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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 20, 2020 10:34:29 GMT -6
Was it last year that we had like 4 deformation zone rains in December? 12z GFS would like to remind us of that dark time next weekend.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 20, 2020 10:38:21 GMT -6
Was it last year that we had like 4 deformation zone rains in December? 12z GFS would like to remind us of that dark time next weekend. I was just going to post that I like the setup the gfs shows next weekend lol. Honestly, the timing is just a hair off. Need the low to bomb out and draw the cold air in quicker. Still, nice to see any cold air even if it’s in day 7-10 fantasy range. I strongly agree with Beaker that the climatology bias makes the gfs look bad in that range. It always oversells the cold. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 20, 2020 10:52:20 GMT -6
12z ggem coming in very cold for next weekend. Strong high pressure crushes any meaningful storm
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 20, 2020 11:18:41 GMT -6
12z ggem coming in very cold for next weekend. Strong high pressure crushes any meaningful storm There may be some potential there, but I'm far from interested in any snow chances at this point...I just don't think the large scale pattern supports it currently. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 20, 2020 11:41:45 GMT -6
12z ggem coming in very cold for next weekend. Strong high pressure crushes any meaningful storm There may be some potential there, but I'm far from interested in any snow chances at this point...I just don't think the large scale pattern supports it currently. Im just happy to see trends toward solid shortwaves... and not sheared out garbage. I think the cold air may take care of itself eventually. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 20, 2020 11:42:55 GMT -6
Wther is pretty blah across the country given it's the last 1/3 of November
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 20, 2020 11:45:55 GMT -6
If you were only guaranteed 17" this year would you rather get there by being nickle and dimed or by getting a big one-and-done style storm?
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 20, 2020 12:03:47 GMT -6
If you were only guaranteed 17" this year would you rather get there by being nickle and dimed or by getting a big one-and-done style storm? Nickle and dimed by clippers... must be associated with big time cold. OR one crusher. or two medium crushers. Last year's melting snows melting in the middle of the night will haunt me forever. If you weren't under 30-35 dbz banding you were rapidly losing snowpack. It was really disappointing. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 20, 2020 12:07:36 GMT -6
3 or 4 nickle/dime storms... and 2 decent. Thats all I need.
3 or 4 two inchers... with 2 two to five storms... I'd be happy.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 20, 2020 12:26:15 GMT -6
If you were only guaranteed 17" this year would you rather get there by being nickle and dimed or by getting a big one-and-done style storm? Nickel and dime. Most of the fun is tracking storms. It would be a long winter if there was just one big one. On the flip side, a bunch of 2 inch or less storms would get frustrating, so I echo Chris’ mix of a couple 2-5 inchers as well. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 20, 2020 12:34:00 GMT -6
There may be some potential there, but I'm far from interested in any snow chances at this point...I just don't think the large scale pattern supports it currently. Im just happy to see trends toward solid shortwaves... and not sheared out garbage. I think the cold air may take care of itself eventually. Completely agree...I have been digging the pattern overall for well over a month. I was thinking how this weekend's storm, and the next couple in line possibly would have good potential if we were in the heart of the cold season. The N branch seems to be loaded with digging waves that will coax the cold down, and the S branch keeps loading the Great Basin with energy...that's a solid recipe for snowstorms 'round here! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 20, 2020 12:35:34 GMT -6
Nickel and dime 100%
I’ll take a 2-4 inch clipper that last for a week over 6 inches of slop that melts in a day or two
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 20, 2020 12:59:10 GMT -6
12z euro coming in interesting for next weekend as well.
