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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 18:12:39 GMT -6
dusting so far; my subdivision roads are wet as StL County came through earlier with a pre-treatment.
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 14, 2021 18:13:38 GMT -6
First batch is very meh here.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 14, 2021 18:15:10 GMT -6
Snow is really fighting through dry air right now… I can still see hints of sunshine in the distance. I saw the same Chris when it started picking up in O’Fallon but its darkened quickly. I’m dry slotted now however |
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Post by ndolan387 on Feb 14, 2021 18:20:43 GMT -6
I filtered through hourly observations of temperature, weather, and precip going back to 1945 and compared with daily snowfall summary. Unless I missed something I did not find a single event in which we received accumulating snow of more than 1" while temperatures were below 10F. Note that the hourly obs record can be a bit sketchy at times; just because I didn't find it doesn't mean it didn't happen. I hope everyone appreciates the rarity of the event that is expected tonight/tomorrow. If KSTL were to report several inches of snowfall under 10F I'm guesstimating that would be something like a 1-50 to 1-100 year event. I'm guessing 6+" and the recurrence interval is probably closer to 100 years. Thanks for figuring this out! |
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 18:24:46 GMT -6
Keep in mind folks - we’re not supposed to get a ton tonight. AmIRight?
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 18:25:00 GMT -6
I am not really expecting more than a heavy dusting tonight. Main show is 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. tomorrow in my opinion
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 18:28:18 GMT -6
Keep in mind folks - we’re not supposed to get a ton tonight. AmIRight? Best chances for accumulating snow will be after midnight then a lull in the morning before the big deformation zone lifts north into the area |
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Post by jeepers on Feb 14, 2021 18:31:31 GMT -6
Good because nada is happening here.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 18:31:40 GMT -6
I am not really expecting more than a heavy dusting tonight. Main show is 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. tomorrow in my opinion You’ll get more than a heavy dusting tonight. This system is just barely getting going |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 18:34:55 GMT -6
Roads are already snow covered here in Arnold.
Ripping pretty good right now
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 18:38:24 GMT -6
Have had a beautiful moderate snow for 30-40 mins now.
Don't fret the Spring field radar looks amazing and that is all moving ENE up 44.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Feb 14, 2021 18:38:24 GMT -6
Thought fish might pop in for this one...
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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2021 18:40:58 GMT -6
Mostly pencil erasers and smaller, but a few dimes mixed in.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 18:41:20 GMT -6
Roads are already snow covered here in Arnold. Ripping pretty good right now Yeah roads are covered. Considering the radar presentation it's really ripping outside |
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 18:41:33 GMT -6
I think fish is staying away from this judgey group.
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 14, 2021 18:46:48 GMT -6
Have had a beautiful moderate snow for 30-40 mins now. Don't fret the Spring field radar looks amazing and that is all moving ENE up 44. Not sure I agree with that. It's mostly north of 44 and heading NNE and looks like it's weakening on RadarScope |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 14, 2021 18:47:40 GMT -6
Coming down good here too... footprints from the old snow are filling in nicely.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 18:49:49 GMT -6
Have had a beautiful moderate snow for 30-40 mins now. Don't fret the Spring field radar looks amazing and that is all moving ENE up 44. Not sure I agree with that. It's mostly north of 44 and heading NNE and looks like it's weakening on RadarScope yeah the snow looks like it's heading almost due north but that's not how the lift is moving in the atmosphere the lift is chugging East Northeast. Which means snow will start to develop up I 44 in the metro you'll see  free photo host |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2021 18:50:48 GMT -6
Then look a little farther south to Little Rock...or Shreveport...or Dallas.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 18:52:19 GMT -6
Snow has just started. The hires nam didn't have any qpf in Belleville until 9PM.
So this is bonus so far
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 18:52:39 GMT -6
1-5am looks like the prime time tonight for accumulating snow in the area
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 14, 2021 18:52:54 GMT -6
Man I sure do hope radar fills in because this has been a real p****r in Ballwin. Ten miles away it's snowing well enough to cover footprints.
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Post by amstilost on Feb 14, 2021 18:54:26 GMT -6
I have 'Diamond Dust' falling. I hope the radar continues to produce green returns just to my SW like it has been doing. Temp 4* 7 miles west of De Soto. The snow is so dry you can't use the twinkle to tell the difference between old snow and new snow Careful about using the word 'twinkle'....it is Valentine's Day you know.  |
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Post by RyanD on Feb 14, 2021 18:59:29 GMT -6
Really snowing good here in Waterloo. Already some minor drifting. Roads are mostly covered. Next 24 hours could be epic and if we can add something midweek this has the potential to be the best stretch of winter weather in this forum's history.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 19:00:06 GMT -6
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sals20
Wishcaster
Imperial, MO.
Posts: 92
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Post by sals20 on Feb 14, 2021 19:06:57 GMT -6
Dusting in Imperial. Coming down pretty good.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 14, 2021 19:08:52 GMT -6
So when is this stratospheric warming thing supposed to happen
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Post by RyanD on Feb 14, 2021 19:09:48 GMT -6
I filtered through hourly observations of temperature, weather, and precip going back to 1945 and compared with daily snowfall summary. Unless I missed something I did not find a single event in which we received accumulating snow of more than 1" while temperatures were below 10F. Note that the hourly obs record can be a bit sketchy at times; just because I didn't find it doesn't mean it didn't happen. I hope everyone appreciates the rarity of the event that is expected tonight/tomorrow. If KSTL were to report several inches of snowfall under 10F I'm guesstimating that would be something like a 1-50 to 1-100 year event. I'm guessing 6+" and the recurrence interval is probably closer to 100 years. I wonder what the records show for early Jan. 1991 or maybe it was 1992. There was a very shallow arctic airmass in place here with waves of overrunning precip. It was mostly sleet and freezing rain with temps in the single digits but I remember a convective cell overwhelmed the warm wedge over STL and dumped 4" of snow on an hour. Pretty sure it was in the single digits when that occurred but I suppose it may have been above 10. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 19:10:31 GMT -6
Dry air is definitely messing up the first batch of snow that's moving NE along the river.
We have a about 1/4". But it's blowing all over the place so it's nearly impossible to measure at this point
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Feb 14, 2021 19:12:06 GMT -6
Y’all, we got 5” of snow in San Angelo, TX from this bad boy and temp is currently 8F. Y’all are in for a treat the next 24 hours. Enjoy it!
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