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Post by scmhack on Feb 14, 2021 19:13:21 GMT -6
Currently Virga over Alton
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Post by scmhack on Feb 14, 2021 19:16:10 GMT -6
And now its not virga.....
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 19:16:14 GMT -6
I filtered through hourly observations of temperature, weather, and precip going back to 1945 and compared with daily snowfall summary. Unless I missed something I did not find a single event in which we received accumulating snow of more than 1" while temperatures were below 10F. Note that the hourly obs record can be a bit sketchy at times; just because I didn't find it doesn't mean it didn't happen. I hope everyone appreciates the rarity of the event that is expected tonight/tomorrow. If KSTL were to report several inches of snowfall under 10F I'm guesstimating that would be something like a 1-50 to 1-100 year event. I'm guessing 6+" and the recurrence interval is probably closer to 100 years. I wonder what the records show for early Jan. 1991 or maybe it was 1992. There was a very shallow arctic airmass in place here with waves of overrunning precip. It was mostly sleet and freezing rain with temps in the single digits but I remember a convective cell overwhelmed the warm wedge over STL and dumped 4" of snow on an hour. Pretty sure it was in the single digits when that occurred but I suppose it may have been above 10. I remember when I was a little boy at my uncle Tom's. I was 8 or 9. So it was 1990 or 1991... And we just had like 0.25" freezing rain The next storm like 36 hours later dropped heavy sleet.. Maybe a half inch. Then in like 60-80 mins we had massive flakes. Like 3-4" in an hour. Then back to freezing rain and it was like 12-15F. Had another 0.50" of freezing rain. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 19:27:09 GMT -6
00z HRRR shows about 2" overnight then goes bonkers with the stuff tomorrow
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2021 19:30:36 GMT -6
Yes great run
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 332 
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Post by bob on Feb 14, 2021 19:31:44 GMT -6
What does Hrrr show
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 19:34:27 GMT -6
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 332
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Post by bob on Feb 14, 2021 19:36:26 GMT -6
Thanks looks good
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2021 19:39:21 GMT -6
21Z SREF is 5.7".
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 14, 2021 19:40:43 GMT -6
I’d call it moderate to heavy snow in Perryville coming down in sheets. Hoping to see it all continue to develop to the sw.
No idea how I’m going to get a measurement here. It’s just drifting across the bed of sleet on the ground. This is wild.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 14, 2021 19:43:14 GMT -6
With a couple solid Thursday members. One dude over 2’ for BLV. For the total. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 14, 2021 19:45:26 GMT -6
I checked the driveway and the box. .5" so far....Temp down to 3* 7 miles west of De Soto.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2021 19:50:50 GMT -6
QPF roundup (rounded to nearest 0.05")
21Z SREF - 0.30"
18Z GEFS - 0.30"
15Z SREF - 0.30"
12Z EPS - 0.30"
12Z GEFS - 0.30"
12Z GEPS - 0.30"
Clearly the ensemble consensus is still 0.30". We do have some individual runs of globals, mesoscale, and CAMs that are 0.4" or higher. Not to be a Debbie Downer here but it just seems like our 50/50 point is still less than 6".
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 19:53:14 GMT -6
When it falls hard, it piles up, but then blows all over the place. This stuff is very fluffy.
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Post by scmhack on Feb 14, 2021 19:53:15 GMT -6
QPF roundup (rounded to nearest 0.05") 21Z SREF - 0.30" 18Z GEFS - 0.30" 15Z SREF - 0.30" 12Z EPS - 0.30" 12Z GEFS - 0.30" 12Z GEPS - 0.30" Clearly the ensemble consensus is still 0.30". We do have some individual runs of globals, mesoscale, and CAMs that are 0.4" or higher. Not to be a Debbie Downer here but it just seems like our 50/50 point is still less than 6". I think the ratios are higher than 20:1 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 19:58:56 GMT -6
HRRR has several hours tomorrow where the visibility is 1 mile or less  |
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Post by ams3389 on Feb 14, 2021 19:59:45 GMT -6
I just have a bad feeling in a bad way. I hope I’m wrong.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2021 20:00:46 GMT -6
QPF roundup (rounded to nearest 0.05") 21Z SREF - 0.30" 18Z GEFS - 0.30" 15Z SREF - 0.30" 12Z EPS - 0.30" 12Z GEFS - 0.30" 12Z GEPS - 0.30" Clearly the ensemble consensus is still 0.30". We do have some individual runs of globals, mesoscale, and CAMs that are 0.4" or higher. Not to be a Debbie Downer here but it just seems like our 50/50 point is still less than 6". I think the ratios are higher than 20:1 Yeah, I'm expecting historically high ratios. I'm just skeptical that we'll actually reach 20:1. The 19Z NBM has 0.38" of QPF and snowfall of 6.0" for an implied ratio of 16:1. Let's say we go 16:1 and 18:1 and use 0.25-0.35" QPF. That yields 4-6.3". Obviously we could hit 0.4", but how likely is that? |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2021 20:02:40 GMT -6
Posting the 19Z NBM for posterity. Qxx is in 1/100 inch and Sxx is in 1/10 of inch.