Definitely looks like a legit cold shot and an outside chance at some flakes.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 20, 2020 13:01:40 GMT -6
Nickel and dime 100% I’ll take a 2-4 inch clipper that last for a week over 6 inches of slop that melts in a day or two I love clippers .... usually it’s a nice fine powder thats easy to shovel or sweep followed by cold that keeps the snow around for a few days |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 20, 2020 13:17:35 GMT -6
12z euro drops 2+ inches of rain tonight and tomorrow up 44
Going to be moist
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 20, 2020 13:48:08 GMT -6
Really? I'm surprised. I think my vote is for an epic 17" storm...followed by a lot of cold so it sticks around of course.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 20, 2020 13:51:18 GMT -6
Really? I'm surprised. I think my vote is for an epic 17" storm...followed by a lot of cold so it sticks around of course. Sign me up. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 20, 2020 14:06:10 GMT -6
Snow on snow is rare here. So i wld like to see 12 inches of wind blown snow, followed by a cold wave of near 0 temps, then another 5 inches of snow 2 days after the 12. After about 2 weeks, then spring can come. Ideal winter.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 20, 2020 14:12:07 GMT -6
Or heres an idea....top it off with freezing drizzle so that a layer of ice forms on top, preserving the snow pack for a longer amt of time. This used to happen in cape. We wld be walking on top of the ice/snow pack for a long time. Made for dome interesting sledding too lol. Didnt need much of a hill lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 20, 2020 14:21:40 GMT -6
I used to be a paper delivery boy when i was 11. On a busy street, there was this house sitting on top of a big hill. We delivered papers to the front door so carrying my paper bag full of 100 folded papers that was quite a challenge getting up that hill when there was solid ice. Once, i remember when i got up the hill, a kid abt 5 years older than me said, "why didnt you just walk up?" Yeah right.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 20, 2020 14:43:57 GMT -6
Well, my outdoor lights are up! Next weekend they get turned on for a month or so! Christmas cheer!
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 20, 2020 14:56:19 GMT -6
We are definitely do for a solid snow-on-snow event. The last time we got 4"+ on top of a depth of 2"+ was back in 1999.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 20, 2020 15:04:50 GMT -6
Really? I'm surprised. I think my vote is for an epic 17" storm...followed by a lot of cold so it sticks around of course. Sign me up. Me too. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 20, 2020 15:04:54 GMT -6
I'd settle for the first week of February 1982 myself (last couple days of Jan in there too) down this way. I finally found a couple pictures of the "30 inches of snow" in the back yard my dad used to talk about. Turns out it was legit, or very close to it by the looks of things!
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 20, 2020 15:16:16 GMT -6
Doesn't look too bad to me...  I’m not here to knock their forecast, but I have read that those charts sometimes can be pretty much overlayed with average La Niña outcomes. That isn’t really telling the whole story if it’s the primary driver of the forecast. Agree, this does look heavily Nina influenced. I like Cohen of course and follow his forecasts, but on the other hand the PV isn't everything either. And I've seen Cohen's forecast bust badly before...no offense to him; seasonal forecasts can be tricky. I judge a winter more by the snow than the cold anyway. Don't really care if the average temp during the Winter months is a few degrees below normal overall. And as Chris pointed out we're still getting strong shortwaves even with the strengthening PV and all it takes is the right amount of cold air at the right time...doesn't have to be the motherload. Obviously it could still be a total bust of a Winter no matter how you dice it. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 20, 2020 15:33:00 GMT -6
Another... more statistical and less meteorological reason to favor average or above snow (july to july... not just "winter") is that it would be a very rare event to have this many sub normal years of snow in a row. I'm speaking from memory...but I think with very very few exceptions.. the most sub normal years in a row was 3 or 4. Of course, I could be mis remembering that.
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 20, 2020 16:07:13 GMT -6
Look what I saw on my phone Weather App.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 20, 2020 16:43:12 GMT -6
Look what I saw on my phone Weather App. Our app tried to push out that crap this morning and I over-wrote it. |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 20, 2020 17:10:31 GMT -6
Whoever has a apple phone did you just get a Illinois warning on your phone re: Covid? And travel?
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 20, 2020 17:22:41 GMT -6
Whoever has a apple phone did you just get a Illinois warning on your phone re: Covid? And travel? I got the same message |
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