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Post by tedrick65 on Oct 12, 2020 9:37:43 GMT -6
Actually a little rain here at Manchester and Barrett Station
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 12, 2020 9:54:11 GMT -6
Dust storm in progress in Alton...40+ gusts
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 12, 2020 9:57:57 GMT -6
It seems the models (GFS in particular) are relying too heavily on climatology again. We are back to the over exaggeration of cold fronts in the 7-10 day range.
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 12, 2020 10:18:53 GMT -6
Dust storm in progress in Alton...40+ gusts Gust to 47mph at Parks/Cahokia |
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Post by REB on Oct 12, 2020 11:02:44 GMT -6
And just like that the yard is covered with leaves.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 12, 2020 11:47:20 GMT -6
Dust storm in progress in Alton...40+ gusts Gust to 47mph at Parks/Cahokia Vis got below 1/2mi here for sure...approaching 1/4mi at times. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 12, 2020 12:14:55 GMT -6
The Canadian always oversells the cold, but even accounting for that it is downright frigid early next week. Definitely would feel like the dead of winter if that happened
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 12, 2020 12:18:50 GMT -6
Meanwhile, the 12z gfs spins up a monster hurricane at the end of its run. It’s been showing it on and off for a few runs now.
Would not be surprised if one more significant hurricane paid the U.S. a visit to finish out this active season.
Might even have a chance to produce some snow up the east coast with the right track now that we are turning the corner toward the back half of October
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 12, 2020 13:23:22 GMT -6
12z euro is disinterested with any real cold shot.
Typical
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 12, 2020 14:20:33 GMT -6
12z euro is disinterested with any real cold shot. Typical I'd rather not end October with dew points in the mid 60s. Jesus. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 12, 2020 22:21:02 GMT -6
GFS convinced of snow before november.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 13, 2020 6:08:14 GMT -6
I saw that too, even on the 06 run. But, of course, i have also found the gfs is frequently too cold in the longer ranges as well. But the rollercoaster pattern seems apparent for the rest of october and i wonder if an early season winter event (ie b4 thanksgiving) that we have become accustomed to last couple years is in the works for yet another year. Iirc, last 2 years we had a little snow around Veterans Day.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 13, 2020 6:27:03 GMT -6
I saw that too, even on the 06 run. But, of course, i have also found the gfs is frequently too cold in the longer ranges as well. But the rollercoaster pattern seems apparent for the rest of october and i wonder if an early season winter event (ie b4 thanksgiving) that we have become accustomed to last couple years is in the works for yet another year. Iirc, last 2 years we had a little snow around Veterans Day. Yea, we are on two years in a row of snow in mid-November and the way things are shaping up I wouldn't be surprised to see it again. While that can be fun, it concerns me about the rest of the winter. I would rather it held off until December personally. Good to see the GFS actually come back to a colder solution like we saw several days ago though. Normally once its gone, its gone. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 13, 2020 6:41:23 GMT -6
The one thing i notice...very subtle, but yet is in my mind...we typically have to wait for any tropical system to get out of the way before a cold front comes through. That hasnt been the case this year. Pattern changes to colder wx seem easier to come by and yes we have warmed up from time to time but thats just been a part of the progressive pattern weve been seeing. Im not too concerned abt draining the cold air unless we get a sustained unseasonable cold outbreak. My hunch continues to be cold times this winter. Now with that drought intensifying in the plains, that could signal more of a clipperesque pattern over a mid latitude storm system pattern but plenty of time for things to change to make that call.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 13, 2020 6:44:52 GMT -6
Where can I get the quick and easy EPO, NAO, etc. graphs? My go-to page says it is no longer available and I can't figure out what the heck they upgraded to.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 13, 2020 12:20:48 GMT -6
Thermometer had 40 degrees at 7am, now it has 81. Gross.
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Post by dschreib on Oct 13, 2020 12:35:59 GMT -6
I saw that too, even on the 06 run. But, of course, i have also found the gfs is frequently too cold in the longer ranges as well. But the rollercoaster pattern seems apparent for the rest of october and i wonder if an early season winter event (ie b4 thanksgiving) that we have become accustomed to last couple years is in the works for yet another year. Iirc, last 2 years we had a little snow around Veterans Day. Yea, we are on two years in a row of snow in mid-November and the way things are shaping up I wouldn't be surprised to see it again. While that can be fun, it concerns me about the rest of the winter. I would rather it held off until December personally. Good to see the GFS actually come back to a colder solution like we saw several days ago though. Normally once its gone, its gone. I'll take snow whenever I can get it. Beats waiting "two more weeks". |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 13, 2020 13:03:12 GMT -6
12z euro is disinterested with any real cold shot. Typical I'd rather not end October with dew points in the mid 60s. Jesus. Euro still showing summer like dew points toward the end of its run  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 13, 2020 13:04:53 GMT -6
I'd rather not end October with dew points in the mid 60s. Jesus. Euro still showing summer like dew points toward the end of its run This graphic begs for a cold punch to kick out a severe storm or 3... |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 13, 2020 14:14:06 GMT -6
fire wx watch hoisted.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 13, 2020 15:52:01 GMT -6
Brush fire just across the road from my friends place outside of Godfrey this afternoon...burnt up a few acres of corn. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Oct 13, 2020 15:56:32 GMT -6
Brush fire just across the road from my friends place outside of Godfrey this afternoon...burnt up a few acres of corn. There was another in Lebanon IL too. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 13, 2020 18:00:44 GMT -6
EURO's also got some solid severe storms at the same time as well. Would be neat to get thunderstorms at least one more time this year.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 13, 2020 21:47:53 GMT -6
My first go at an outlook for the coming winter. December through February Temperature Trends for 2020-2021 Winter Season.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 13, 2020 22:08:53 GMT -6
I have to say- no one has any idea what you’re saying
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 13, 2020 22:33:48 GMT -6
I have to say- no one has any idea what you’re saying I'm more of a milder than warm kinda guy. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 13, 2020 23:10:48 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 14, 2020 3:52:46 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 14, 2020 12:01:32 GMT -6
Well so much for the big cold front early next week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 14, 2020 12:26:35 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen seems to think the high latitude blocking and amplified pattern will likely continue into winter...but questions whether the PV will weaken or not. Siberian snowfall advance is forecast to pick up in earnest in the coming week or so, which is a good sign for winter. The SST anomaly pattern across the NH also looks pretty supportive for blocking...as well as low sea ice extent in the arctic. It's going to be an interesting winter with the -ENSO developing. www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ |
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