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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 15, 2020 13:57:18 GMT -6
Unfortunately, nothing really interesting showing up in the next 10 days.
A couple recent runs and individual ensemble members caught my attention for the days leading up to Thanksgiving, but they seem to have faded today.
The wait continues
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 15, 2020 14:45:23 GMT -6
Unfortunately, nothing really interesting showing up in the next 10 days. A couple recent runs and individual ensemble members caught my attention for the days leading up to Thanksgiving, but they seem to have faded today. The wait continues Even todays 12 gfs showed a big storm around Thanksgiving. Its a rainer with some potential for severe over southeast mo and southern Il. A further north track cld draw severe potential into our area. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 15, 2020 15:14:10 GMT -6
Unfortunately, nothing really interesting showing up in the next 10 days. A couple recent runs and individual ensemble members caught my attention for the days leading up to Thanksgiving, but they seem to have faded today. The wait continues Even todays 12 gfs showed a big storm around Thanksgiving. Its a rainer with some potential for severe over southeast mo and southern Il. A further north track cld draw severe potential into our area. I’m not really interested in rain, so I didn’t count the rather weak wave shown tracking to the north. Yawn |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 15, 2020 15:36:56 GMT -6
Iota is looking really good on satellite. Beautiful outflow everywhere with dual outflow channels to the north and south with the storm embedded under a very large upper level ridge. SHIPS diagnostics analyzed the shear at a mere 3kts with CIMSS analysis just over 5kts. With very warm sea surface temps and at least moderately high ocean heat content everything looks go for Iota to continue to intensify. HWRF intensifies it to 934mb/135mph prior to landfall near Honduras/Nicaragua and official NHC forecast is 140mph at landfall.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 15, 2020 15:37:15 GMT -6
Going to be waiting at least well into December
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 15, 2020 15:37:35 GMT -6
Unfortunately, nothing really interesting showing up in the next 10 days. A couple recent runs and individual ensemble members caught my attention for the days leading up to Thanksgiving, but they seem to have faded today. The wait continues Even todays 12 gfs showed a big storm around Thanksgiving. Its a rainer with some potential for severe over southeast mo and southern Il. A further north track cld draw severe potential into our area. 12z GEM was pretty bullish with that storm as well...but like the GFS, no cold air on the front end. Would agree with the potential for more severe weather...if the front hangs up and we get a persistent southerly flow like we saw this past week the stage will be set for a storm like that. The EC isn't nearly as thrilled at this point though. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 15, 2020 15:46:32 GMT -6
To me, the year that has come up several times in my own stats gathering is 2007-2008. It is similar in proximity to enso, as well as solar cycle, and antecedent rainfall. Eyeballing this year, it looks like we've had about 35 inches of rain so far, which is somewhat higher than the year 2007, though, so I'm inclined to temper the snow a bit. My numbers guessed in the past years are: 6, 9, 24, 20. Admittedly we came up well short last year. But the trend matches, and it looked like we could get a late season snow to get us a little closer, but that never materialized. I think this winter will be snowier than last winter, so the question is how high do I go. A couple ideas - this winter should be a mostly back loaded winter, with our bigger storms occurring in January and February. This winter should feature more ice, and more severe potential than normal. But the PV is strong, and it seems the Bermuda high is steering storms well to the north for the time being. So, I think the upper midwest are the big winners while we rely on secondary development. Minneapolis is already well on its way. I've previously was thinking we could see alot of clipper action this winter, but now, not so sure. My number...just a guess...22 inches of snow and sleet for this winter season. A season like 2007-2008 with more consistent cold would be great...maybe a pipe dream, but fun to think about! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 15, 2020 15:57:19 GMT -6
Beaker, now that I went back and looked at the ENSO historical tabs again 07/08 is a good analog...apparently I have a hard time reading that chart because I originally threw the wrong two analog years out there with 06/07 being one of them...the other 94/95 instead of 95/96, lol.
