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Post by bdgwx on Oct 9, 2020 11:17:45 GMT -6
A pretty substantial drought is building in the United Sates. As of 10/6 the D1 (moderate drought) area is 44% coverage. This the first time since the historic drought of 2012 that this figure has gone above 40%. And with La Nina forecasted this winter the prospects of easing aren't good. Hopefully we do not have a repeat of 2012 in 2021.
Oh...and it's a little smokey out there today...again.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2020 11:18:18 GMT -6
Smokey skies again...pretty hazy out there this afternoon.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2020 11:18:39 GMT -6
Jinx
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2020 11:21:41 GMT -6
A pretty substantial drought is building in the United Sates. As of 10/6 the D1 (moderate drought) area is 44% coverage. This the first time since the historic drought of 2012 that this figure has gone above 40%. And with La Nina forecasted this winter the prospects of easing aren't good. Hopefully we do not have a repeat 2012 in 2021. Oh...and it's a little smokey out there today...again. I shudder at the thought. I was definitely wrong about the river flooding potential a month or so ago...although levels did rise with the heavy rainfall up north several weeks ago, the persistent dry pattern that has settled in nixed that threat. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 9, 2020 11:42:04 GMT -6
We're certainly due for an extended dry period - its been very moist for several years now. I agree with BRTN though, I can't stand the thought of another 2012 summer.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2020 12:16:29 GMT -6
We're certainly due for an extended dry period - its been very moist for several years now. I agree with BRTN though, I can't stand the thought of another 2012 summer. I'm starting to get the feeling we're going to be seeing lots of clippers and dry arctic airmasses this winter, while the upper OHV/lakes and NE gets railed by snow and ice storms. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 9, 2020 13:03:34 GMT -6
that 65 Td is painful.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 9, 2020 13:07:48 GMT -6
We're certainly due for an extended dry period - its been very moist for several years now. I agree with BRTN though, I can't stand the thought of another 2012 summer. I'm starting to get the feeling we're going to be seeing lots of clippers and dry arctic airmasses this winter, while the upper OHV/lakes and NE gets railed by snow and ice storms. Me too. My thoughts are pretty dry overall with some pretty intense shots of cold that last a couple days before moderating to slightly above normal. I think our best chance for accumulating snowfall will be from modified clippers that ride the edge of the NW flow and pick up enough moisture from time to time to be meaningful. I'm not expecting multiple 31/32 degree deluges this year. I also unfortunately agree that the NE is going to get slammed this winter. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 9, 2020 13:29:02 GMT -6
lol, couple weeks ago, people expecting an awesome winter, now it's a clipper fest. It's early October.
Just hope you're not sick with the 'Rona. lol
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 9, 2020 13:52:36 GMT -6
1034 high at the end of the euro run.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 9, 2020 14:00:45 GMT -6
1034 high at the end of the euro run. 850's down to around -5 at the 240 hr mark. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 9, 2020 14:13:09 GMT -6
09/10 was a pretty awesome winter and a full blown clipper fest.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 9, 2020 15:46:12 GMT -6
Clipper snows are the best snows imo. Usually high ratio and followed by a shot of very cold air
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 9, 2020 16:45:27 GMT -6
Gonna be interesting to see how the globals consolidate all this energy around the 19th... looks like a stiff baroclinic zone with plenty of potential for cyclogenesis. Bit of a disorganized mid-to-upper level structure tho.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 9, 2020 17:07:02 GMT -6
Gonna be interesting to see how the globals consolidate all this energy around the 19th... looks like a stiff baroclinic zone with plenty of potential for cyclogenesis. Bit of a disorganized mid-to-upper level structure tho. 18z gfs has snow in IA then central MO followed by an even colder airmass behind it. Book it. All jokes aside, if that pattern and setup is a preview of winter, we are set. Not saying it is, just saying it’s impressive. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 10, 2020 10:37:54 GMT -6
12z gfs has a ridiculous early season winter storm in the D10 range.
A sneak preview of the winter ahead perhaps
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Post by amstilost on Oct 10, 2020 12:11:17 GMT -6
12z gfs has a ridiculous early season winter storm in the D10 range. A sneak preview of the winter ahead perhaps |
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Post by amstilost on Oct 10, 2020 12:14:14 GMT -6
I don't know how I was able to post a quote without saying anything in it. I was just getting ready to post about the day 10 storm on this morning's 12 GFS. I hope our winter (St. Louis area) doesn't end up with storms tracking like that...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 10, 2020 13:01:57 GMT -6
Just 2.5 days left of this Summer-Like non-sense before it starts to feel like fall again and apparently early Winter like 8-10 days from now.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 10, 2020 13:09:29 GMT -6
12z euro has some D10 fun as well. Just gets it together to far southeast.
Pretty amazing stuff for the time of year
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 10, 2020 14:22:45 GMT -6
In 10 days is it super cold?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 10, 2020 14:44:59 GMT -6
In 10 days is it super cold? Relative to time of year and the weather in STL recently it will certainly feel super cold if the models are right (big IF). Think lows in the upper 20s in areas away from the city and maybe a day with high temps struggling to break 45-50. It’ll be transient too, so it’s not like we are expected to go straight into the freezer. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 10, 2020 20:06:35 GMT -6
In 10 days is it super cold? Relative to time of year and the weather in STL recently it will certainly feel super cold if the models are right (big IF). Think lows in the upper 20s in areas away from the city and maybe a day with high temps struggling to break 45-50. It’ll be transient too, so it’s not like we are expected to go straight into the freezer. Already pushed back to 5 days away now. Looks like this persistent Dome of Summer just doesn't want to budge. It will eventually... Now it looks like 80s for the Metro through Wednesday with the front coming through Thursday. The start of the always 2 weeks away curse? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 11, 2020 11:08:42 GMT -6
GFS has us basically on the sw edge of the colder air. Has it cool, maybe a day below freezing early next week, but nothing stupid. Unlike this heat and humidity we have now.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 11, 2020 13:02:21 GMT -6
Went ahead and did some winterizing of our trailer at the cabin! Still need to get the pontoon out and the cabin ready to close up! Hoping the cold is not too bad yet! We do shut the water off to be safe!
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 11, 2020 19:05:45 GMT -6
Those low level lapse rates may tap into some 40+ winds tomorrow’s afternoon
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 11, 2020 19:43:17 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 11, 2020 19:52:00 GMT -6
KGCK 120002Z 34034G55KT 1/4SM HZ BLDU SQ VV007 24/02 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND
33055/0000 PRESRR T02440022=
Blowing dust squall
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 12, 2020 8:21:14 GMT -6
Yep. That's a fall fropa
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 12, 2020 9:13:24 GMT -6
The wind is here. I glanced out the window and for a second I thought it was snowing the leaves were coming down so fast.
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