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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 4, 2021 20:20:23 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 6, 2021 11:15:26 GMT -6
I think that article is misleading regarding the claim of an imminent grand solar minimum. Neither NOAA nor NASA are predicting such an event. The only one who has been vocal about is Zharkova whose research is not well received by the academic community. It is certainly possible that a GSM could occur at anytime really. One school of thought is that we are due for one. The problem is that there is little if any skill in predicting such events. Vetted solar models barely have skill at predicting the current or upcoming cycle. And skill drops off to near zero at 2 cycles out. So while a GSM will occur again we don't really know when. I will say that solar cycle 25 is underway so odds are already stacked against Zharkova's claim that a GSM started in 2020.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 11, 2021 17:53:30 GMT -6
my understanding is that you still have the 11 year cycles, but with gsm, they are weaker. kind of like a cycle within a bigger cycle. now, that said, i saw 2 things wrong with the article right off the bat: 1) i dont think the current cold snap is due to the solar minima or the gsm, 2) i dont think the climate change over the past 100 years is due exclusively to man made causes.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 11, 2021 19:01:55 GMT -6
Yeah, absolutely. The Dalton minimum still had sunspot cycles just with reduced counts. If I had to guess I'd say a GSM like the Dalton minimum would be the most likely near term scenario. And although there are no vetted predictions of such a near term scenario I'm actually kind of rooting for one because it would provide a scientists with a great opportunity to constrain its radiative forcing effect.
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