Note that the NBM replaces the old model output statistics (MOS) products.
KSTL NBM V4.0 NBS GUIDANCE 2/14/2021 1900 UTC
DT /FEB 15 /FEB 16 /FEB 17
UTC 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18
FHR 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71
TXN 2 8 1 16 8
XND 2 2 4 4 4
TMP 5 4 4 3 3 3 6 8 7 6 5 4 2 5 11 15 12 10 10 11 11 15 19
TSD 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2
DPT -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -3 0 2 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 3 6 5 4 4 5 6 9 13
DSD 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
SKY 89 89 89 89 91 88 91 91 92 88 88 78 67 51 50 38 43 61 83 91 94 90 92
SSD 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 8 18 31 33 35 33 27 25 9 5 6 7 6
WDR 36 1 36 36 36 1 1 36 35 35 33 32 31 32 31 35 4 7 7 7 8 9 9
WSP 12 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 6 7
WSD 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
GST 14 15 13 13 13 14 16 17 14 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 5 6 7 6 6 9 10
GSD 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
P06 64 63 35 70 31 0 0 0 2 25 14
P12 85 84 22 0 27
Q06 5 8 6 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 13 22 3 0 0
DUR 9 10 1 0 0
T03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
T06 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
T12 0 1 1 1 1
PZR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PSN 100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
PPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S06 7 12 8 25 8 0 0 0 0 8 3
SLV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
I06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CIG 27 13 13 13 18 13 7 6 5 6 6 25 15-88-88-88-88-88 90 60 50 27 13
IFC 18 27 29 27 23 27 41 43 47 41 39 19 19 18 9 0 0 0 6 11 15 15 19
LCB 27 13 13 13 18 13 7 6 5 6 6 21 15 27 34 17 60 70 90 44 12 21 13
VIS 40 20 20 20 20 10 7 7 7 20 20100100100100100100100100 50 20 20 90
IFV 21 25 46 46 37 48 55 61 46 31 22 11 10 10 6 3 6 3 6 15 24 25 13
MHT 21 19 16 15 14 16 17 18 15 14 11 9 4 11 19 31 4 4 4 7 4 11 27
TWD 1 2 1 1 1 18 1 1 36 36 35 33 31 33 32 32 3 4 8 8 6 9 10
TWS 16 17 16 15 17 17 17 17 17 16 14 11 7 8 6 4 3 3 4 6 4 8 8
HID 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2
SOL 4 0 0 0 0 9 27 22 5 0 0 0 0 25 52 49 17 0 0 0 0 7 25
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2021 20:04:33 GMT -6
Well the NAM is back to showing almost a foot in the metro
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 20:05:39 GMT -6
00Z nam is insane.
Hires and regular.
We have a little over a half inch so far.
Snow has been very efficient for being relatively light.
In the last 10 mins we have had nickles try filling in but always back to dimes.
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Post by scmhack on Feb 14, 2021 20:09:48 GMT -6
yeah.... I'm glad i took up work on the hotel. Its starting to howl outside. Just the cold wind. Its snowing but doesn't even have a chance to stick yet. I feel like windless i'd be at .5-1"
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 14, 2021 20:10:24 GMT -6
NAM has .53
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 20:10:31 GMT -6
Both NAMS: AMAZING   |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 14, 2021 20:11:15 GMT -6
It's been coming down nicely for the better part of a couple hours now, but it's so dry and windy that nothing sticks to my usual spots--deck rails, grill, patio table. Not sure where it's all going, but I'll still take it.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2021 20:11:42 GMT -6
It's really starting to come down now.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2021 20:12:24 GMT -6
BTW...this is a great site to bookmark. www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_textThe NBM is a blend of the RAP, HRRR, GFS, NAVGEM (yep!), ECMWF, SREF, GEFS, GEPS, EPS, and a bunch of other models. There is also statistical bias corrections applied. It's probably the be-all end-all super ensemble. 920 has been kind enough to post the graphical version of it for us. |
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Feb 14, 2021 20:14:47 GMT -6
I don’t think it matters what the NWS puts out as far as watches and warnings. People don’t read the statements anyway......the WSW for our area clearly states from “midnight Monday to 6:00 am Tuesday.” Yet many folks on social media are bashing the NWS and Mets because they don’t have 8” yet.....I guess the light snow today got them thinking that was the beginning of the storm. Now people think it’s a bust.......then they’ll be complaining tomorrow that they didn’t know.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2021 20:15:18 GMT -6
It's really starting to come down now. You are under some dark returns similar to what I had a bit ago. Nice big fluffy flakes! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 14, 2021 20:16:10 GMT -6
It's been coming down nicely for the better part of a couple hours now, but it's so dry and windy that nothing sticks to my usual spots--deck rails, grill, patio table. Not sure where it's all going, but I'll still take it. I have a protected area in the back yard and I’m guessing around 1/2 inch maybe 3/4 so far |
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