 and south now. Wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a lighter event then what was shown a day or two ago. Guess we will see. I believe brtn mentioned this.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 19, 2020 6:13:12 GMT -6
Seems like the 06z gfs is pushing the heavier rain this weekend along I-70 and south now. Wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a lighter event then what was shown a day or two ago. Guess we will see. I believe brtn mentioned this. I actually expected the front to hang up a bit more than models were showing, but that doesn't seem to be the case. The heaviest rainfall along and south of 70 would definitely fit the trend though, with W/central IL being so dry. Hopefully we can break this stretch of drought-like weather...these windy, low RH days aren't helping! |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 19, 2020 8:30:01 GMT -6
South trend has been apparent in the model. Im skeptical, so rt i think heaviest axis of rain will be through the metro, along and north of 44 and along and south of 70. Lighter amts into il. Imby, looking for close to 2 inches with 1.5 in areas north of 70 in the metro and south of 44 in the metro. Lesser amts further away. Not going to be a good weekend at all, imo. Cold temps in the 40s as well. Long term, generally mild regime will take hold. No accumulating snow in sight
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 19, 2020 8:41:31 GMT -6
While I remain optimistic for the core winter months, I will say that the lack of any form of cold air in Canada in the medium and long range as we head into December is concerning.
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