I'll get it right one of these days...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 15, 2020 18:54:56 GMT -6
Even todays 12 gfs showed a big storm around Thanksgiving. Its a rainer with some potential for severe over southeast mo and southern Il. A further north track cld draw severe potential into our area. I’m not really interested in rain, so I didn’t count the rather weak wave shown tracking to the north. Yawn oh gotcha. I know a number of ppl on this forum get excited about severe wx, and I didn't realize you weren't one of them. I'm not all that interested in rain either - but that is always the lion's share of winter precip in St. Louis, so as long as it's not freezing rain, or flash flooding and 34, then I'm OK with rain every now and then. That said, could be that the EC may be correct with a flatter, weaker wave. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 15, 2020 19:00:39 GMT -6
Beaker, now that I went back and looked at the ENSO historical tabs again 07/08 is a good analog...apparently I have a hard time reading that chart because I originally threw the wrong two analog years out there with 06/07 being one of them...the other 94/95 instead of 95/96, lol. I'll get it right one of these days... I'm not sure why I didn't consider 95/96 as a good analog year. Thing is, that year we ended up with 26 inches of snow which includes an inch in November. Not a bad year. Thinking this Winter may get off to a bit of a later start than that year though. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 15, 2020 21:36:26 GMT -6
Looks like Iota will make the run for Cat 3 or 4 tonight.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 15, 2020 23:51:55 GMT -6
Another snoozer from the 00z gfs
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 16, 2020 0:27:18 GMT -6
Looks like Iota will make the run for Cat 3 or 4 tonight. 945mb to 931mb in 90 minutes holy crap. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 16, 2020 0:30:39 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 16, 2020 7:22:22 GMT -6
Latest advisory puts Iota at 925mb and 155mph winds. Right on the cusp of Cat 5.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 16, 2020 9:00:37 GMT -6
Iota now a Cat 5
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 16, 2020 9:09:50 GMT -6
That is the latest category 5 hurricane on record.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 16, 2020 10:26:21 GMT -6
Looks to be a little more lopsided than it was overnight so hopefully it will weaken a bit. Track has shifted a bit south as well which would take the worst away from Puerto Cabezas.
I feel like I could have just copy and pasted my remarks from Eta.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 16, 2020 10:35:08 GMT -6
Recon really is everything...well almost everything. Eta looked much better on satellite at it's peak than Iota does. I think it's helpful to go back and see where we went wrong because I thought for sure before recon made it into Eta that it was a sub-900mb Cat 5. In hindsight I should have been more suspicious because I was only seeing IR eye temps of around 5C which is generally not consistent with a Cat 5. Iota on the other hand has an IR eye temp closer to 15C.
Anyway, the Atlantic has been chugging out Cat 4 & 5s like it's normal in recent years. I think this is like 5 years in a row now with a Cat 5. From an enthusiast point of view it's pretty cool, but really it'll be nice for all those impacted to wind down this hyperactivity era.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 16, 2020 11:34:07 GMT -6
Before 2020, only 8 storms in recorded history intensified 100mph in 36 hours.
This year alone, 4 storms have done it. Unreal. Seems like the climate folks might be on to somethin'.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 16, 2020 11:48:52 GMT -6
Of course shortly after I posted about Iota looking a bit less healthy, it regained its form and looks nastier than ever before now. Also took a jog north. Geez.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 16, 2020 14:47:30 GMT -6
Of course shortly after I posted about Iota looking a bit less healthy, it regained its form and looks nastier than ever before now. Also took a jog north. Geez. Cause 2020... |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 16, 2020 14:48:29 GMT -6
Iota is a Cat 5 now. Is that the latest cat 5 during a season on record?
Edit: Just read somewhere that it is. Chart down another record that 2020 has broken!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 16, 2020 15:19:46 GMT -6
12z euro control throws the northern metro a bone next Monday with a good burst of snow.
The operational run is further north with this feature.
Finally, something interesting
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 16, 2020 15:26:50 GMT -6
I don't reckon there's any radar or live cams out of Puerto Cabezas? I sure can find either.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 16, 2020 15:38:58 GMT -6
Iota is a Cat 5 now. Is that the latest cat 5 during a season on record?
Edit: Just read somewhere that it is. Chart down another record that 2020 has broken!
You're a bit late checking in. We covered all that this morning  |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 16, 2020 15:43:34 GMT -6
Before 2020, only 8 storms in recorded history intensified 100mph in 36 hours. This year alone, 4 storms have done it. Unreal. Seems like the climate folks might be on to somethin'. And 3 of those were Greek Alphabet storms. What a fascinating stat. |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 16, 2020 15:47:12 GMT -6
And there's a decent chance we see a Kappa form this week to bookend the 2020 Atlantic tropical season.
I don't know...2020 in general is all just Greek to me at this point...
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 16, 2020 16:02:26 GMT -6
I don't reckon there's any radar or live cams out of Puerto Cabezas? I sure can find either. I'm pretty sure there is a radar on San Andres island east of Nicaragua but I can't find a link for it. Edit: I found the link for the San Andres radar but it does not appear to be working. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 16, 2020 16:36:51 GMT -6
I couldn't give one iota
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